Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by Rush, Jan 2, 2016.
Bowls: Faves 5-0 Overs 4-1
NBA: Faves 5-0
The squares had to clean house!
You didnt see the bowl spreads move much, meaning the books had decent coverage. Even when they claim that they lost, they won. The books have the vig. When they publicly announce that they got beat, it turns into a red carpet invitation... Look here World, you too can beat Vegas...
Not correct. When they have pretty even money on both sides, sure the vig wins out. But that does not happen often. On certain days, the books take a bath, but they win out in the long run.
I have not heard anything specific yet about how the books did yesterday, but those kind of football results do not usually bode well, especially when you factor in the inevitable parlays on favs and some gamblers parlaying their wins on an early game into the later games. I doubt the NBA favs winning made much of a difference, though. On NYD, the public that loves the favs is saving their money to bet on football, not basketball.
I'm amazed at how many people believe that the lines are set to get 50% money on both sides and Vegas just takes the Vig as their payment.
I don't even know how to respond to that. Are you serious? Heavy action can move the line in either direction, and the house aims to be as close to a 50/50 split as possible with heavy action to boost the Vig. Mind boggling.
Yes, correct. It does happen, and as frequently as possible to avoid disaster for the books. This is EXACTLY why lines move. The books have algorithms in their tracking software to establish exactly where they're at based on the action at various stages of the week, and where a .5 point or +/-05 +/-10 ML adjustment would put them. Big action right before kickoff can cause a line to move 1 to 2 points in either direction as the books have to compensate for the 57/43 imbalance by offering an advantageous ML/ PS to get the law of averages back.
Good lord, am I actually explaining this? This is how the books operate. Period.
Nick, you are using the same logic as people who "heard" that the loosest slots are always by the entrance. Lines don't just move based on money coming in. Sometimes the line never moves, even though 80% of the money and wagers are on a certain team. Why? The book respects the plays being made by certain bettors. The line on today's Pit/Cle game hasn't moved, and the books are holding 90% of the action on Pittsburgh.
That tells me one of two things: The squares are the ones all over Pit, or Vegas knows Pit isn't covering this spread.
When favorites win, the books lose. There is no easier math out there. Just look at those two threads by Triple. He's a bookie's dream! All he does is wager on the chalk, and it's almost always a death trap. On the rare days when those favorites rule the roost....guys like him clean up!
If I was betting on a game today, it would be Cleveland. But....One of my axioms is to NEVER wager on the last day of regular season.
This is correct. Most of the time, lines move based on an anticipation of what the sharp bettors will do in response. That also dictates when they move. The only times its different is when it is an event that is getting so much action, the public can move the line. That happens several times a year, but not every NFL weekend.
Nick is correct that the books would ideally like to have even money on both sides. Then they would take their guaranteed 9% and be happy. But that rarely happens, even with line moves. So the book positions are often designed to take winning positions for them
Since you brought my threads up, I feel obligated to comment. I disagree that betting on the moneyline "is almost always a death trap". Look at NCAA basketball yesterday, the higher ranked top 25 teams went 17-1!
I lay the favorite, so I expect to win small most of the time, but when I lose, I do lose big. For the record, I'm up $916 this season on all my bets, winning in football but losing in basketball and hockey. It's all transparent in my threads.
Just having fun, and hoping the Pats demolish the Fish, without any more injuries.
I know you are up $916, but when you factor in what you have wagered.......it's not much money. When I think of teasers, it reminds me of a quote from Ocean's 13:
"Winner! Payout? 5 to 1. But guess what? They're already laying 11 to 1. When they win.....we win!........Nuff said."
I hope you win forever, and it's fun to watch! I just think you are dodging boulders right now.
Happy New Year, and continued success!
Agree UK,,, because no way the money is even at every book in vegas,,,Giving the move the line based on money theory, you literally could have Caesars at a pick and Aria at -10 on the same game? NOT happening,,
Thanks, yup, betting the way I do IS dodging boulders....exciting, LOL!
I'm hoping for a streak where I keep letting my winnings ride, but I can't seem to break the $4K barrier.
The inaccuracies in this post are so numerous that I don't even know where to begin. As maverick as Las Vegas may appear, the corporations that operate in Vegas are surprisingly risk averse.
That can't and won't happen. Let's be real here people. The money isn't exactly even, but no book runs at 80/20 as suggested.
The move the line based on money theory? You are making me laugh. Just stop.
But they do. There are plenty of articles about, interviews with, and podcasts involving sportsbook managers where they acknowledge that happens, especially on public NFL teams. Nick, if you have read something somewhere form a sportsbook manager to prove otherwise, I am happy to be wrong and would love to read it. Tell me where you're getting your info
At the Superbook, the Steelers opened up at -8.5 and are sitting today at -11.5 due to heavy action on the Steelers. The line hasn't moved????????? Let's at least be factually accurate.
3 times in the past week the line jumped and was pulled back by dog action.
So how much money,,in your opinion,, does a book have to be off balance before they move the line? a thousand,,100 thousand?
Pitt now -13, so lots of money came in late on Pitt.
Or it was my money line parlay bet on them!
There are so many variables that there's no answer. Live algorithmic data streams do the work and the oddsmakers/ managers make the call. 1,000 is not even a consideration at any level, but 100k on a Toledo/ Ball State game will certainly move the line. That same 100k on the Big Game, and you're talking about a 4th decimal single digit move which won't trigger anything at the larger books. Floyd Merriweather moves lines with his tickets.
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