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Video Poker Risk of ruin maths question help please :)

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by simonay, Jun 3, 2015.

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  1. simonay

    simonay Low-Roller

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    So the lowdown, i need to get $150k of coin in on a 9/6 video poker machine on an upcoming trip.

    My bankroll for this task is $2500 and my question is, what level would you play at to achieve this or give yourself the best chance to while not wasting your life away pressing the buttons.

    I also have the option of single play, triple play, 50 play, 100 play and spin poker.

    What would you go for and why?
     
  2. Stevie D

    Stevie D VIP Whale

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    A bigger bank roll
     
  3. simonay

    simonay Low-Roller

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    Indeed, how large would you need?

    I have more than that but its just what i'd like to set towards this challenge, is $25 ($5x5 single line JoB) too rich for these numbers?
     
  4. Stevie D

    Stevie D VIP Whale

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    GChrome would be good one to ask as he puts in some big numbers. Am I wrong in thinking that $5 per hand would be something like 80 hours of gaming? So you'd have to play bigger numbers. Bigger numbers bigger variance.
     
  5. simonay

    simonay Low-Roller

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    Interesting way of looking at it, supposing i had 16 hours to spend over a few days and that i averaged 500 hands per hour, that would mean i'd need an average bet of about $19 assuming the variance didn't get me...
     
  6. Jordan

    Jordan Caveman

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    I like to play multi line STP and DSTP. Either for quarters, (60 or 70 per spin) or dollars 18 or 30 per spin, depending how it's going.

    On an average day, I guess I'd run 50-75k coin in. There have been multiple days/ points during the day when I've been down 3-4k. Unless you have a substantial BR....a lot more than 2500, I'd stick with quarters if I were u, I don't have patience for the one line games and don't play them but I would imagine it would require a substantially less BR, than multi line STP.
     
  7. Jordan

    Jordan Caveman

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    I'm curious why do you "need" to get 150k coin in?
     
  8. meyers67

    meyers67 High-Roller

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    You can play 5-play (at $25 per spin). You should have a bankroll of two royals ($8,000).

    Most likely you will break even if you get one royal, or lose 4k if you come up empty.
     
  9. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    ..

    LOL...so true though! $2500 is TIMSPEED level of optimism here! :evillaugh

    This sounds about right for a strong chance of success, imo. Chances are even better with 3 play dollars for 10,000 "rounds", but that would take a 500 round/hr player 20 hours to complete.
     
  10. simonay

    simonay Low-Roller

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    I did almost put need within bunny ears, i don't 'need' to do anything really but i'd like to. Essentially i'm about 25k cosmo points short of Platinum and i'm going there with 2500 freeplay, it felt like i could possibly cycle that round, reach platinum and fulfil their gambling expectations of me retaining good offers for next time. IF i don't make platinum on this trip then i won't be back before my status expires. I like playing the slots too so i'd essentially like to use the freeplay to get as close as possible. i guess there will also be another $100 of freeplay added for every 60k coin in but i do get that its a longshot to do it purely off the 2500...

    Its a mini challenge to keep me entertained, every possibility i get bored/drunk and throw it away on the slots instead :)
     
  11. Stevie D

    Stevie D VIP Whale

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    Do you earn points on FP at Cosmo?
     
  12. simonay

    simonay Low-Roller

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    I don't think so, so technically its $152,500
     
  13. HuskerBB

    HuskerBB Low-Roller

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    You started by saying you were going to play 9/6 JOB. That will by itself limit your options as Cosmo. I wonder if there is any 9/6 JOB in the place. I have not looked it up (check out the VPfree website to see) but I am pretty certain you are not going to find any single line $1 9/6 JOB machines there. Maybe at $5 - and I am sure it would be at least $5 to find a multi-line machine w/ 9/6 JOB. I would be curious what machine you choose and really whether you find any 9/6 JOB at Cosmo.

    Went back and looked and you just said 9/6 - I assumed by that you meant 9/6 JOB as that would be a full pay machine. Maybe you are going after some other form of 9/6 machine where that payback would not be full pay - but obviously house advantage of the machine you play has a significant impact on the risk of ruin calculation.
     
  14. simonay

    simonay Low-Roller

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    Yeah i had a look on the VPFree website, very useful indeed - http://www.vpfree2.com/casino/cosmopolitan-las-vegas

    It suggests the best odds are 9/6 JoB in the high limit area. I haven't really seen the $1 spin deluxe machines, whats their minimum max bet anyone know?

    I guess ideally i'd like a multiplay video poker machine at about $25 a spin or $15 for a single line but don't know if thats achievable. The first one on the list is a 50 play with a minimum bet of $12.50, i assume that wouldn't be with the 800/4000 payout for the royal flush and so that would have to be $60 a spin to get maximum payback %?

    Maybe i'm overthinking it and just go for the 98% Bonus poker... i dunno, i just like thinking about it haha, its like a pre-trip report for me :)
     
  15. Malibugolfer

    Malibugolfer High-Roller

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    I too would like to see the RoR math but my guess is, given your goal and financial means you're thinking of doing it with, is your RoR is in the 25- 30% range.
    Maybe higher.
    Your "assuming the variance didn't get me" is optimistic for sure.
     
  16. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    If you want to exercise some risk, try your luck on BP or DB, hit the right side of variance and then switch over to JoB. Don't hit the right side of variance and you'll figure out much quicker whether or not your goal is feasible... rather than getting 20 hours in, being 20k short and having crushed your BR already.

    That's what I'd be tempted to do with such a low BR.
     
  17. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    If you're doing this at cosmo, I'd play the 50 play 9/6 jacks for quarters in the high limit room. But to increase your chances of success, do NOT bet all the lines. On these machines you're allowed to bet 5 per line on as few as 10 lines by adjusting the bet via the touch screen. Spin Poker and STP games can be adjusted in the same way. If you want to play faster than $12.50 per round, you can play more lines than 10, but the more lines you play or upping your denomination, variance and risk of ruin goes up. I wouldn't play more than 20 lines ($25) at a time.

    Another advantage of these machines are you won't get a tax form on a single royal.
     
  18. simonay

    simonay Low-Roller

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    Great thoughts and info guys and gals, i think i'm going to start out with the 50 play 9/6 JoB for quarters as tringlomane suggests and see how it goes, the $2500 isn't my bankroll, its my offer which i'd like to use as productively as possible, if i can qualify just using that i should have about $250 in identity play rewards, $250 annual resort credit and guaranteed space available upgrades for the second part of my stay there as well as meeting the play expectations then that would be gravy... then i can go and focus on enjoying the slots and the tables over the following days.

    So it doesn't matter if i come up a little short as then i'll actually move to my bankroll for the trip, probably another $4-5k but obviously if i bust out way short i'll rethink my plans...

    Good thoughts about the Royal, i'm guessing 800 x $1.25 makes it $1000 if one hits along with any various wins although i'm from the UK (hence me replying in the middle of the night for you generally) so they don't normally withhold the 30% as i've got the ITIN ready prepared...
     
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