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Video Poker Specific Coin-in with Limited Bankroll: What to do?

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by TIMSPEED, Feb 5, 2014.

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  1. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    So, I'm needing to put in $8000 coin-in per day on my next vegas trip...
    I have quite a bit of choices on HOW to do it...but I'm limited by my bankroll ($300 per day; $900 total to put in $24k)
    I think I've narrowed it down to two choices:
    1.) $1 9/6 JoB (Single Line; $5 a pull, must play 1600 "hands" per day)

    OR

    2.) 10c 7/5 BP (10-play QuickQuads; $6 a pull, must play 1334 "hands" per day [Multiply that by 10 though for TOTAL number of actual hands played])

    I'm thinking the 10-play would get me there more likely...but the payback by the numbers if 99.5% vs 98.3%. I'm just worried that $300 per day wouldn't be enough to achieve $8k coin-in on the single liners...

    Any insight is appreciated..
     
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  2. Tubbs

    Tubbs High-Roller

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    Looking at the first option and equating it to $5 play, you would be hoping to get $40000 coin-in from $1500 bankroll per day.

    That is a non-starter! Of course, you could do it. Hit 4OAK regularly or a couple early on and no problems. But $1500 can go very quickly at that level.

    Equating it to $0.25 play, you would want to achieve $2000 coin-in on a $75 daily bankroll. At 500 hands per hour that is over 3 hours play. How confident would you be of playing over 3 hours with an initial $75 in the machine? Not very!

    Basically you are severely under funded for option 1. The same probably applies to option 2 but I'll leave others to comment on that. :beer:
     
  3. bardolator

    bardolator Lifelong Low Roller

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    Others can do the math. I have run through $500 in just over an hour of dollar 9/6 VP, which at my moderately fast pace was maybe $4000 coin in, so I agree that you are underfunded for that play. The more plays you make, the closer to the true odds you will get. Yet a game that pays under 99% seems a bad choice, too. Are you sure you have no third option?
     
  4. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    Not really...
    HOWEVER, I've played MANY TIMES like this (albeit MORE; like $10k coin-in) on the same amount and it's never let me down (I think the worst loss I suffered was $200 on a $10k coin-in)

    I'll probably end up doing the single-line route...
     
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  5. Tubbs

    Tubbs High-Roller

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    Obviously it's not just about the profit & loss at the end of the session. A $300 loss on $8000 coin-in represents 96.25% return, so a reasonable expectation. But the loss might have been $500/$800 before hitting quads or better late in the session. Perhaps someone can plug the $8000 coin-in and $300 bankroll figures into a Risk Of Ruin calculator. I would expect the percentage to be high.

    If you are saying that you have never been more than $200 down at any time when getting $10k coin-in on $1 machines then you are one impossibly lucky guy.:peace:
     
  6. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    Doesn't anyone else see an issue with this statement?

    "needing"
     
  7. mgill1974

    mgill1974 Low-Roller

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    Why do you "need" to do this? Playing for comps usually is a recipe for failure in my experience. I am strictly a VP player and $300 a day on $5 a pull wont get you anywhere, except to the nearest ATM! With your bankroll, stick to quarters, single line. Good luck!
     
  8. bjpcyclone

    bjpcyclone High-Roller

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    Get lucky and hope for some wins early. I, as have many others, have lost that amount playing quarter VP.

    Good luck to you though.
     
  9. Scot

    Scot Low-Roller

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    I'd suggest hammering the 25 cent 9/6 JoB at the Boars Head Bar for about 8 hours. Add in the scratch cards and you are much more likely to succeed.

    I went through $400 at Sam's Town on 9/6 JoB in about 45 minutes on Saturday. I had played some quarter video poker there as well, and only had 6000 coin in there.
     
  10. numeno

    numeno VIP Whale

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    You just better pray for some early 4OAKs. :) I am shocked that you have never been down $300 in a day while playing $1 JoB.


    It will just come down to how your first day goes. Did you get yourself a little cushion or did you have to dip into your next days funds? :)
     
  11. dankyone

    dankyone VIP Whale

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    I do not have time to find a calculator which can run a "risk of ruin" analysis on your situation--but my gut tells me you have (much) less than a 50% chance of getting there on the single line machine. Of course if you are lucky and hit more than your share of quads you will make it and you may well win.

    Again, my gut tells me you have a better chance on the 10 play machine even with the less advantageous pay table since the variance is reduced and you get to the long run quicker.

    Finally, and again with no mathematical backup, if you truly need $8k on three separate days, it probably gives you a better chance of getting there if you continue to play if you are down more than $300 on day 1. For example, you might have to buy in for $500 but wind up the day down only $200. If you had stopped at -$300 you wouldn't have made it to your goal.
     
  12. Malibugolfer

    Malibugolfer High-Roller

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    You have gotten some really good advice IMHO. My only comments would be, even without running the calculation, that your RoR would be really high. And, in my experience, "needing" to get a specific return from the tables or machines never works out well.
     
  13. kiwiboy1

    kiwiboy1 Low-Roller

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    Here are some numbers I ran for you:

    $1 single line JOB, playing 1600 hands with a $300 bankroll would have a 60.3% chance of ruin. Your chance of breaking even or better is only 27%
    10c 10-Play BP QQ, playing 1334 hands with a $300 bankroll would have a 61.5% chance of ruin. Your chance of breaking even or better is only 25%

    Quick Quads is quite a volatile game! I have played 10 play 8/5 Bonus in quarters and lost more than a thousand in an hour on a few occasions.

    Honestly your chances are not good!
     
  14. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    On the bright side you should have an exciting time since every single time your push the button will be so nerve-wracking! :poke:
     
  15. Kobra2848

    Kobra2848 Low-Roller

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    Back in November I got the 1800 tier credits I needed at Planet Hollywood by playing the 100 play poker over two days. I lost very little but got real lucky getting dealt some nice hands ( full house,straight and one quad )
    Mark
     
  16. dankyone

    dankyone VIP Whale

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    I assume these numbers are correct. Therefore you have about a 40% chance of meeting your goal each day. SO, your chance of making it through the 3 days assuming you are only willing to risk $300/day is .4*.4*.4=.064.

    Only a 6.4% chance this works--you need a different plan.
     
  17. 2VegasNuts

    2VegasNuts High-Roller

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    A little off topic, but I must be doing something wrong. I play correct 9/6 JOB and can burn through $300 on a $1 machine in an hour on many occasions and fall way short of $8,000 coin in.
     
  18. numeno

    numeno VIP Whale

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    While it still isn't good odds, I don't think this math is correct. If you fall within that 40% on the first day, you will have somewhere between 0 and $X amount remaining. You can add this to the next day and therefore day 2 has a better than 40% chance.
     
  19. swuulumm

    swuulumm Low-Roller

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    does someone have link to a risk of ruin calculator or could post the formula?

    didnt find anything on google within 5 seconds :( :beer:
     
  20. dankyone

    dankyone VIP Whale

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    You are correct, but the OP said $300/day, not a $900 total bankroll.

    If he allocates the entire $900 upfront and all remaining amounts to following days, he will have a much better chance.
     
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