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Thoughts on this parlay?

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by zNaturaL, Dec 13, 2014.

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  1. zNaturaL

    zNaturaL Low-Roller

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    Going to Vegas 1/1 and while the lines may change a bit, I am thinking of picking the following teams for a 4 team parlay. Thoughts?

    FSU (+9.5) over Oregon
    Bama (-9.5) over Ohio State
    K State (-1.5) over UCLA
    Tennessee (-3) over Iowa


    Really don't plan to change my mind on Bama and K State but the FSU and UT picks are a little questionable IMO..
     
  2. DaiLun

    DaiLun R.C., L.C., and A.A.N.G.

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    Oregon Is going to beat FSU by at least 10, so your parlay is out the window already.
     
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  3. spicole

    spicole Low-Roller

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    I agree with DaiLUn, I think Oregon will cover.

    More importantly, I also believe OSU will not only cover but will have an excellent shot of winning outright.

    Regarding the other two picks: I have liked KSU all year long against the spread. I watched a couple of Iowa games this year but absolutely have no idea if Tennessee will cover or not.


    Another tactic:
    If you think you have enough time between the two games on Jan 1, and again on January 2, then you should wager each game separately, then put the entire winning amount on the next game. That way you avoid giving away the additional edge to the house. For example, let's say your 4-wager parlay pays 10-1 and you bet $100. If successful, you'll make $1,000. If you make each wager separately (assuming -110 line on the bets) and roll the payout to the next wager, the payout will be $1,328 ($1,228 profit).

    If you think you will not have enough time between the two games, you can make a two-wager parlay for the games on Jan 1, then bet the winnings on the two-wager parlay on Jan 2.

    Good luck!
     
  4. zNaturaL

    zNaturaL Low-Roller

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    Thanks for the heads up!

    I really think Oregon will start strong and FSU will be playing from behind again, but they have a way of winning/keeping games close enough to climb back into them. I guess it all depends on how far out in front Oregon gets..

    I also think Bama will overpower OSU, especially Cardale Jones. Yes he played well against Wisconsin, I just don't think it'll happen against Bama..

    Tough call!
     
  5. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    I agree with your thoughts on Alabama-OSU. OSU has not played a defense anywhere near the caliber of Wisconsin let alone with Cardale Jones at QB. I think OSU will keep it close for a half then Bama will pull away pretty handily and win something like 38-20. So I'll be on Bama -9.5.

    As for FSU-Oregon, it's a game crap shoot. Oregon is rolling now but remember they did lose to Arizona, they same team they also beat down recently, so to say they are volatile is a fair statement. The same goes for FSU and the fact they don't lose but can't beat mediocre teams by more than 6 points. If I had to pick a side against the spread I'd take Oregon -9.5. I will look at the Total a little closer as the game approaches, if FSU can hang around then I think it easily cracks the current 72 number. If Oregon rolls it will likely be under as the rest of their blowouts seem to be.

    I gave up on parlays a while back when I realized I was throwing away money doing it. Not I stick to individual spreads and totals and if I get out a good amount may take a run at a parlay but why give the house more edge than the -110 odds already. But to each their own.
     
  6. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    This.
     
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  7. thunderdave

    thunderdave Low-Roller

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    Iowa is coming off a HUGE disappointing season with a super easy schedule. Tennessee is thrilled to be bowling again.
    The team that wants it more will win.
    TN will win easy.
     
  8. zNaturaL

    zNaturaL Low-Roller

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    I'm still kind of a noob at sports betting. I don't really understand how money lines work. Can anyone give me a quick rundown?
     
  9. Krh2o

    Krh2o MIA

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    Money line bets are just strait up bets. You pick the team that you think will win. The odds numbers are based off of a $100 bet. If Team A is favored and listed as -185, you must bet $185 to win $100. If team B us the underdog listed at +210, you bet $100 to win $210. Most casinos will take $10 bets so then you will move the decimal accordingly.

    Some advice on betting bowl games I have learned over the years is that if its not for the title, it's hard to predict which teams will try and which are just there for the trip and the swag. This time of year coaches are working for other jobs or hoping to keep theirs, plus recruiting. Players are taking exams. They only can practice a fixed amount of days. They have not been practing regularly since their final regular season game. I've always been bitten by teams in bowl pools or by betting. Good luck.
     
  10. arrgy

    arrgy Tourist

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    The average rule of thumb is: if you think the underdog will win you should bet the ML {+whatever the number is}, if you think the favorite will cover the spread then bet against the spread, if you think the favorite will not cover the spread then take the points.
     
  11. Sinatraatthesands

    Sinatraatthesands Low-Roller

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    It wouldn't surprise me at all if Oregon won that game by 28. I think you can find a better 4th option than that game.
     
  12. OhioStateAlum

    OhioStateAlum Low-Roller

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    I actually think Florida State has a good shot to win the game straight up.
     
  13. Terry Benedict

    Terry Benedict VIP Whale

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    I think Florida State will cover. They have succeeded under pressure more this season than Mariota has in his three years.

    And missing Ifo is HUUUUUUUGE. Having him would have shut off the receiver on Jamison's left, now missing him will not only open it up, but move over the linebackers and safeties, which will open up the middle and right, too. And it will open up draw plays too.

    I think Bama is going to beat up on the kid Ohio State has a quarterback. Hopefully it doesn't cause future emotional issues.

    I don't know much about KState. Are they still a scoring machine? If they are I'd pick them. If it's close I would pick UCLA because I think Mora won't panic and his confidence will bleed to his players.

    I don't know much about the next game either. But I'm surprised Tennessee is good enough for a late bowl game. Oregon embarrassed them when they played.

    I'll check back on this thread in a week or two and own up to my misses.
     
  14. Terry Benedict

    Terry Benedict VIP Whale

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    Good call.
     
  15. thunderdave

    thunderdave Low-Roller

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    I'm going to quote this so I can brag. It's not often a team wins this easy.
     
  16. bedaniels

    bedaniels Low-Roller

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    Ouch, hope you didn't bet big.
     
  17. DaiLun

    DaiLun R.C., L.C., and A.A.N.G.

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    I made money on Oregon. I took a parlay Oregon and over and took a straight bet on Oregon.

    Covered the loss by Alabama.

    I took another parlay on Oregon and Over for the Natl. Championship and another straight bet on Oregon.
     
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  18. spicole

    spicole Low-Roller

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    OP - how did you end up betting this weekend?!?
     
  19. Terry Benedict

    Terry Benedict VIP Whale

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    Well, I realized a few months ago that I absolutely suck at sports bets.
    I proved it with my last post.
    No bets.
     
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