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Ufc 194

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by captainron62, Dec 12, 2015.

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  1. captainron62

    captainron62 VIP Whale

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    I am picking Romero, Weidman and Aldo.

    I am thinking of doing a crazy 4 or 5 fight paylay to make it fun.

    I am hoping Romero can take advantage of Jacare's suspect chin before getting submitted. Romero is a physical beast, but Souza is no slouch in that department either. Jacare's cryptonite

    I think Weidman is one of those special fighters that just finds a way to win. Tough as nails and talented everywhere, hopefully he can figure out Rockhold's range before taking any big shots.

    I think Aldo will go back to being the beast he was when he first got the title. The question will be McGregor's movement and if Aldo can keep up. If Connor had a couple more fights at a high level this pick may change. I just think Aldo is better where it counts and only worry about the size and power difference. Aldo can't eat too many shots from Connor, one mistake can end it just like it did for Mendes.

    If you believe that McGregor's knew was that messed up in July and that is why Mendes took him down at will then you would have to worry about his movement being too much for Aldo. If you believe his is just that easy to take down then Aldo should be able to control the fight. If this fight stays in the center of the ring it is bad for Aldo, he needs it to get down and dirty.

    I need a good win, I think PPHOLD is mad at me for our loss last night. I thought Mendes and Edgar would go the distance.......
     
  2. reedy

    reedy Low-Roller

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    Love the Aldo pick. He was a +160 dog at the start of the week and has been pounded down to a -120 fav last time i looked today. Aldo is the better fighter. That said Dana would not be to happy if two of his most marketable stars lost within 3 months of each other.
     
  3. captainron62

    captainron62 VIP Whale

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    Yeah crazy! The sharp money is coming in. Hes beat down to -115 on Bookmaker. I am waiting a bit and hoping the Irish money comes in late. I will probably hedge the big parly with a safer bet just in case, but this is going to be a great night of fights.
     
  4. trsopko

    trsopko Tourist

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    I would stay away from Weidman-Rockhold, but would be confident enough to put up a sizable amount on an Aldo/Romero parlay if I was in Vegas for these fights. It would have been even better to get them both as underdogs, but I still think parlaying those two is a good value bet...I like both of their chances more than the odds they are currently being given.
     
  5. pd54

    pd54 Low-Roller

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    Aldo favourite here too, just about.
    I've (hopefully) attached a screenshot from betfair exchange.
    image.jpg

    They are decimal odds and convert to Aldo -103, McGregor +202
     
  6. captainron62

    captainron62 VIP Whale

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    Aldo is now -120 and McGregor even on Bookmaker.

    I think Weidman will be okay, looked great at weigh in. He fights smart and I think that will be the difference. I think he won't panic and get in trouble. He will have to survive a storm but he can take a pretty good punch.

    Lots of money came in on Romero late and pushed him down too. Crazy betting going on!
     
  7. pphold

    pphold pp Park Place Degenerate

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    1 out of 3 is not good for Today's picks. I think I'm gong to bet against your picks from now on Ron. I would make money instead of lose money if I did that.
     
  8. reedy

    reedy Low-Roller

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    At least it didn't take very long for me to be wrong.
     
  9. captainron62

    captainron62 VIP Whale

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    I won 4 and lost two last night, so do want you want it's your money. You asked me, I didn't ask you.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Haha, same here. Wow, no one saw that coming, I guess the emotion just got the best of Aldo.
     
  10. captainron62

    captainron62 VIP Whale

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    Romero saved me. I had him in a parlay with Holloway and Faber to hedge the risky bets of Weidman and Aldo. Faber scared me a bit, so did Romero but at least the underdog pulled thru. I ended up ahead for the night at least but no with the big win.
     
  11. reedy

    reedy Low-Roller

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    Figure there has to be a rematch after that.

    In July, Rousey/McPaddy headline???
     
  12. chess

    chess VIP Whale

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    captron: where is aldo at ? LOL
     
  13. captainron62

    captainron62 VIP Whale

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    That is what I am hoping, hotel already booked. You know Connor will have to be on that card. Dana saying Frankie gonna get the next shot though, that kinda sucks for Also the guy is undefeated for 10 years and just got caught. McGregors manager said after fight that is his last weight cut and hes moving up, but who knows.
     
  14. captainron62

    captainron62 VIP Whale

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    Probably just woke up! With a big ole headache!
     
  15. captainron62

    captainron62 VIP Whale

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    I am never changing my pics again. I had Rockhold and McGregor until Thursday and out thought myself. Thankfully my parlay with Romero made my money back but I could have had a really big hit.
     
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