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Video Poker Question about progressive video poker machines

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by Tree DA, Nov 24, 2014.

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  1. Tree DA

    Tree DA High-Roller

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    I thought of this nagging question I've had when reading a recent trip report where someone hit a royal on a progressive machine. The payout was ~1031 units betting max coins.

    I don't play much video poker maybe I'm missing something...I thought the whole point of playing max coins was for the rare occasions when you hit the royal flush so you can get the disproportionately higher payout. In other words, at one coin a royal is 250, at two units it's 500 and so on so its 750 at three units, 1000 at four units. But at five units, instead 1250, it's 4000. In order to have a chance at this disproportionately large payout, you need to bet max units.

    So why would someone bet max coins when the royal flush is only 1031 instead of 4000? That's less than even the 1250 it should be if it was just proportional to all other payouts in the game. Wouldn't you be better off betting 4 coins?
     
  2. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    I'm guessing that what you saw was a quarter denomination machine. The 1-4 credit payouts were probably shown in "credits" while the max bet (progressive) was shown in actual dollars and cents.

    $1031 = 4124 quarters (credits).
     
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  3. Tree DA

    Tree DA High-Roller

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    That very well could be! I will definitely check that out next time I see one of those machines!
     
  4. mrstealth

    mrstealth High-Roller

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    TheCarve is correct, the progressive is usually referred to in dollar amounts, in your case it would be quarters for a jackpot of $1,031. Once the royal is hit, it resets (starts over) at $1,000 (4000 units), and every bet/wager made on the progressive bank increases the jackpot by a small amount.
     
  5. The Fixer

    The Fixer Tourist

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    What is a rule of thumb way to estimate how much your ev increases per dollar once progressive gets over 1k on a $.25 cent machine.
     
  6. IHeartDancers

    IHeartDancers Low-Roller

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    I've read that on a regular machine, hitting a Royal on JoB is about 1 in 80:000. How much harder is it to hit a royal on Progressive?
     
  7. wanker751

    wanker751 Dutch Rudder Enthusiast

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    I believe it is 1 in 40k not 8 for a royal on any type of poker game. As for progressive royal it the odds are the same no difference.
     
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  8. neuroboy

    neuroboy Low-Roller

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    It's not any harder to hit a royal.

    The odds are about 1 in 40,000 for JoB regardless of progressive or not. The difference with the progressive machines is that part of your coin in is added to the progressive total, making the overall expected return slightly higher than a normal machine.

    So all things being equal, I'll sit down at a progressive machine. I've hit royals 5 times this year on them, and strangely none on non-progressive machines, though the play has been equally spread among both.
     
  9. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    The probability of hitting a royal flush is 1 in 40390 in Jacks or Better
    The value of the royal flush doesn't change the probability of hitting it

    Normally the royal flush pays 800 quarters per quarter wagered at max bet when you hit it

    So the value of the royal flush to the house edge is: 800/40390 = 0.0198068 which is 1.98068%

    If you increase the value of the royal flush you still need to know its value on a per quarter basis: $1001 = 4004 quarters with 5 quarters bet, which is 4004/5 = 800.8 quarters per quarter wagered

    So if the royal flush was $1001 then its new value to the house edge would be: 800.8/40390 = 0.0198266 which is 1.98266%

    So the difference between a royal flush being worth $1000 versus $1001 is:
    1.98068-1.98266 = 0.00198%


    So as you can see its not going to be very much. Even if the royal flush reached $1200 thats:
    1200*4/5 = 960 quarters per quarter wagered
    960/40390 = 0.0237682 = 2.37682%

    So even that will only increase your payback percentage by 0.396%
     
  10. IHeartDancers

    IHeartDancers Low-Roller

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    So what you're saying is that if I have a regular JoB machine and a Progressive JoB machine sitting right next to each other, I should sit down and play the Progressive one?
     
  11. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    All thing being equal - yes, play the progressive.

    Unfortunately, it usually isn't that simple. Often, progressives will have poorer paytables than the non-progressive games. So you have to have some understanding of how big the progressive has to get to overcome the reduced paytables.

    That is, if overall expected value is the most important thing to you. (I'll admit, I've played a few progressives that had a slightly lower EV than their non-progressive counterparts just because that jackpot looked so enticing.:eek:)
     
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  12. breanna61

    breanna61 Super Moderator

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    I have a theory on the best way to increase your odds of hitting the DDB Progressive, follow me around and when I'm done playing, you start. Both progressives at Palms I was chasing in October hit right after I was done lol
     
  13. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    No, it really depends on the rest of the pay table.

    As the numbers show: the royal flush is worth only 1.9% of your payback - thats because its so rare to hit versus what it pays

    On a progressive machine the royal flush does become worth more, but it still represents a very small amount of your payback and it only really applies if you hit it.

    On the other hand, the full house and flush combined make up 17% of your payback and thats why you would want to pick a 9/6 JoB machine over an 8/5 progressive machine
     
  14. The Fixer

    The Fixer Tourist

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    So fullpay Jacks 9/6 has 99.54 payback , so a progressive of around $1250 makes it over 100percent?
     
  15. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Yes, the "break even point" (100% return) for 9/6 jacks is with a $1220 Royal. However progressive machines with 9/6 Jacks are difficult to find. Much more likely to find an 8/5 DDB with a progressive royal. But since that game only pays 96.79% with a $1000 royal, the game needs to have a $2378.75 Royal to break even.

    http://www.videopokerhelp.net/condensed-prog.htm


    To answer one of your earlier questions, a good rule of thumb to evaluate the value of a royal progressive, imo, is to consider every $500/$2000 added to the royal on a quarter/dollar machine to be worth one full house/flush paytable "notch" which is worth about 1.1%.

    Examples:
    9/5 quarter JoB with $1500 royal = 99.53%
    9/6 quarter JoB with $1000 royal = 99.54%

    8/5 quarter DDB with $2000 royal = 99.07%
    9/6 quarter DDB with $1000 royal = 98.98%

    Also, a few earlier posters have said the probability of hitting the royal remains the same whether you play either machine. This is only true if you do not change your strategy based on the royal value, which would be a mistake for significant progressives.

    For example, if you're playing 9/5 quarter JoB with a $1500 royal, it's correct to hold 3 to a royal over any high pair. This plus other adjustments increases the probability of a royal from 1 in 40,390 for standard 9/6 JoB to 1 in 33,677 in this progressive scenario.
     
  16. The Fixer

    The Fixer Tourist

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    Thanks for answers.
    Really like how you worded explanation tringlo.
     
  17. The Fixer

    The Fixer Tourist

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    Thanks for answers.
    Really like how you worded explanation tringlo.
     
  18. wanker751

    wanker751 Dutch Rudder Enthusiast

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    He always says it better...
     
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  19. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Problem is by the time I'm done, it feels like a damn novel. I've never been very concise. My TRs definitely show that as well. :eek:
     
  20. Stevie D

    Stevie D VIP Whale

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    I knew Tring would add to this thread. Brilliant.
     
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