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Table Games pai gow streak

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by buckeyetodd, Apr 13, 2013.

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  1. buckeyetodd

    buckeyetodd Low-Roller

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    i've played a ton of pai gow. love the game. its low key, slow paced and a very social game if you are sitting at a good table.

    here is my question for you math genius type folks

    what is the odds of losing, not pushing, but actually losing 9 straight hands in pai gow. the way i figure, since there are two hands within a hand, that is more like losing 18 straight hands.

    i think a casino would be certifiably nuts for doing anything that isn't on the up and up, but this actually happened at the new hollywood casino in columbus and i just don't trust them. for their pai gow table, they use a rng to determine the first hand dealt. their machine also reads every card and if the dealer or a player is not sure how to play their hand, they just push a button and it shows what should be played in the low hand.

    9/18 in a row seems nutty to me.

    i realize its possible, i lost 13 straight playing black jack once, but they aren't even comparable, imo, as far as the odds are concerned, especially with the pushes.

    any opinions would be greatly appreciated

    todd
     
    gonna be a two royal trip!!
  2. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    1 in 19,158 chance of losing 9 consecutive hands, just a guess, havent played much pai gow

    1 in 8,000 approx odds of losing 13 hands of BJ in a row

    whoops, i shouldn't do math in my head on Ciroc Peach......while watching my Tiger bet fall to oblivion....
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2013
  3. alexanbo

    alexanbo High-Roller

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    Probability of Banker winning both hands is 29.91%

    Therefore the odds of losing 9 in a row are 29.91%^9 or 1 in 52,197 or so
     
  4. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Well, player loses all copy hands, so the probability of losing both hands in a given round is a little higher than 25%, its actually closer to 30%. (29.91%)

    http://wizardofodds.com/games/pai-gow-poker/

    For someone to do this for the next 9 rounds in a row is:

    (0.2991)^9 = 1 in 52,198.

    Rare, but still will occasionally happen.

    Losing 13 straight in blackjack is more likely by a factor of 5:
    (0.490964)^13 = 1 in 10,384.

    And I can see your concern about it not being random and also that the computer reads the cards automatically (not intending to cheat, but to keep the game moving). But nevertheless, a random game still gives the house a 2.73% edge if the player never banks. Trying to increase this significant edge by cheating is stupid, imo, when it creates the risk of possibly losing a casino license.

    All this being said, Hollywood Columbus has also briefly offered games in players' favor out of incompetence and paid dearly for it (player edge of over 30%):

    http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2013/02/20/rules-goof-gives-poker-fans-edge-over-casino.html
     
  5. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    The odds are less than 0 because no one is his right mind wouldn't bank after the dealer wins 5 or 6 or 7 or maybe 10?
     
  6. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    agree, shouldn't try to do math in my head while i'm emotional over Tiger's choking :cry:
     
  7. travelfiend

    travelfiend High-Roller

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    Okay, I am not that good with odds, but I do get the 1 in 52K odds of it happening. Is it fair to compare that to the odds of getting a Royal Flush in VP? I know it is not exactly the same but close yes? My point in the comparison is that we all see people posting about hitting Royal Flushes so I think in the scheme of thing losing 9 in a row is not as unusual so I don't think anything nefarious being done by casino.

    Another thought is did the casino beat every player at the table 9 hands in a row?? Now that would be amazing.
     
  8. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Not to get all metaphysical but the answer you seek is probably not the answer you want. That particular sequence is rare (as alex and tringlomane showed) but so is any other particular sequence. I'm not at a computer so its a pain to type out numbers but you can follow what those two guys did to work out any particular sequence of wins/losses and they'll all be in that same range.

    No because a RF is a one hand event, losing 9 straight in pgp is a 9 hand event. After you lose 1 hand, it becomes the prob that you'll lose only 8 more hands, then only 7 more hands, then only 6, etc. You build up to it and each hand is still 29.91%, you don't build up to a RF. If you wanted to bet beforehand that someone would lose the next 9 hands straight in a row than it is comparable. But when its actually happening its not? You get what I'm saying?
     
  9. RedRiverRose

    RedRiverRose Low-Roller

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    I don't know much about odds but I can say that on one occasion I lost 17 hands of Pai Gow in a row. Of the 17 hands 9 of them were Pai Gow hands. Even the pit bosses shook their heads. One said he had never seen that many losing hands in a row. Although idiotic I sat there with super glue in my butt. Later on I hit a Royal Flush with 15 dollars on the fortune bonus. That kind of made up for the losing streak. Now I am more disciplined and have learned how to get up when the hands are that bad.
     
  10. LAV

    LAV Tourist

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    Not proud to admit, but I have lost more than ten hands in a row more frequently than one would expect. This is to say that while the odds should be low, it happens more than you think.

    Vice Versa, I had one streak where I won almost every hand within a two hour window.

    I also saw someone who came in with 50 bucks and walked away with $4000 because they won a bunch of consecutive hands in a row, and they would just double up.

    I know you don't trust Hollywood's Pai Gow game, but you can rest assured that they are not doing anything illegal to stir the odds in their favor.
     
  11. vsop

    vsop Low-Roller

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    pai gow poker

    Wow....9 hands in a row....it looks like you had a bunch of hands where most of your cards were low value cards ( 2-9) and filled out with one or two cards that were a ten, J, Q or K......just an observation, but I've noticed that after a period of play, the cards dealt seem to fall into this pattern....of your 7 cards....five of the cards will be low value and the other two cards will be high value (10-K)....if I see this pattern, I won't play at that table...:nono:
     
  12. LAV

    LAV Tourist

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    So imagine this:

    Dealer dealt six hands for herself:

    hand 1: ace-king with 2 pairs behind
    hand 2: pair of queens on top and pair of kings behind
    hand 3: full-house
    hand 4: two strong pairs again, split pairs
    hand 5: pair of jacks and a straight behind
    hand 6: two pairs: 9s and kings

    So I decided to bank. Wouldn't you know, I got queen high and had to pay the dealer as well as the other players who played.

    Later on, when I noticed dealer was starting to get strong hands, quickly decided to bank so that I all the dealer's good hands would not be used up so to speak, and once again I lost to the dealer. This was recently. For this particular weekend, I managed to lose EVERY banking hand that I played. Go figure. It's amazing how when they luck is against you, nothing you do goes your way.

    While Pai Gow is a slower game than bj, bac, etc., there's a reason why it has a higher house edge than those previous two.
     
  13. alexanbo

    alexanbo High-Roller

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    Is the reason math?
     
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