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Table Games Roulette money management but still want to have fun

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by natedog666, Feb 27, 2013.

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  1. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    So my upcoming trip is ticking down to 2 weeks, and I've been thinking long and hard about my money management or lack thereof on the last trip.

    I also have taken into consideration the rush factor, so don't want to smallball myself and not have a good time.

    So far, for roulette, I've looked at the following:

    In Progress

    1. Take out 100k at Roulette, 50k seems too small. Bet a 5k cross at 1k progression places on 17,20 or 6k cross at 2k progression (2k on number). 3k neighbors and Orphelins (will be some rebate). Total Bet = 12k or 14k

    or

    2. Bet a 500 unit cross + 1.5k Neighbors + Orphelins = Total bet = 6k
    Results

    or

    3. Bet a 500 unit square (with corners including point) + 1.5k Neighbors + Orphelins = Total bet = 9k

    Hit

    1.
    17 = 35k or 70k + 68k+7k+6.8k = 116.8k or 151.8k
    20 = 35k or 70k + 68k +7k + 3.4k = 113.4k or 148.4k
    16,18,20,21 = 17k
    14 = 17k+7k+3.4k = 27.4k
    23 = 17k
    1 = 7k + 7k = 14k
    34 = 3.4k+7k = 10.4k
    25 = 7k
    6 = 7k + 3.4k = 10.4k
    2 = 7k
    33 = 7k
    31 = 7k + 3.4k
    9 = 3.4k

    Total numbers where there's a win = 8
    Total numbers where there's a push or less = 8
    16/37

    2.
    Same as 1 but 1/2

    3.
    17 = 17.5k + 34k + 16k + 3.5k + 3.4k = 74.4k
    20 = 17.5k + 34k + 16k + 3.5k + 1.7k = 72.7k
    16,18,20,21 = 17.5k + 8k = 25.5k
    14 = 25.5k + 3.5k + 1.7k = 30.7k
    23 = 25.5k
    1= 3.5k + 3.5k = 7k
    34 = 1.7k + 3.5k = 5.2k
    25 = 3.5k
    6 = 3.5k + 1.7k = 5.2k
    2 = 3.5k
    33 = 3.5k
    31 = 3.5k + 1.7k
    9 = 1.7k

    I see that 1 and 3 have similar outlays, difference only 3k, but it seems to spread out the hits a little more especially on the 8 numbers that pay off for me.

    I'm thinking a combo of the two, betting 1k crosses + 500 on the corners + 1k on the Neighbors and Orphelins. Total will come to 9k + 3k + 3k = 15k

    So for 100k, I will have 7 spins only....but if I hit one of those 8 numbers I will be happy, and if the 17 or 20 comes, I will be very happy!

    Another alternative is to go by 50% on everything and do 7.5k a spin.
    That will double my spins to 14, but if I hit the 17, 20....and nothing else, I will still lose.

    So what would you do fellow roulette fiends? Go for broke in 7 spins or go with 14? Either way it is a longshot but there's different satisfaction levels involved here. Another question is that should all winning chips go into a separate pile that doesn't get recycled in? Or do we see it as giving us more spins to potentially hit a 17 or a 20?

    I'm interested in a discussion on roulette bankroll management, not in a discussion on how roulette's a bad game, and I will go broke eventually....I know that just by going to casinos in the first place...this is entertainment and talking and playing out different strategies is entertainment for me...:)
     
  2. BKCallaway83

    BKCallaway83 Tourist

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    Hey Nate, what numbers exactly are the neighbors for the 17,20.
    Orphelians?
     
  3. Wazza

    Wazza Tourist

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    So at my local casino at the weekend i played a pressing 'system'.

    First roll £10 on my favourite 10 numbers.

    Outcomes: hit win £360-100 up £260
    Lose - down 100

    Roll two - if won roll one place 9x£10 on the numbers that lost, amd press the previous winning number to £150

    If lightning hits twice (it did on number 33) you are very happy and leave.

    Otherwise repeat as above.

    I love this because you can win a lot, but if you lose you get plenty of action for your bankroll.

    Nate, just add a zero to the above!
     
  4. numeno

    numeno VIP Whale

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    I like playing a number or 2 and then the splits/corners on that number. The 17/20 is perfect since they are next to each other. :)


    Single bets 17/20

    Then place a chip on each bet on the outside of 17/20.

    Splits
    16/17
    14/17
    18/17
    21/20
    23/20
    19/20

    Then fill in the corners at the corner of this rectangle as well.

    You can add in the 17/20 split as well.


    So 17/20 win big
    14/18/21/23/19/16 win 17X + the 1-2 corners
    15/24/22/13 win 8X(still a loser, but not terrible)


    At $1k/bet that would be 14k or 15k depending on 17/20 split. You could knock it all down to 500/bet, or even some of the splits to 500.
     
  5. dmr

    dmr Registered Abuser

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    You guys are definitely outa my league!
     
  6. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    It is basically those numbers I listed. The Orphelins also cover the number 9, and some of those numbers are not covered by the Orphelins.

    I'm playing a single zero wheel, just in case some people are confused...so the 17 and 20 are on almost opposite sides of the wheel.
     
  7. Tellafriend

    Tellafriend High-Roller

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    Sorry Nate, but I will bet you $1k you don't stick with your scheme. ONce you start losing or winning your inner gambler will press it up harder.
     
  8. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Nate after reading your reports its hard to imagine you'd enjoy the conservative approach that allows you to just bleed more slowly while giving up chances for a big win. It's just entertainment as you rightly say, and since there's no better/worse plays odds-wise my opinion is go for the strategy that'll get your adrenaline flowing.
     
  9. thedukeofdublin

    thedukeofdublin Low-Roller

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    +1

    Would have to agree.

    I admire your optimism but knowing your tilt meter (only from your own posts mate) I see any mgt system being thrown out the window after a few loses.

    I hope I'm wrong btw & good luck my man:thumbsup:
     
  10. Kiwicol

    Kiwicol Low-Roller

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    There is another factor in this Nate which you need to think about.

    How big a part of your trip is roulette?

    In my case I love the game and want to spend at least a few hours a day playing it - even if my luck is out. So my budget and betting strategy needs to be set taking that into account.

    So my vote is if you are happy to walk away after 7 spins - go the big bet. If you want to enjoy some time around the wheel, you may have to pitch lower (or increase the bankroll:wink2:).
     
  11. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    I think this trip will be mostly baccarat just because we have all these baccarat players in town. Although I'm hoping to hit it big in the first roulette session and get them all hooked....
     
  12. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    The lack of confidence in my anti-tilting abilities makes me sad :cry:

    But you guys are probably right on!:evillaugh
     
  13. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    The only way to do it is have a stop loss amount per session and have your assistant there to fine you if you break it. Other than that go for broke because we know you will anyway :)
     
  14. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    Yeah, that's still happening, so maybe I will collect 1k in Bellagio chocolates from Tellafriend....
     
  15. thedukeofdublin

    thedukeofdublin Low-Roller

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    That made me laugh tbh...............You know it yourself mate:peace:
     
  16. thedukeofdublin

    thedukeofdublin Low-Roller

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    Unless his assistant is a UFC fighter, Professional wrestler,boxer, private security guard or a trained ATA&E agent (Anti-Tilt Advisor & Enforcer) then you may forget about it:Þ:Þ

    Just thinking about this and if you have a good assistant i suggest you just go and have fun and bet whatever takes your fancy but this assistant must act upon you hitting your SL limit.

    Just have fun with it pal:thumbsup:
     
  17. bswim

    bswim High-Roller

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    I've always been good at math, looking at all these numbers reminds me why I only play a little on the slots when on vacation. Makes my head hurt just looking at it. LOL

    I'm just messing with you :beer: Love the posts and trip reports!!
     
  18. blackjacker2

    blackjacker2 Low-Roller

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    Nate

    I like your thinking but here’s a 9 spin alternative sequence, for roughly the same buy in you were planning

    This is covering the neighbours of 17 and 20 only, so 10 numbers in total. It keeps it simple. You are covering over 25% of the board so I am hoping you will win at least twice, maybe more. If you don’t win at all, well there’s the gamble, you know that better than me

    So here goes my approach for you – I am calling it ‘Nate’s 99K Niner’

    Spin 1

    $500 on 17 and 20 neighbours (10 bets) + $500 each on 17 and 20 on the inside (do not split with $1K as it pays only 17/1)

    If you hit a neighbour = $17.5K win plus $500 stake back
    If you hit 17 or 20 = $35K plus $1k stake back

    If you miss, you are minus $6K

    Spin 2, irrespective if you have won or lost on Spin 1, same numbers but up the stake, so $750 on the neighbours and extra $750 on 17 and 20 (12 bets @ $750 = $9K)

    If you hit a neighbour = $26.25K win plus $750 stake back
    If you hit 17 or 20 = $52.5K plus $1.5k stake back

    If you miss again, you are minus $15K

    Spin 3, irrespective if you have won or lost on Spin 1 or 2, same numbers but up the stake, so $1k on the neighbours and extra $1K on 17 and 20 (12 bets @ $1K)

    If you hit a neighbour = $35K win plus $1K stake back
    If you hit 17 or 20 = $70K plus $2K stake back

    If you miss again, you are minus $27K

    Keep doing the same numbers and stakes for Spins 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9. It doesn’t matter if you win or lose on any spin the bets remain as above.

    If you get to the end of the sequence and have lost everything, get your trusted minder to drag you away, or you will have to pay a fine! (Your rules not mine). No tilting allowed. If you have over $99K in front of you at the end of the sequence, bank that and if you are feeling lucky start it all over again.

    I like your original proposal; this variation is not far off it, simpler in my view and should be fun. There is a degree of bankroll management, it is at the stake levels you seem comfortable at and I hope on a hot streak would payoff really well. The anti-titling mechanism is built in, if you don’t stray from the stakes suggested and should hopefully stop the wild swing you had on your last trip.

    I am interested in your thoughts on if it has potential for you. In any event, I would love to watch you try it between 14 to 20 March when I will be in town. PM me if you want to discuss.

    Regards

    Blackjacker2
     
  19. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    Thanks Blackjacker2!

    Finally a good discussion on an alternative plan!

    I did realize the 17/1 payoff on the splits are a little less than the straight up, so I've been messing with my bets a little to see if I can get more out of it.

    Basically your spread has straight up bets on 10 numbers, extra on the 17 and 20 (1k each). I assume by neighbors you are talking about the actual Neighbors bet and not the numbers on the board. So 10/37 chance of hitting for a profit.

    I like the progression, but you are basically increasing even when you miss, which I usually don't like to do. For streak bettors, they usually like to add chips when they hit.

    So looking at the outlay, it is 6k, 9k, 12k, 6k, 9k 12k...27k for a 3 roll progressive, so about 10-11 rolls.

    One problem I have is that it doesn't cover 16,18,19,21,23 which were good numbers for me previously as well....

    I have an alternative with straight up bets

    Neighbors 3k
    1k on 16,18,19,21
    2k on 17,20
    1k on 23
    Total = 12k

    Payoffs
    Neighbors all 10.5k
    16,18,19,21,23 = 35k
    17,20 = 70k

    15/37

    I think if I wanted to do a progression I can do 1/2 of the above to start, and then the same progression as yours if I hit...

    Edit: Remember that only Wynn gives me 2k straight up progressive, Palazzo gives me 2k anyway (so I can bet 2k straight up) and 1k progressive, most other places including Cosmo and CP only gives 1k straight up max.
     
  20. blackjacker2

    blackjacker2 Low-Roller

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    Hi nate

    thanks for the feedback. Whatever you do has to suit you as it is your entertainment and bankroll. I like your new approach detailed above and if you want to cover those extra 'lucky' numbers, it looks like a sound strategy.

    In my post I neglected to say it was the neighbours on the wheel and that it was best to play on a single zero european style wheel. On the latter, the least edge you give the casinos the better.

    I offer a further alternative approach, which you may like to consider, this is what I will call the 17/20 Bookends Arc. The idea is to bet all the numbers straight up from 17 through to 20 (in a clockwise direction). That is 17 bets, it misses some of your favourite numbers but not the big ones. You would be covering 17 of 37 numbers, so just under a 46% chance of hitting any of the numbers. I have a friend who is an avid roulette player and he divides the board into four segments, which he calls north, south, east and west. He searches for a dealer who favours particular sectors and then goes in to bet on those, normally two sectors next to each other. If the dealer changes, he stops immediately. I tell you this as the 17/20 arc of numbers, is going to work much better if you can find a dealer who is hitting regularly within that arc of numbers. It may take a little finding and patience, but that builds up the excitement of when to jump in. We all know roulette spins have no memory, but some dealers do seem to hit the same spots on the wheel and of course any tips you are giving them, is going to get their further help. So what betting strategy could you use? well as you don't like to bet higher after a miss I suggest the following

    Bet $500 on each number and $1K on 17 and 20 (15 @ $500 and 2 @ $1K) = $9.5K per spin
    A hit will pay $17.5K and a 17/20 hit would obviously pay $35K

    You have enough for 10 spins at your suggested buy-in, but if you hit you may like to press with an additional 250 on each of the core numbers and double up on 17/20. Reverting to the original after a loss. That increase would cost you 15 @ $250 = $3,750 and 2 @ $1k = $2K total = $5,750. A modest increase, which preserves profit and allows for further 250 increases on the 15 numbers, but you will have reached the $2k max on 17/20. so no further pressing here. On a decent streak those 15 numbers could yield some serious returns and hitting the Bookends of the arc with a BOOM on 17 or 20, well that is what you will be looking for.

    I realise this at bit more complicated for betting as the numbers in wheel order would be

    17, 34, 6, 27, 13, 36, 11, 30, 8, 23, 10, 5, 24, 16, 33, 1, 20

    But it would be better to try to remember them for betting purposes in numerical order, or have them on a little card to refer to as follows:

    1, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 16, 17, 20, 23, 24, 27, 30, 33, 34, 36

    Of course you now have several approaches to try out during your trip. It would be fun if you had the luck to try them all.

    regards

    Blackjacker2
     
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