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Table Games Progressive betting at a table game

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Old Kansas Guy, Oct 11, 2012.

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  1. Old Kansas Guy

    Old Kansas Guy Tourist

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    I am headed to Vegas in a few weeks and am looking forward to many hours of blackjack and pai gow with excellent cocktail service. I usually use a progressive betting system with a base bet that I add a set amount to after a win. After a loss, I go back to the base bet. In theory, I have steadily increasng bets on a winning steak and the same base bet on a losing steak.

    My results have been mixed. It seems like a small winning streak is often ended by drawing a pair of 8s with the resulting splits and double downs ending up with 3 or 4 mediocre hands while the dealer ends up drawing 4 cards to 21. On occasion, I have made some nice profits.

    I will generally play a $10 or $15 base bet and add $5 after each win.

    I am curious how other players approach their betting progressions.

    Thanks!
     
  2. 4dazeoff

    4dazeoff Low-Roller

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    i like to increase my presses in smaller amounts than the previous bet, especially at the craps table. for example, if i have $12 placed on the six or eight, i will go to $18 insted of directly to $24. alot of my buddies will go directly to $24 or even $30. i find that pressing in this manner preserves the bankroll a little longer. sure, it takes a little longer to get your bets up during a heater, but if it's truly a good streak, you'll get there with this strategy. i use a similar strategy playing blackjack. $15 to $25, $25 to $40, $40 to $50 etc... it's definitely a little different though because of the splits, double downs, etc. they can wipe out your winning streak pretty quick! ha ha
    Good Luck!:beer:
     
  3. DonnyC

    DonnyC VIP Whale

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    So if you are using a betting system, how do you make sure that you are getting rated at the proper rate of play?
     
  4. mjames1229

    mjames1229 VIP Whale

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    I do it exactly the same (starting at $15). I don't have patience for spending hours playing one game, so I am usually a "hit and run" Blackjack player.

    I hit for $500 wins in the last two months at Horseshoe Hammond and South Point, and $200 (after giving back a buck-and-a-half) at Monte Carlo.

    I think it is great and has me itching to play more, but in reality, I am just a couple of cold streaks away from swearing off Blackjack!
     
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  5. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    At a $15 table,I'll increase the bet by $5.but sometimes after a big split or winning double pays out,I'll back down and wait for the hammer to drop (A losing hand ie 78 vs a dealer face,hit and bust..) Next win,Then bump it up a bit and if feeling right slip a quarter under 3 reds and hope for the 20/BJ..Always great when the dealer notices that green under late upon paying out..Just trying to switch things up I guess..:blink:
    And I do not do it to piss off the dealer's routine as he is getting paid also with his side bet..but yes make him reach into his chips again on a hand..
    Just my crazy way to build up getting paid in greens..
    But I can honestly say I cannot remember winning more than 5/6 hands in a row except once..so I guess I'd rather just pick and choose.
     
  6. 4dazeoff

    4dazeoff Low-Roller

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    Donny, I really don't care about the rating. I'm just there to have a good time, drink some beers, and hopefully win a little money. I play slots too and that in it self seems to be enough to get free rooms at most places I play. I think the pit boss knows what your doing most of the time so it's a fair shake. If you play a couple hours on the table, they will see your pattern and rate accordingly. If your bouncing around from table to table for short sessions, yes, you may get overlooked. The best advice if you're concerned about your rating would be to ask the pit boss what he's rating you at. personally, i have never asked because i don't care that much. many on this board ask regularly so they know where they stand. good luck!:beer:
     
  7. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Something to Consider

    If you're using a progessive betting strategy, when you reach twice your base bet (at whatever point that occurs), instead of doubling when basic strategy says you should, perhaps you should just hit - you already have a "double bet" out there.
    Also, assuming surrender is permitted, I might very well consider surrending the 8-8 if the dealer was showing 8 or better. After all, you would only be giving up your press, which was all from earlier wins.

    I may just give a betting strategy a whirl the next time I'm there... I'll use a $10 base and increase by $5 on wins up to a max of $25. Lose and go back to $10. I'll just hit on any double-down hand once I'm up to $20...and surrender any 8-8 hand against a dealer 8 or better.
    A-A through 4-4, I'll just hit... I'll split 6-6 & 7-7 only when the dealer is showing a 3,4,5 or 6. I'll stand with my 9-9. My objective will be to protect my higher bets against the doubles & splits that so often kill 'em.
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  8. Vladimir

    Vladimir Low-Roller

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    If I am betting win progressive, which I don't do very often then I will try to 'bank' some of my winnings each time I do win to pad the session BR out a bit longer. I have been trying the following Bacc progression (never played bacc for real but want to try it next trip). It seems to work rather well when I've practiced it with play chips.

    Base bet: $50 player
    After 1st Win bet: $75 player (banks $25)
    After 2nd win bet: $100 player (banks $50)
    After 3rd win bet: $150 player (banks $50)
    After 4th win bet: $250 player (banks $50)

    If I win the 5th hand I colour up my $500 and start again.
     
  9. brklynmerckx

    brklynmerckx Tourist

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    This is a very interesting strategy. I have a progressive strategy similar to the OP's, but I had not thought about the equivalency of the double with the progressive bets. That makes some sense to me on a "managing your bankroll" basis. I always worry about not following basic strategy, though. Maybe I worry about killing my BJ mojo if I don't follow the rules.
     
  10. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Don't get me wrong...I've never actually played any sort of "betting strategy". I've almost never failed to double or split when basic strategy calls for it (only exceptions are when my bet is up due to the count & the count dramatically changes before my double or split must be done).

    It just seems to me that the point of a progressive betting strategy is to win more on winning streaks and never risk more than your base bet all of the other times.
    So, if one doubles or splits when it's early on in the higher bets, one could easily be risking more than the 'base bet'.
    So - I will try it out on the next trip. However, I may not be able to bring myself to not double my 10 or 11 against a dealer 5 or 6, no matter how much I have out there. Too set in my ways, perhaps. :beer:
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  11. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    I really don't see much point in that. The reason its a double is that the bet is so much in your favour that even with your hit card unknown that you want to maximize your payback.

    Progressive betting doesn't help or hurt the house edge, just raises the average bet. But if you start putting in system choices like not doubling pressed bets, you DO give the house more edge. And with a higher average bet thats a double whammy.

    Besides, the whole point of a progressive system is to make winning streaks non-linear and bigger in proportion to your bankroll. A good double opportunity is the best chance to do that. Yes, a multiple split/double with a high bet could be scary, but its called gambling.
     
  12. 4dazeoff

    4dazeoff Low-Roller

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    totally agree with nevyn! you never know when that "streak" is gonna end! you could win five or six more hands or loose the dd, split, etc. if that streak goes on and you stick to your normal or expected play, you can win some good $. loosing all your presses on one hand of splits, etc., hurts but yes, it's gambling! Good Luck!:beer:
     
  13. Tree DA

    Tree DA High-Roller

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    I also totally agree with the above. You must always play correct strategy regardless of your bet. My rule is that if I'm not ready to double or split then I should bet less.
     
  14. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    doubling or even splitting and doubling multiple times is the BJ player's dream with a big bet out there. if you win one or two of those that can make your entire trip. of course if you lose those, that will hurt the trip. but that's how you make a big win. not doubling because you are afraid of losing means you're playing over your head and might as well just give all your money to the dealers and leave because you have almost no chance of winning.
     
  15. Tree DA

    Tree DA High-Roller

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    Yep, doubles and splits with doubles are where you make your money. Definitely want to maximize those.
     
  16. agentq

    agentq Low-Roller

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    I agree with this 100%. I usually end a session / trip with a go big and/or go home bet. Sometimes this has proven disastrous, but when it works out... :wink2:

    I tend to play in the 1-200 range, but will, over the course of a session, through out a few $500 bets if I'm doing well. Double/split opportunities I take without hesitation.
     
  17. Big Tip

    Big Tip VIP Whale

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    I have done hours and hours of Martingale system betting. When I lose a hand, I double the original bet. Lose again, double that bet, etc. I will endure six losses in a row. Then I start over.
    I have to shop for table minimums vs maximums sometimes to make sure they allow 32 times the minimum bet as the maximum bet.
    When I lose six times in a row I have lost 63 units.
    It usually takes an hour and a half to two hours to win 63 units. Obviously I don't always get there before losing those six in a row.
    Yes, it's great when good things, like blackjacks and winning doubles, happen with the "big" bets out there.
    Progressive betting is no better or worse statistically than flat betting. But it sure is more exciting!
     
  18. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    I start with a $5 bet and increase on the wins. It's something like this, 5, 10, 15, 25, 40. As soon as I lose I go back to $5. I always double and split when it's mathematically correct. I've had some great runs over the years.

    I look at it like this, lose 10 hands in a row, lost $50. Win 10 hands in a row and it's a bingo. Am I ahead using this? Hell no, but one or two good runs can make your trip a winning one.
     
  19. blackjacknut

    blackjacknut VIP Whale

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    Progressive betting strategies mathematically do not work. Only with unlimited wealth, bets & time will progressive betting strategies work. Yes you may find yourself winning in the short run, you may sit down at a table and for 15 minutes amass a nice sum of money. Go back at some given point in the future and you will find yourself loosing with the same strategy.

    I've been playing BJ for 7 years now...multiple tournament plays and wins (yes tournament play is a different beast) and have been very successful on the regular tables. I've seen many folks use some type of progressive betting strategy (i.e. Martingale etc.) and loose big time. When I say use a progressive betting strategy I mean this is the only strategy they use. Coupling a progressive strategy with a basic or count strategy now that is a different topic.

    I always suggest to use Basic BJ strategy first. If you want to go further than Basic strategy learn how to count.....but if your going to count you better be good at it or else you will find yourself getting bounced out of the casino.

    I didn't include the mathematical analysis of why progressive betting strategies don't work but if interested I can share with you....its boring and most people don't want to take the time to understand it, thus the reason why ignorance is not excuse in my mind when deploying a progressive betting strategy and find yourself loosing your bankroll.
     
  20. shiny

    shiny Low-Roller

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    Love to learn from you. Please lost the mathematical analysis along with any betting strategy that you would recommend. Thank you very much. :nworthy:

    By the way, there is a similar thread with discussions of the same topic. Here is the link. http://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/showthread.php?t=84566

    IMHO - “Luck” always plays a major role during gambling, regardless of using progressive betting strategy or not. When I play BJ, I use the somewhat “conservative” progressive strategy and return to the base bet quickly before the losing streak kicks in.

    I bet 5-10-15-25; pause to preserve my winnings; restart the betting of 5-10-15-25; and repeat this betting pattern along the way. Usually (realistically), the losing streak will pop up. After I lose 2 hands in a row, I color up and leave the table.

    Certainly, I may lose the opportunity of winning more. In reality, I protect myself from suffering a big loss.
     
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