1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

Theoretical Loss on slots

Discussion in 'Comps' started by LA2VegasTrekkers, Feb 11, 2013.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. LA2VegasTrekkers

    LA2VegasTrekkers High-Roller

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2010
    Messages:
    665
    Location:
    Hollywood
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    40
    OK, so quick, dumb question. If you're purely a slot player, is your theoretical loss the same as your real loss, generally? If I look at my Win/Loss statement from last year and I know that I never left the casino with more money than I went in with, is that it? Thanks!
     
  2. StormHawk

    StormHawk High-Roller

    Joined:
    May 13, 2011
    Messages:
    944
    Location:
    Des Moines, IA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    6
    I would assume that theo would be your average per hour put into their HA formula? Could be vastly different.
     
  3. JDinTN

    JDinTN MIA

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2012
    Messages:
    338
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    10
    No your actual loss could be more or less than your theo and usually is for most players. The theo is just the average expected on your type of play based on the house edge. It doesn't account for how much good or bad luck you have.
     
  4. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    814
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    I would imagine that for the most part, slot players probably see the biggest swings in their actual results vs. their theoretical loss, simply because it has the wildest swings in variance. You could sit down at a slot machine and take one rip and hit the 10k jackpot. And you could also sit down at a slot machine, throw in 100 bucks, spin 50 times on a dollar machine ($2 max bet) and not hit even a cherry and simply run bad a whole trip. Because of the "jackpot" nature of slots, the swings are a lot wilder than at the table games which is going to result in a bigger disconnect between your theo and your actual loss.
     
  5. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

    Joined:
    May 4, 2009
    Messages:
    11,112
    Location:
    TN
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    19
    Exactly as the last player said. With $5 or less, you could win $10,000, $50,000 or even millions.

    You can never do that on any table game. Never. Ever.

    You can also play $1000 in slots and win zero. Very,very rare that happens on a table game.
     
  6. stuntin909

    stuntin909 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2011
    Messages:
    240
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    15
    Yeah I wish I never got into slots. WAs strictly a table player before I caught the degenerate bug.
     
  7. trooth

    trooth Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2010
    Messages:
    251
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    4
    So I take it you had a big hit first few times you played. i put in a 20 and hit for 80, went to another machine put in 20 and hit for 250 in a matter of 5 minutes. i have been hooked ever since.
     
  8. stuntin909

    stuntin909 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2011
    Messages:
    240
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    15
    Yeah haha. I caught a Quick Hit bonus that retriggered (didn't know what was going on at the time). $5 turned into $300. Did it again 5 minutes later. Then put $5 into keno while waiting for friend to use restroom, boom another hundred lol.

    It's never been that easy since...
     
  9. LA2VegasTrekkers

    LA2VegasTrekkers High-Roller

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2010
    Messages:
    665
    Location:
    Hollywood
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    40
    OK. This all makes sense, so does it mean that you could figure your theoretical loss based on your Tier score, for example, with CET Total Rewards? Since every Tier point is $5 (obviously, this is excluding the new bonus tier points)...
     
  10. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

    Joined:
    May 4, 2009
    Messages:
    11,112
    Location:
    TN
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    19
    Depends. Are you trying to figure out your theo loss, or what the casino figures is your loss?

    The casino looks at the BIG BIG picture. In reality, most people have a 100% loss as individuals, most of the time. The casino on the other hand does have to make some payouts, sometimes large ones, so their number is considerably different.

    For example, you could easily have two people go into the casino with $1000 to play slots.

    Person A : Plays the $1,000 with some little wins here and there and eventually earns 800 tier credits, but walks out with a $100 or so left over.

    Person B: Plays through enough to get to 800 tier credits as well, but hit a $4,000 jackpot along the way.


    So, what is the theo?
     
  11. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Messages:
    4,188
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    Its still tricky.

    You can use the above to figure out your coin-in, and maybe guesstimate theo from there.

    But unless you know what the hold % is on the machine you are playing, coin in won't give you theo.

    With table games and VP, you can figure this out based on the rules. With slots, you don't know the number, and it could vary machine to machine.
     
  12. StormHawk

    StormHawk High-Roller

    Joined:
    May 13, 2011
    Messages:
    944
    Location:
    Des Moines, IA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    6
    I think there is some confusion/miscommunication going on in here. Someone please check out my formula.


    Let's say you average 8 hours per day of play at $1 a spin or roughly $300 coin in per hour for 3 days. The hold is say 4% on the machines you play.

    (300*8*3)(0.04)=288 or a theoretical loss of $288 over the course of your 3 day trip. Comp value of roughly $28-$50 depending on the comp rate of where you play.



    Did I do that right?
     
  13. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    814
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9

    Right formula, wrong assumptions. 4% would be a pretty low hold on a slot machine, unless you're playing off-strip somewhere. It's probably closer to almost double that for most lower denom machines in Strip casinos.

    Also you typically get around 30-40% of your theo in comps. So you're looking at more like 170-230 in comps.
     
  14. LA2VegasTrekkers

    LA2VegasTrekkers High-Roller

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2010
    Messages:
    665
    Location:
    Hollywood
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    40
    Dead Horse time

    OK. So here's what I know.

    First trip of the year so far was this month for three nights comped at Flamingo in GO Luxury with view of the fountains and a $100 food credit. This is typical of what we get.

    Two full days gambling

    Host confirms 32 hours total gambling

    4,812 total Tier credits earned (2,000 of which are bonus)

    So, that means $14,060 coin in

    My husband and I play side by side both on one card betting between $0.70 and $3.00 a spin each on the newer pop-themed video slots. Mostly the lower end, we only press up when winning.

    What, if anything can I tell from this?

    All the math I'm doing seems to indicate around 200 spins an hour each, which seems really low...

    I'm not worried about being under comped or anything, this is just a puzzle I want to understand and, clearly, I'm missing some pieces. Thanks for the education.
     
Tags:
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.