1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

Table Games Theo For 3:2 $50-$100 vs 6:5 $25 Blackjack?

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Jackpot Johnny, Jul 18, 2016.

  1. Jackpot Johnny

    Jackpot Johnny Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2016
    Messages:
    172
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    170
    OK, I'm a math dunce even though I understand odds, house advantage and try not to play stupid games. Can someone help me with an idea of theoretical loss per hour for playing the not so good 6:5 Blackjack at a $25 dollar table vs. biting the bullet and playing for an hour at a $50 or $100 table with the better 3:2 payoff?

    For the discussion let's assume perfect basic strategy, usual Strip games and whatever would be an "average" number of hands per hour.

    Obviously, my purpose is to determine whether I should ever be seen near a 6:5 Blackjack table, even if it's just for fun over a short term to bet at a lower limit table. For some reason there's something offensive to me about 6:5 Blackjack, even though I'll sometimes take a break from dice or Blackjack and play the worse 3 card poker just because I like the game and the volatility. Unfortunately, my first 3 card experience playing was a great win so I was semi hooked. Fun game, but you better catch a few of the better hands or you'll be sorry you played. House advantage is higher than you might like.

    I am not a high roller-usually take about $1000 per vacation day, but if I lose half of it in a day I pull myself back from the edge. On most trips I wind up within a $2000 range up or down-I never go on tilt and don't often win a lot-this year I'm ahead after two trips. Usually, if you see me betting a black chip now, as opposed to in my youth, it's money I won, not money I brought. Except for the stupid 6:5 games I'd probably always be a green chip bettor, occasionally pressing up when winning-just trying to see how much it might cost, on average, to just up my limits and always play the real game. Obviously, I'm trying to win, but reality often intervenes.

    Thanks.
     
  2. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Messages:
    4,188
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    First things first. If you can't find a 3:2 game at $25 you are not looking hard enough. If these are the alternatives you are looking at, I would simply find a $25 3:2 game.


    As to your question though, first some assumptions.

    Hands per hour: 60 (you can change this as you like, does not matter as results will stay in proportion)
    50/100 rules: 3:2, S17, DAS, 8 deck, no RSA, no surrender. House edge approximately .43096%
    25 rules: 6:5, H17, DAS, 8 deck, no RSA, no surrender. House edge approximately 2.00291%

    $100 expected loss per hour: 100*60*.0043096 = $25.86
    $50 expected loss per hour 50*60*.0043096= $12.93
    $25 expected loss per hour 25*60*.0200291=$30.04

    So yeah, you'd lose more OVER TIME at $25 6:5 than $100 3:2 with perfect BS.

    But that is not the only factor. Assuming you flat bet and have the same bankroll for either, the higher bet games will have a much bigger variance. You will bust more often and faster, but your wins could be bigger when you have them.

    By the way, you don't even really need to do assumptions on hands per hour to figure out 6:5 is worse. The odds are 4.65 times worse between the sets of rules I listed. So the long term theoretical expected value will break even at 4.65 times the bet size.
     
  3. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2013
    Messages:
    9,886
    Location:
    Missouri
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    15
    Another thing to consider when playing 25 vs. 100 is that you will likely even have a bigger advantage at $100 when you factor comps in.

    But like Nevyn said, if you can't find $25 3:2 BJ on the strip you aren't trying hard enough. I think all CET properties offer 3 to 2 at $25+ (some as cheap as $10).
     
  4. meyers67

    meyers67 High-Roller

    Joined:
    May 30, 2013
    Messages:
    703
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    30
    I think there is one rule that answers this question: NEVER play with 6:5 rules.
     
  5. Jackpot Johnny

    Jackpot Johnny Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2016
    Messages:
    172
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    170
    Many thanks, Nevyn. This is what I thought and was the point of my question. I can stand to bet more, and I can handle most of the inevitable fluctuations at the higher amounts-it's just a matter of reforming my brain to the higher bet and risk of busting. I've always been the first to counsel the always correct advice of never making a bet which makes you uncomfortable or risking more than you afford to lose. Fortunately for me, I am ok with getting up, walking away and doing something else, even if I were disappointed at sitting down and getting back up in short order. Luckily, my risk tolerance will always kick in before I reach anything approaching my ability to absorb a loss. Intellectually, what I do understand is that over a year's worth of betting (maybe 20 days in Las Vegas total) my theo would be a fairly low vacation entertainment expense (20 days, times 4 hours a day max, times 25.86=$2068.80). Like most anyone who plays very much I've had much bigger swings than that, even on $1 video poker. (and on video poker you now usually have to play $5 or $10 to find a 9/6 Strip machine)

    We stay at Wynn, and I asked the question based on not leaving the house to go over to TI or Mirage, or somewhere else, to play at lower limits in a 3:2 game, although it's looking to me like MGM properties are also resolute in being less attractive to green chip players. Sometimes I'm plenty lazy enough to just stop playing rather than go shopping for the best 'deal.' At the extreme, I figured if I got in a cab and went downtown to play at the Four Queens, the round trip cab fare would even it out if I was only playing with $1000. If I played more hours, or for more money, I'd certainly shop, but I don't really play for odds or comps-just don't want to be a chump.

    I used to be a black chip player, and I'll probably go back to it. Not any level of play that would pile up comps at Wynn, but we've always paid our own way and then said thanks for any comps we get-better that system than feeling pressure to play any set amount of time or for amounts more than I want to spend.

    6:5 Blackjack and double odds craps bother me, but the only way for anyone to protest is simply not to play.

    Again, I very much appreciate the assistance. Being on VMB is like having a lot of really smart friends.
     
  6. Jackpot Johnny

    Jackpot Johnny Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2016
    Messages:
    172
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    170
    Good advice for me and everyone else. Yes, yes, yes.
     
  7. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Messages:
    4,188
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    According to Wizard of Vegas, Wynn does 6 deck shoes and hits soft 17 until you get up to $200/hand.

    If that is accurate, it changes the numbers a little House edge spreads from .63873% in the good game to 1.99842% in the bad, which is a little over 3x worse. So you would lose more at $100 than $25 in the bad game, but only a bit. And $50 in the good game would still be way better.

    It says the good rules can extend down to $25 but that may not be at times you like to play.

    And wow, if that is accurate it is pretty ridiculous. 100 bucks a hand and still no S17?