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This guy milked some comps big time

Discussion in 'Comps' started by pleepleus, Oct 14, 2015.

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  1. pleepleus

    pleepleus 2016 - The monkey is back

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  2. firstkill

    firstkill High-Roller

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    maybe hes just really lucky.

    cuz 6 hours at 250 a hand can get ugly really quickly if things are not your way. I bet 1 bad shoe can wipe out 5k with some bad doubles/splits...

    fk
     
  3. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    Wow good for him!
     
  4. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

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    Damn...that's a lot of cruising! I get free cruises from all my local casinos, plus Mlife and CET in Vegas...I have yet to book any of them.
     
  5. pphold

    pphold pp Park Place Degenerate

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    Me too sindustry. I've picked up free cruise vouchers on promos but have yet to book one with them. Cosmo has a NCL cruise give away this month.

    I like cruses and use to go once a year but stopped taking them about three years ago.

    If you are are known player most independent host can book you on a cruise if you agree to give them play time on the ship. Keep in mind it is not like land based casino comps. They have you trapped on the ship so they expected more play at the table. I would say about double.

    Most people confused what the land based casino offers and teaser or host and casino lead way as what they would get on a cruise ship. They want real Theo to comp the cruise and like the article says 6 hours a day at $250 avg.

    So a 7 day cruise is 42 hours min at the tables with $250 average. That is a lot of play.
     
  6. Packer

    Packer VIP Whale

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    Omg pphold that would be impossible for you! 42 hours over 7 days? Lmfao! I could just see you on board, after 9 minutes you would say, "can you get me the helicopter to take me to the next ship?"..
    I too must have 20 vouchers from past years and never used one. I've never even been on a cruise. I should probably try it with my 8 year old before I get too old.

    The guy in the article sounds familiar. Good for him..
     
  7. hammie

    hammie VIP Whale

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    Great article. It mentions he played multiple spots at one time, 5 spots at $50 per hand vs. one spot at $250 a hand to slow down the bets per hour and reduce the variance.

    I sometimes play up to 7 spots on my BJ simulator, it helps me with basic strategy and I notice the swings in my "bankroll" are not as great. I'm a low roller and this made me think about playing 3 spots @ $10 per hand.
     
  8. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Forget the variance of how quick it can go South. It might be in the realm of possibility that he somehow ended up up 21k, but we are taking 6 figures of theo at minimum. And with something like 70000 hands not a lot of variance left. If he's not an advantage player, he is the luckiest sob in history.
     
  9. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Anything that reduces swings DOWN also reduces swings UP, and swings up are rather the whole point.
     
  10. VegasSchemer

    VegasSchemer Low-Roller

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  11. hammie

    hammie VIP Whale

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    We all agree on the goal, but given the conditions of his comp, how would you have done it?
     
  12. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

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    Hahaha...and even though he is stuck on a floating box, I bet he still wouldn't make it to the pool...lol
     
  13. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    If he was counting cards and reduced the number of spots when the count was high enough in his favor, he could play one or two spots for a higher amount on each spot, keep variance in his favor for longer since he wasn't burning through a lot of cards, and probably not attract too much attention since he wasn't really upping his aggregate bet (i.e., still wagering $250 each deal).

    Aren't cruise lines notorious for high house advantage though? I still think he got extremely lucky.
     
  14. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Paid for the cruises or stayed home.

    He talked in terms of risk, but assuming the whole tale is accurate (and it is published on the tour operator's site) it goes beyond risk. His expected loss is well above what the cruises would have cost otherwise. And over 200 days at 6 hours a day, multi-hand, he doesn't even stand a great chance of deviating significantly from it.

    His approach let him slow down the game a tad, and it kept him from a crushing defeat earlier, but it also should have made his losses even more inevitable.

    Lets say 300 hands an hour (60*5), 6 hours a day, 200 days, $50 a hand. Assume solid rules and solid play for a .5% house edge. That would have him expected to lose 90k. He won 21k. That is a variance of 2220 units from the expectation over

    His outcome is somewhere in the neighbourhood of 0.1% likely. To have an outcome better than just paying 36k (loss of that or less) is about only a 10% chance.

    So selling his plan as a cheap way for a young guy to see the world is kind of ridiculous. If it happened, good for him. He's an outlier.
     
  15. Malibugolfer

    Malibugolfer High-Roller

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    Nevyn said what I was thinking. And, given the variety of ships he was on, I would highly doubt he played against anything below a .75 HA if not (much) higher.
    I read a review last week of a cruise with 7/6 (not 6/5) bj pay out. And 6/5 is common.
    One lucky dude.
     
  16. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    I don't think that would be a great approach. The best counts tend to come closest to the shuffles. Cutting down to 1 hand at a time reduces your number of hands played at the better count.
     
  17. TheCooler

    TheCooler Professional Gambler and the Best Football Handica

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    I find it interesting that this article is on the website of the company he went through.
     
  18. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    I still think this guy was terribly lucky if he didn't count/vary his bet size, but I didn't get the impression the dude was on the cruise ships the full 200 days. He just wanted to visit all 7 continents within that time frame. I think it's unclear how many days he spent on the ship.
     
  19. JeJas

    JeJas VIP Whale

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    I also think he was just very lucky.
    He could have easily lost 100K instead of won 21K during that process.
     
  20. JeJas

    JeJas VIP Whale

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    It is just an advertisement of the company.
     
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