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UTH vs Blackjack - best EV considering comps

Discussion in 'Comps' started by DougFur, Feb 10, 2015.

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  1. DougFur

    DougFur Tourist

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    Hi folks,

    Consider two games:

    UTH played with the Wizards basic strat. Element of risk: .57%
    2 deck BJ H17 DAS. Basic strategy. House edge: .45%

    Question: If you played $10/hand at BJ and $5/ante+blind at UTH which would yield the higher EV when comps are considered? Assume no trips bet for UTH.

    This is of course speculation but UTH might come out ahead. Consider:

    Assume comps at 35% theo
    UTH: 40 hands/hr. Rated at $15/hand with 3% edge. Theo: $18. EV: -$4.67. Comps: $6.30. Net: $1.63
    BJ: 60 hands/hr. Rated at $10/hand with 1.5% edge. Theo: $9. EV: -$2.70. Comps: $3.15. Net: $0.45

    Obviously the rated house edge is the big assumption. UTH also has much higher variance. But do these figures seem plausible?

    Cheers

    DF
     
  2. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

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    In my experience, at least with mlife properties, theo on UTH comes out to be very close to avg rated bet, times hours played. UTH does have much higher variance, and even more so relative to how it is rated. Mlife is supposed to rate it at 3x Ante, plus Trips (if played). Some floor people don't know and don't care what game they are rating, so they end up rating UTH as Crazy 4, which is only 2x Ante, plus the bonus bet. If you play UTH anywhere near basic strategy, you will always be under-rated, relative to what you are risking. This should not dissuade you from playing basic strategy.

    It has been awhile since I have had a solid session of BJ and even then, I really didn't take notice of what kind of theo it generated relative to avg bet. There are plenty of BJ players here that can chime in on that. Even though BJ may earn a lower percentage theo, you will play way more hands of BJ per hour than UTH, so in the end it may be very close.
     
  3. DougFur

    DougFur Tourist

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    sindustry: thanks for your input. I know you play a lot of UTH, so your experience is appreciated!

    In my calculations above I assumed UTH would risk 4.1xAnte per hand, so at 40 hands/hr $5/ante = $820 risked/hour vs $600/hr for BJ. So UTH would put more at risk per hour based on my example.

    My hypothesis is that casinos don't bother to judge player skill when rating UTH, but they often do for BJ players (given how widely known BJ basic strategy is). Consequently UTH could edge out BJ when comps are considered. I'm of course ignoring variance.

    I realize it's hard to know. I might have to try this out next month and see how my UTH play is rated. Too bad DTG doesn't offer the game. I'll probably play at the D or Golden Gate.

    DF
     
  4. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    They don't need to; most casinos only rate UTH on the Ante+Blind+1x raise...which requires no skill to play (it's the absolute MINIMUM bet)
     
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  5. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    ...and, Tim... that is absolutely ridiculous... $15 rating on $5 tables?
    I would say, on average, a $5 player is risking an average of $20/hand + whatever he is normally betting on the trips play.
    That casinos would rate UTH play assuming "1X raise" demonstartes their true ignorance of the game.
     
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  6. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    And? LOL
    The only casino that I've found (and I've played UTH in a lot of them) that rates it as Ante+Blind+2x raise + trips (if you play them) is Eldorado in Reno...
    Also...I've never ONCE met a fellow UTH player (at the tables I mean) that played "correct" strategy...
    When they refuse to raise 4x on the correct cards, I always ask them "Would you double on an 11?"...same thing...
     
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  7. DougFur

    DougFur Tourist

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    I agree with that. My understanding is some casinos adjust the Theo calc for BJ based on whether the player is playing basic strategy whereas with UTH they use a common % for all players regardless of skill. If that's true, UTH might be the better value.
     
  8. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Well, we must keep missing one another... I hear nothing but grief from the table - dealers included - when I 4-play my K-7 or my Q-9...I even catch some grief for my Ace-X plays, although not as much. But I do always have fun with those hands after they win - making a point of calling attention to those who criticized my play. (All in good fun, though...!)

    My only variation from 'basic strategy' is that I play trips about 75% of the time.
     
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  9. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

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    Caesars properties (at least PH) will rate UTH at 6x ante plus Trips...essentially, full value. However, I am not sure how their theo calculation compares to mlife properties. I always forget to ask for my stats at Caesars properties.
     
  10. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

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    Unfortunately, they have been tightening up on the rating for UTH and probably all carnival games over the years. I remember reading an old discussion on another board how Venetian used to rate UTH really good. Then they realized, the Play bet actually favors the player, so then they started to cut back on how many units get rated in the game. Then again, Venetian cut back on comps across the board during that time too. One dealer at Bellagio told me years ago that UTH was their highest drop game, so they are definitely making money on the game. I wish they would rate it more inline with what is being risked. I know when I lose, I am multiples beyond the theoretical loss...lol. It is definitely a game with big swings. In a solid session, I expect swings of up to 100x the ante, without any major bonus hands.
     
  11. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    I always tell players who are thinking about trying it out to bring $300+ to play a $5 ante... for me, anyway, that is usually enough to ride out the negative swings.

    I certainly think that a $5 UTH player ought to be rated the same or higher than a $25 blackjack player.
    The impression I got from the 'casinoboss' thread was that it was...although he did not come out and say that.
    Think I'll go there right now and ask the question.
    :beer:
     
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  12. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

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    Totally agree about the rating for this game! As far as I know CET is the only one that gives full rating for this and other carnival games...$5 player would be rated at $30, assuming no Trips. At mlife, I get rated at $250 ($75 ante/blind, $25 trips). When they shaft me, that same bet is rated at $175. Actually, the actual numbers are usually a few odd dollars lower, as if they are not giving full value to the Trips bet (I.e. - $241 and $171). At CET, my same play would be rated at $475. Oddly, even though CET rates much higher, my offers with mlife are far better than my offers from CET.
     
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