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Question on ADT vs Average Bet for Comps

Discussion in 'Comps' started by Kickin, Nov 30, 2012.

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  1. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    I've been reading some of the uber-moneyed trip reports from guys like natedog666 and jillyfromphilly and have been loving reading about the high-roller action. They mention a lot about Average Daily Theo loss (ADT) as it relates to comps which makes sense but I also know when I've spoken to hosts or the players club desk they often quote me back my Average Bet (which is obviously related to ADT).

    Which matters more? Logic would dictate ADT should be all that matters because that is what the casino is expected to make off of you. But what if you drastically REDUCE your average bet but INCREASE your ADT by playing longer? Does that work in your favor for comps?

    For example lets say jillyfromphilly normally bets $1000 per hand at blackjack for 4 hours per day (I know he bets more than that but just for simplicity). Again for simplicity lets say they assume 1% house edge on BJ and 100 hands per hour. His ADT would be:

    $1000 * 100 * 4hrs * 1% = $4000.

    Now lets say he is bored and just wants to get drunk and mess around and sits down at a lower limit table playing $50 per hand for another 4 hours as well that same day. His expected loss this session would be:

    $50 * 100 * 4hrs * 1% = $200

    So his ADT is now $4000 + $200 = $4200, it increased but his AVERAGE BET decreased to ($1000 + $50) / 2 = $525.

    So would the casino increase his comps since his ADT was higher than usual or decrease them because his Average Bet was lower than usual? Assuming his comps technically increased because of his higher ADT would it still nonetheless "look bad" for him in terms of his rating?

    In the above example would he be better off not getting rated during his lower limit session?

    Appreciate any responses.
     
  2. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Not my area of expertise, but it probably depends on the casino. Last year, I was sitting next to my Bellagio host when he brought my play history up on his computer (keep in mind that MGM is less concerned about ADT, but more concerned about your theoretical loss for the trip; they divide your loss evenly over the number of days you stay there). The screen showed him the total number of hours I played and my average bet per hand. Makes me think they are concerned about the total theo, but still certainly keep track of your hours. They know whorter play involves more volatility, but they should win the longer you play.

    I think hours is the key, especially at other properties. If you are at Caesars and play four hours at $1000 a hand, they will take notice. If you only play a few hands, even large ones, it is going to hurt your comp rating.
     
  3. kiwiboy1

    kiwiboy1 Low-Roller

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    Your thought pattern is dead on. Your ADT would go up as you suggest. Casino's basically look at average bet x hours played to determine action. Then comps are the theo of that action.

    A guy playing for 20 hours at 10 a hand is worth just as much as a guy playing 2 hours at 100 a hand. It's the exact same action.
     
  4. CaptainJack

    CaptainJack Low-Roller

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    The players club talks in terms of average bet over 4 hours because that's a formula that players would understand. Could you imagine if you asked what kind of action to get a comped room and they said "take the house edge of the game you're playing, multiply that by your average bet size, then multiply by the number of hands per hour, then mutiply by the numbers of hours played to get your daily theoretical loss, multiply by 0.3 to get the amount we'll comp on average."

    Remember, casinos discourage players from doing any kind of math.
     
  5. Goosey

    Goosey Low-Roller

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    In theory yes. But in practice, players who rely on hours of play for comps rather than a high average bet are likely disadvantaged when it comes to comps, mostly because they have little upside. On the other hand, high average betters can easily have a much higher theo just by playing a few more hours on any given trip. I don't have any statistics to back it up, but from experience, guys who consistently play a lot of hours a day generally do so because they love to play and have terrific bankroll management. Guys who have high averages generally won't limit themselves to say just 2 hours a day if they can help it. For this reason, if you go to a new property and play 2 hours at $100 a hand, you're much more likely to trigger better offers than going to a new property and playing 10 hours at $20 a hand.
     
  6. numeno

    numeno VIP Whale

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    The key part of this though is "new property". Later on when you stay there for 4 nights and only give them 8 hours of total play, your comps are not going to be as high.


    In general all the systems really care about is Theo Loss. The system may look at other things, but those other things are there to give a better understanding of theo loss. On top of that they also want to minimize risk when possible. They don't want the person who comes in for 4 nights and just plays 1 hour total over 4 days. Even if they are playing extremely high, that is a lot of risk.



    I have no personal experience with this and this is just educated guesses from posts I've read on this and other forums. Average bet is probably used more often at higher stakes. There comes a point where you aren't just writing down a bet size every 10 minutes. They are keeping track of every single bet made. I would assume in these cases they are tracking basically everything possible. They know roughly how many hands per hour the player goes though and average time at a table, avg time during a day or trip, ect...

    Average bet would tell the casino how much a player would lose if they went to the table vs playing a round of golf. I'm don't think they micro manage time like that, but I just have to assume at certain levels of play, ADT just isn't accurate enough since it is a 24 hour period. For the average person or even the $100, ADT vs Average Bet won't matter. It just seems like another metric that casinos can track and use if they want.
     
  7. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    For 99.99% of players, ADT is all that matters.

    Average bet is meaningless without a time component attached to it. If I go in and make a single $1,000 bet and leave, my average bet was $1,000. So what? I will grant that if you go in and make a single $10,000 bet and go to leave, someone will introduce themselves before you get to the door.

    Also, given the same theo, a casino should slightly favor the player with a lower average bet over a longer period of time, as numeno points out. In theory, someone who plays $100 a hand for 10 hours is much less of a risk than someone who plays $1,000 a hand for 1 hour.

    For players who do put in a reasonable amount of time, actual loss can also come into play. If your actual loss is significantly greater than your theo, this may affect your comps/offers.

    My gut feeling is that at MGM properties, you are more likely to get the benefit of this if you have a host - your host can see that your theo is consistently $X but your actual is consistently $X + 33%, and you might get a better room out of it. But MGM's corporate algo doesn't seem to pick up on it.

    But at CET, I have seen this result in my offers and comp availability through the TR web site skyrocket after a trip where I had a single HL slot session with horrible variance and dumped an entire day's bankroll in about half an hour. Because of that session, I earned fewer tier credits than normal, but my offers went way up.

    And for really large players, they can sometimes just get flat out rebates on actual losses.
     
  8. Goosey

    Goosey Low-Roller

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    Well of course. 4 hours/day is the standard. $100 a hand for $200 a hand really isn't a valuable player for the top Vegas casinos. Neither is a player who puts in $20 a hand for 10 hours.


    I don't necessarily disagree with your points and I'm not going to argue what a casino should or should not do, but in my experience, high average bets "trigger" offers or a host's attention. My point is that theory is one thing practice is usually another. A player who spends 10 hours a day gambling at a low average is highly unlikely to raise his average bet all that much and he is likely going to average well above 4 hours a day (maybe play 6 hours a day at the lowest). On the other hand, I think a player with high average bet can easily play another hour or two a day (yes there's a risk that his average will drop). Obviously, we're talking about consistency and a player is going to settle into an average over time. but we're talking about many trips here.
     
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