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Theo vs Actual Loss

Discussion in 'Comps' started by Naturaleight, Feb 21, 2013.

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  1. Naturaleight

    Naturaleight High-Roller

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    I was speaking to my host about my win/loss and he said I had 18k in theo, but actual losses of 39k last year. More than double!

    Are casinos theo's usually this off, or am I just running badly? How do casinos compensate for being so far off?
     
  2. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    That isn't far off. Twice your theo is within normal parameters. Since you play baccarat, without even bothering with the math just think about it this way: your theo loss is approximately 1 bet per shoe, does losing an average of 2 bets per shoe sound so far-fetched?

    As far as them compensating you...well its a casino. If they were kind enough to give you a reach-around after screwing you they would probably consider that being generous.
     
  3. Naturaleight

    Naturaleight High-Roller

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    lol...rofl
     
  4. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Yeah, that's pretty normal. Last year I had a pretty substantial theoretical loss, but actually came out ahead for the year
     
  5. Naturaleight

    Naturaleight High-Roller

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    Ahead for the entire year? In all the years I've been gambling that has NEVER happened to me. I am a bit jealous.

    What is your secret?
     
  6. sailboat310

    sailboat310 Low-Roller

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    Theoretical loss and actual loss are two different animals. Comps are mostly based off of a percentage of theoretical loss. Over a period of time, statistically a player is bound to lose a certain amount. Actual loss is the actual amount you lost.

    If you are lucky you can rack up large amount of theo and still be up. This is my love /hate affair with the aria. They treat me like crap there but I haven't had a losing trip there yet.
     
  7. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    On my last four trips my theo loss was right around $4000 total. I finished down closer to $13,000.
     
  8. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    theo vs actual loss really has no correlation in the short term. if you play long enough (millions and millions of plays) the theo should come close to the actual, but over such a short timeframe like a few trips in a year, it's almost always going to be off. if you have a good year, your actual loss will be less than your theo (even positive). if you have a bad year, your actual loss can be many times as big as your theo.
     
  9. BLNT

    BLNT High-Roller

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    It sure can! :eek:
     
  10. Nittany1

    Nittany1 VIP Whale

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    I'm running real,real bad right now.
    Last 4 trips actual loss is 4 times theo_Ouch!!!
     
  11. Viva Las Vegas

    Viva Las Vegas Ramblin' Gamblin' Man

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    Two factors which may create a permanent gap between actual loss and a casino's theoretical loss rating for your play are skill set and types of wagers. Many gamblers either think they play correct strategy but they fail either marginally or significantly. Other gamblers like to place wagers on bets with higher casino advantage, and are shorted on theo rating for this risk.

    Skill

    Video Poker players are rated at the game's highest EV. If you do not use / know strategy charts, your actual losses will exceed theo losses. You must also play full coin for bonus RSF payouts or your actual will exceed theo.

    Blackjack Some casinos will consider skill level for your rating, but unless you are playing optimal strategy, your actual losses will exceed theo losses over time. Bonus side bets will also impact your actual vs. tracked theo experience.

    Wager Type
    Wager type will also impact theo vs. actual loss rates if your rating does not take into account your types of wagers at certain games.

    Craps A player will lose a lot more playing hardways, field and other gimmick bets than one playing pass / come bets w/odds or don't players. Some casinos will not rate odds bets, but gimmick bets will push your actual losses above theo losses.

    Pai Gow Your play is worth very little to casinos unless you play those profitable side bonus bets. If your theo rating is not adjusted for the adjusted odds impacted by the side bets, your actual losses will exceed theo over time.

    Roulette: Your actual and theo should be in sync for these games, assuming correct rating of amounts wagered and time played.

    Slots: Assuming you are playing max coin in to play bonus rounds / win bonus payouts, your actual loss should mirror theo loss.

    One factor to consider is some slot clubs will provide less points for coin in for certain machines (I'm looking at MILFe, but there are likely others). Also, slots pay different pre programed rates, rates which you cannot pinpoint on a specific machine.

    In general, higher denomination machines have a better theo, and standard bar machines which the casino owns have a better theo than machines which casinos owe licensees a commission, penny / nickel machines and also fancy video games or huge novelty slots (think the Bally's enormous slot) typically pay much lower than the average expected payout at the denomination played. Since most slot clubs rate players based on coin in, the typical player will earn more comps playing $1 or $5 slots with max coin in vs. the same total amount coin in playing a penny, nickel or quarter machine.
     
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