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Using "professional" football "handicappers" ?

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by NokTang, Oct 26, 2015.

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  1. NokTang

    NokTang Tourist

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    I just read that the Westgate contest top five picks consensus picks have a winning percentage over 60 percent.

    I have also just read offers of "guaranteed" winners ranging from $19.usd up to as much as $3000.usd a month?

    Who in their right mind pays $3000.usd for football selections?

    This industry has always been an interesting one to me. With the internet, I would have thought there would be less and less of a need for "information" such as statistics and injury reports etc.. Yet, there are more and more "experts" mentioned even on talk radio.

    I've also never understood how they can "release" a pick or picks and assume people won't share the picks with others?

    Have a nice day. Live from Bangkok Thailand. No sports books, no casino's, no internet gambling allowed.
     
  2. Mafioso

    Mafioso Low-Roller

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    You wouldnt happen to be NokTang from AC2 would you?

    99% are scammers
    Only one I trust is Youngstown Connection
    No BS claims
    No Frills
    No 100 unit mega lock pick of the century BS
    just a few plays here and there per week
     
  3. sabre

    sabre Low-Roller

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    The westgate contest uses lines set on a Wednesday that have to be picked by Saturday morning. Hitting 60% on 3 day stale lines in unsurprising.

    Touts prey on the stupid. After factoring in the vig and tout fees, you have to run at 55%+ on your picks, depending on the ratio of the tout fee to your bet size. This is not doable.
     
  4. Snidely

    Snidely VIP Whale

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    Just follow me around the sportsbook and the bet the opposite of whatever I do. You'll be rich in no time.
     
  5. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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  6. NokTang

    NokTang Tourist

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    By Wednesday, the line has been hammered by the "smart money" I would assume. I'm surprised by your concept that waiting until Saturday would make such a big difference. Couldn't someone just wait until Sunday and make straight bets using that philosophy? and according to your remark, win 60%?
     
  7. NokTang

    NokTang Tourist

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    Yes. How are you? I've been living in Thailand for about eleven years. Not been back to AC since breaking a "bar owner"s leg with a baseball bat for trying on the "permanent barfine" scam on a friend of mine. If you are interested, he ended up happily married without paying such extortion and the "owner" left the country head and leg hung low. Foreigners pimps, the worst of the worst.
     
  8. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    That's not a good assumption. The sharp money will always jump in when the line is to their liking, but for the most part, that time comes as you get closer to game time. I know this from a buddy that used to work as a runner for a pro gambler. And I have been in many a sportsbook early on a sunday and observed young guys carrying in duffel bags full of banded cash to place wagers
     
  9. metalpest

    metalpest Low-Roller

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    If these guys knew what they were doing, they would be betting these picks. From what I've heard, they never bet their own picks. They are all scams.
     
  10. Imperial_Palace_King

    Imperial_Palace_King High-Roller

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    Youngstown, OH??
     
  11. Imperial_Palace_King

    Imperial_Palace_King High-Roller

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    Lol.
     
  12. NokTang

    NokTang Tourist

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    What sort of limits are we talking about for NCAA and NFL Football, at a Las Vegas sportsbook? I see the stuff posted by Floyd Mayweather(last year) but I don't know if it's all show or if in fact they will take a million dollar bet on a regular season game? Kind regards for the opinion in good taste above.
     
  13. Mafioso

    Mafioso Low-Roller

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    Glad to see your still alive and kicking Nok, my handle on AC2 was mafiaphats if you remember.
    I gave up that life long ago my friend.
    Married a great woman from Ilocos Norte we have 2 kids and Iv never looked back.

    Ill never forget the pay after discussions on AC2, those were epic and you pissed off every bar owner there lol especially Mo
     
  14. Mafioso

    Mafioso Low-Roller

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    Youngstown connection is what they are known as but the website is sportsbetadvisors

    they only charge on the day they have selections and it runs about 25 dollars if they have 1 or 2 selections when they have 3 or a rare 4 selections they charge 50 bucks

    they are golden as far as Im concerned
    used them on 4 vegas trips so far and am never dissapointed.
     
  15. NokTang

    NokTang Tourist

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    Yeah mate, I've slowed down my "monger" life as it was, as well. Thailand is so different. Mo had those "meetings" at the big "table" inside Kokomo's to decide how to respond to my postings daily.....it was a real laugh. How can anyone justify buying "out" a local girl from another foreigner? Great going on a normal family life. I envy you. I never have had that but did make some differences here in Thailand. Helped one lady save her eyesight, paying for said procedures required to save her second eye. Retina about to collapse and a cataract. It felt very good saving someone's eyesight. Long story short, many in the third world are afraid to seek out help knowing they can't afford it. I've also taught some English along the way and the Thai teenagers are a real joy to be around. Real smiles, not the fake one's like in "GoGo" bars. I do remember your handle but time has just passed as you say. I predicted correctly facebook and twitter would be the last straw for most "message" boards. This one seems friendly enough and I"m thinking about a move back to Las Vegas. I miss the Prime Rib! I can get steaks here, but no Prime Rib??? Okay, back to it......BTW, there is a "legal" sportsbook in Phnom Penh now. www.nagaworld.com
     
  16. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Depends on the book, the event, and whether the gambler is known to them. Some books will let Mayweather bet those absurd amounts because they know he is nto a professional and, likely, a lifetime loser.

    Most NFL and college football games are big enough and have enough action that a larger book would not blink at taking a 10k wager. A couple times I have asked and they have let me bet more than that (but only a couple times). For smaller events, they won't let you bet as much because of the exposure. I have observed books limit bets to no more than a thousand on hockey and small school college basketball games. I recall reading once about three or fur years ago that a book turned away a 10k bet on the Royals to win the WS (before the season started) because a bet that size created too much exposure for them
     
  17. sabre

    sabre Low-Roller

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    No, the actual lines are constantly adjusted. You don't lock in a line until you make your wager. In the case of injuries, lines will be off the board earlier in the week until the key player injury status is clearer.

    You can sometimes make profitable bets on parlay cards by picking off stale lines. Those lines are published early in the week and don't change. However, parlay cards have horrendous odds, requiring the lines moves to be significant in order to gain an edge. Additionally, if there's a huge line move it's not unusual for the book to eliminate that game from the card. Also, if you try to put significant money down on parlays using all games with lines that have moved significantly, there's a great chance your bets will be restricted or outright rejected.
     
  18. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    I agree with this. I almost never make a move until Sunday morning when I can get up-to-date injury information. And, injury information isn't published by the teams until Wednesday afternoon at the earliest.

    The chart represents line move counts (simply the number of times the spread or total was moved per day) according to the information on covers.com for 5dimes. Each series is a different with the away team representing the series in the legend.

    I found it most interesting that the least amount of line movement is on Wednesday... correlation with injury reports?

    linemoves.jpg
     
  19. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I would guess (and its just a guess) that when you're talking about NFL, there is enough public square money on the games to move the line. And since most of the public money comes in closer to game time, the sharps are waiting for the public to move the line before placing their wagers. If there is enough sharp money, it can move the line again. Short answer: more action means more line moves and the action comes late in the week
     
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