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Table Games Roulette Strategy with rolling commission

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by natedog666, Feb 17, 2014.

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  1. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    I was just at Resorts World Sentosa in Singapore for the weekend, great place with crazy limits! At Baccarat you can bet 500-500k on one hand. (1.2 Singapore dollar = 1 US dollar).

    My question is I saw a guy betting 2k on every number of the roulette wheel except for 0. (Single 0 wheel)

    Now I asked the host what his rolling program was and it was a 2.2% commission on winning bets.

    He would lay out 2k*36 = 72k per roll.

    He would get .022*70k +70k+2k his original bet (not a zero of course) per roll.

    His only profit being .022*70k since he lost all the other numbers.

    He had two roulette tables constantly running. Won 400k....guess he hit a long stretch without a zero.

    Does this strategy make sense?

    Most casinos in Asia use rolling programs, my commission on baccarat is 1.2% on winning wagers. Works if you are winning or breaking even, sucks if you lose.
     
  2. MoneyToBurn

    MoneyToBurn Low-Roller

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    With 37 numbers, wouldn't the expected loss be 0.0270, or one in 37? If so, that should be worse than the commission, or is it more involved than I think?
     
  3. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Those are generous terms. The house edge is still negative of course, it works out to 0.62% instead of the normal 2.7%. But since his actual probability of winning each hand is over 97% its a decent strategy if you have the appetite for a lot of small wins and risking one loss wiping them all out.

    For him to win 400k he would have to have won around 260 hands net of all losses, and each of those losing hands takes an addtional 47 wins to make up for it. He got very very lucky.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2014
  4. geoff

    geoff Low-Roller

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    lots of people just don't understand math.. a few months back i saw a guy at mohegan sun playing back and purples on EVERY number on a double 0 wheel.. some number she had maybe 3-500 with 2 or 3 clusters with around 1k straight up plus splits.

    he didn't last long (he was gone maybe 15 minutes later when i walked by again.) this was outside of the HL area so i think he was just trying to show off and get some attention...
     
  5. Dweller

    Dweller Low-Roller

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    Do Vegas casinos offer this rolling commission as well? I never heard of it here but would like to ask. I won't play 72k per spin but will play 7.2k (200 per number) and would like to try this strategy as well.
     
  6. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    I don't think any place in the US offers it. Australia and Asia I know does. But to get the 2.2% you have to be betting a lot...otherwise it is lower.
     
  7. MikeOPensacola

    MikeOPensacola VIP Whale

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    I've seen this strategy used in Vegas several times. The losses are horrific. As far as risk/reward goes this is way over the top, IMHO.

    :peace: :beer:
     
    Annual Summer Bliss in the Land of Milk and Honey!!!
  8. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    This math is interesting to me. You said he's getting "2.2% commission on winning bets." But $70k represented his losses. $2k represented his winning bet.

    So, according to your math, it appears he was getting commission on his losing bets? Or maybe I'm just lost...
     
  9. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

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    As long as a zero does not hit, the player will win one number. That one number wins $70k. His rolling commission is based on that $70k. What may be confusing you is that his losing bets also total $70k, so his net is only his commission.
     
  10. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    Ah... that's what it is. I assume the $70k was the loss since it was represented separately from the win + original bet.
     
  11. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Couldn't he more-easily have just bet $35K each on red/black, odd/even or 1-18/19-36 and make the same amount in commission?
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  12. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    Hmm...he would lay out 70k to wash only 35k. Lose 70k if 0 hits. The other way he lays out the same 72k but washes 70k every spin...lose 72k if 0 hits.
     
  13. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    So, the commission is on 'total bets lost' not on total wins. Guess I misunderstood.
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  14. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    No, but natedog didn't mention an important detail that isn't obvious to US players. The chips the guy was betting were non-negotiable (aka rolling or dead chips) that can't be cashed. He only gets winnings paid in cashable chips. So this way he washes 70k in chips each spin if 0 doesn't hit, versus 35k in your example.
     
  15. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Got it. That makes more sense! thanks.
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  16. firstkill

    firstkill High-Roller

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    natedogg, since the table max is so high with baccarat, then when doesn't he just put 100k on player 100k on banker.

    I assume, if he played long enough, his rolling % will over come the banker commission.

    if not, then you get a friend to bet against you at the same amount.

    FK
     
  17. Red&BlackSmoke

    Red&BlackSmoke Low-Roller

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    Ok maybe I am slow but how many nonnegatable chips did he have to get up 400k on commission only?
     
  18. Red&BlackSmoke

    Red&BlackSmoke Low-Roller

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    I don't think they were promo chips. I think he was betting 72k and winning 70k on any number hit plus his 2k bet on the number. Plus 15400 commission. So in reality he was betting 72k to win 17400 on any number hit other than a 0. He would have to hit 26 in row without hitting a zero to be up 400k. 15400x26=400,400.
     
  19. Red&BlackSmoke

    Red&BlackSmoke Low-Roller

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    Sorry I left a zero in my math it would be 260 spins not 26
     
  20. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    Rolling commission on baccarat is much lower because the house edge is much lower. I get 1.2%, but must roll at least 1m. Since he's probably the same level with his bets, he will be about the same. 1.2% will not even come close to overcoming the house edge. The whole point of the rolling program is similar to comps in the US, giving you a little bit of the house edge back...just in cash.
     
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