1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

Table Games UTH Expected Loss per Hour?

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by TIMSPEED, Nov 23, 2014.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2013
    Messages:
    4,570
    Location:
    Modesto, CA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    001
    Just curious, and this probably isn't the right forum...
    But does anyone have an idea what the Expected Loss is for $5 UTH (Playing perfect strategy, no trips bet)
    Thanks!
     
    Palace Tower Suite!
  2. NickyDim

    NickyDim VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2012
    Messages:
    1,103
    Location:
    Long Island. LV starting in 2016
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    22
    $5 ante = $20 average bet total (between blinds and folds, 1x,2x,3x,4x plays) x 30 hands per hour * 2.1% house edge(WizofOdds)= $12, but good luck trying to lose only $12 for the hour running through $600 in play. I must not play perfect strategy because I usually lose a quick $100 in 10 minutes more often then me playing hours or cashing big after an hour.
     
  3. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2013
    Messages:
    4,570
    Location:
    Modesto, CA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    001
    I got it less than that..I calculated it as only like $3.25, because I thought the HA only applied to the blind/ante (per Wiz of Odds, 2.185c per $1 pet, so x5, x30 hands per hour [at a full table] = $3.25)
    I'm just thinking...because I found a casino that will give me a $20 average for playing $5 UTH, and also give me the same amount of comps PER HOUR while playing it
    So, if my expected loss per hour is only $3.25, and they're COMPING me $20, seems like a decent deal (theoretically, at least, lol)
     
    Palace Tower Suite!
  4. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2013
    Messages:
    3,172
    I cannot comment on expected loss per hour, but based on all of my playing...and I play this game a lot... Plus or minus 20x - 40x Ante is my normal range, per session. 100x Ante has been the high end of the range, at which point, I usually throw in the towel. I had a 100x Ante loss the other night and that happened in just under 1.5 hours. I lost the majority of my 4x bets and when I say majority, I am talking about 90% range. What made it worse is I happened to be in the only seat that was losing. I usually move tables well before hitting the high end of variance, but this particular night, the local casino actually made this a $25 minimum table, which keeps all the table jumpers from coming and going...this was the first time I have seen a $25 table on the main floor. At any rate, I stuck with strategy and took every beat with a smile. I may go back for revenge tonight even though I told myself I would take a break from the locals if I got a bad run...lol.
     
  5. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2013
    Messages:
    9,889
    Location:
    Missouri
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    15
    Yeah "perfect" strategy is 2.185% of an ante. So at 30 hands an hour at $5 is $3.28. If it is 40 hands/hr (I really dunno what an average speed is) it's $4.37/hr. However, optimal strategy is unknown by anyone...so it's probably better to assume your house edge is closer to the Wizard's "simple strategy" which is 2.43%, which leads to $3.65/hr at 30 hands an hour and $4.86/hr at 40 hands/hr.

    However, one other thing to keep in mind is that making a Royal Flush (1 in 32,487 or over 1 in 1000 hours of 30 hands/hr play) is a non-trivial part of the game's return: 500*4*(47*46/2) / [52*51*50*49*48*47*46/(7*6*5*4*3*2*1)] * (20/21) = 1.54% of an ante = $2.31/hr at 30 hands/hr and $3.08 at 40 hands/hr.

    A straight flush is 9 times more likely and pays 10 times less...so that's almost the same influence as a Royal. $2.07/hr for a straight flush at 30 hands/hr or $2.77/hr at 40 hands/hr.

    But if you are getting $20/hr of comp value playing the game at $5 ante, that generally outweighs these considerations, imo.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2014
  6. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2013
    Messages:
    4,570
    Location:
    Modesto, CA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    001
    That's what I was thinking...except going UP, to $10 ante (for $40 per hour in comps)
    This PLUS the inclusion of monthly mailers, etc...seems like a good deal...but as my wife says "It's in RENO!" LoL
     
    Palace Tower Suite!
  7. Aaron5

    Aaron5 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2014
    Messages:
    221
    Location:
    So Cal
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    150
    Planet Hollywood counts the full amount. On a $10 ante they would give you $60 average.

    However I think the variance might kill you.

    Beware of playing for comps. It never seems to work out.
     
  8. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2013
    Messages:
    4,570
    Location:
    Modesto, CA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    001
    $60 AVERAGE...but not $40 per hour in comps.
    I'm just trying to see what I wanna do in 2015...so many options at +EV..but usually none work out! LOL
    It takes luck!
     
    Palace Tower Suite!
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.