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NFL Week Three Discussion

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by ClownHo, Sep 16, 2014.

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  1. ClownHo

    ClownHo High-Roller

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    Let's get the ball rolling:

    I am basing my early wagers on the odds posted this morning by Bleacher Report and Football LOCKS.

    I like the Superbowl contending Dallas Cowboys and their elite QB, Tony Romo, at St. Louis. DAL (-1.5)

    I suspected we'd see the number on Raiders games rise quickly. Given the circumstances, I'll go with the maverick, Bill Belichick. NE (-14.5)

    I'd love to be wrong about the Packers, since I'm not wagering, but I'll take the green and gold against the Lions. DET (-2)

    Denver at Seattle, I'll take the over. 48.5
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2014
  2. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    Super Bowl contending Dallas Cowboys? Elite Tony Romo? That's got to be a troll...no way you really believe that?!

    I will be in Vegas this weekend so I can get some real action in - so I have been digging into the lines hard.

    My Leans:

    ATL -6.5: They are the home team on Thursday night and it seems to me that the road teams on TNF are always at a distinct disadvantage. My initial lean was to go with TB and the points because ATL has been truly Jeykll and Hyde in their first two games. They ripped NO offensively at home but laid an egg on the road in Cincy. I do not like Tampa's offense. It SHOULD be better because we known McCown can throw the ball (look at what he did in CHI last year) and he has big WRs who should be dominating (Evans and Jackson). Martin has been hurting and is expected to play, but can he regain his rookie year magic? The Lovie Effect has taken hold...his teams stink on offense. So I lean ATL because they are at home.

    Buffalo -1: You have SD coming off a huge win and flying east for an early start. Primed for a let down, I'd say. I love Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen though. It was nice to see Antonio Gates have a resurgence Sunday too.They did not play well against ARZ offensively. Buffalo is the nice story of the year and more proof that the pre-season means jack. I am going to ride the Bills wave on this one.

    Dallas - 1: Their defense hasn't been as bad as people expected it to be thanks to Rolando McClain playing well. They'll be facing an underwhelming STL offense sans Tavon Austin. DeMarco Murray is running well, provided he holds onto the rock, and he always rips the Rams up. I am not sure if I will bet this game or not though. If it stays at -1 then maybe...

    Philadelphia -6.5: A homer pick. LeSean McCoy has yet to bust out and I think this is the week that he does so. I don't think WAS has an answer for Sproles. If the Birds can put together two halves rather than wait for the second like they have then I think they cover easily.

    Minnesota +10: They will have Peterson back and the Saints have not shown that they deserve to be a double digit fave. Mike Zimmer is a good defensive minded coach and I think they have a shot to keep it within this spread provided Cassel plays smart and turnover free.

    Houston -2.5: Road favorites against the Giants? Yeah the G-Men have looked poor (Eli has 101 picks since 2009, by the way) but do I really think a Ryan Fitzpatrick led team can go on the road and win? Yeah. I will probably play this game.

    Cincinnati -7: I have no strong feelings on this game. I think Cincy should probably be the play here but I need to look into it more.

    Baltimore -1: I am hoping this line moves up. I would be a buyer on Cleveland getting 3 or more.

    Detroit -1.5: I think I will be rolling with the Packers on this one.I did not like how DET played in Carolina...but the Panthers D is legit while GB's defense leaves a lot to be desired. Will Stafford and Megatron light up that secondary? Will Rodgers be able to answer it? I think so.

    Indy -6.5: Road favorites in a division game. Normally I would run away screaming at this scenario. But JAX is awful. And Indy is not going 0-3. I hope that this stays under 7 until I get to town!

    New England -14: I dislike laying that many points in the pro's. I may get them involved in a teaser to make me feel comfortable. I know it is the Raiders but NE has burned me on double digit faves before.

    Kansas City +4.5: Miami looked so good against NE and then completely crapped themselves in Buffalo. They are without Moreno and Tannehill is still missing receivers too much for my liking. I feel that the Chiefs, even without Charles, can win this game. Knile Davis is a good hard runner, provided that Andy Reid sticks with the run and lets Alex Smith be a game manager.

    Carolina -3: Like the Cincy game I have to dig more into this one. My initial lean is to take CAR...

    Chicago -2.5: Another road favorite....the Jets looked so good in the first half Sunday but now they are likely to be without Decker. I think the Bears trio of Cutler, Marshall and Jeffrey will be too much for the Jets.

    I got the lines from http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/?s=939
     
  3. ClownHo

    ClownHo High-Roller

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    It was established as a fact, on this very message board last season, that the Cowboys are Superbowl contenders and that Romo is an elite quarterback. If you search long enough I'm sure you can find the locked thread. While there's not much to debate regarding the facts, you won't find me betting on the Cowboys to win the NFC title.

    As for your analysis, I love it. Thanks for the effort, I look forward to reading it all season.
     
  4. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    Yeah I recall that thread lol...my best friend is a Cowboys fan and him and I go 'round and 'round over them and Tony Romo. My favorite moment was last year when they were going toe to toe with Peyton and the Broncos and got the ball...I texted him "YOU KNOW IT IS COMING...IT IS TONY TURNOVER TIME" and then he threw the pick to Trevathan. Poetry in motion!

    Thanks! Much appreciated. I loooove sports betting, particularly on the NFL despite it bein so hard to win at.
     
  5. jrinct1

    jrinct1 VIP Whale

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    My Giants stink. AVOID taking them. Take the opponent or the u/o until they prove otherwise. REALLY thought hey were gonna hammer the Cards...In regards to ROCKY BALBOA.. everyone has to have fantasies.."I like the Superbowl contending Dallas Cowboys and their elite QB, Tony Romo, ".. And FWIW I DO like ROMO buit ELITE????That stretching it SB contending- thats just LAUGHABLE.
     
  6. ClownHo

    ClownHo High-Roller

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    Laughing at facts is laughable, too, but I'll avoid turning this into a rehash of the discussion last year. Both were proven to be facts, and I like to remind everyone of those facts. If I weren't so lazy, I'd find the thread and link you to it, it's entertaining.

    As for week 3: after what I saw on Sunday night, I have to believe the Bears win in NY, but if I had to put my money on one game, the Bears game would be down my list a ways. Disappointing to learn that Tillman is out again this year. If it's not clear, I'm a fan of the Superbowl contending Chicago Bears: America's team.
     
  7. dfalk

    dfalk VIP Whale

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    I don't know jack shit about footbal but I'm on a suicide board my local bar. I lost last week picking Seattle and this week is the last week you can buy in before being eliminated for good.

    So who would you pick for a guaranteed win?
     
  8. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    I have a unique skill despite being a hardcore NFL fan at losing in week 1 or 2 of suicide pools. I was knocked out this year in week one because Chicago and Jay Cutler decided to let Buffalo work them over.

    Anyways....New England over Oakland is pretty solid.
     
  9. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    the Jets secondary is mediocre at best, how gimpy will the Bear WR be by Monday ?

    Falcons and Dallas almost look too easy......you how that usually goes......Lovie could be staring at 0-5.......few deserve it more than him
     
  10. jrinct1

    jrinct1 VIP Whale

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  11. Tahoejoe2

    Tahoejoe2 High-Roller

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    May I add to the Dallas conversation. Disclaimer: I am a big Eagle homer.
    Dallas record for the past 4 years:
    6-10
    8-8
    8-8
    8-8
    Never a winning season in 4 years.
    They will never get rid of the owner
    They have had numerous coaches
    What is left?
     
    Superbowl Baby
  12. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    Alshon and Marshall were gimpy against SF too...most of the day the reports were they were going to miss. While Jeffrey didn't impact much Marshall had himself a nice game. Marty B at TE is a good weapon too. And of course Forte.

    I think I just talked myself into taking Chicago...hopefully I won't have to use that game to try and chase Sunday's losses lol

    A .500 record since 1997 and one playoff win in that time too. They're the definition of mediocre. I enjoy watching the wallow in their own stink since my best friend and many other friends are fans. Of course they got to rub my face in the Eagles NFCCG losses :grrr:
     
  13. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    they were gimpy for SF and they were not productive at all until they changed up some of the routes they ran

    the other issue with having gimpy receivers is the safties get to play closer to the line of scrimmage and you end up with no running game

    if they seem healthier as the week goes on I will probably bet them
     
  14. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    True...and the Bears were helped by Kaepernick making awful decisions.

    But then again...Marty Morhinweg is the king of bad decisions and he's the Jets OC...
     
  15. ClownHo

    ClownHo High-Roller

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    Yep, you're missing something... the facts, and it looks like I'll have to explain. Yes, the Cowboys are Superbowl contenders. When we had a form of this conversation last season, some of us scoffed at the idea that the girls were contenders. A contrarian insisted that all teams in the NFL are Superbowl contenders if they haven't been eliminated from the playoffs. I don't remember who insisted, and I don't care, I'd rather not know. But somebody insisted that the Cowboys, Jaguars, Raiders, et al, are Superbowl contenders.

    During that general conversation it was noted that Tony Romo's QB numbers for his career (regular season) are in the elite category. I can't tell you year to year where he ranked in QB rating, pass completion percentage, touchdowns, interceptions, etc., but his regular season numbers overall were quite good when you look at them year by year. Top 5? Top 10? I don't remember. Never mind the fact he is inept in the playoffs. A contrarian insisted that the regular season numbers make him an elite quarterback.

    So there you go. Facts. Yes, there's some gray area between the "elite" and "very good" categories of quarterbacks, but there was enough evidence from the Cowboys apologist to concede Romo is elite, by one set of standards. Instead of moving on, I now join the contrarian's chorus in defending the precious Cowboys as a Superbowl contender with an elite quarterback.

    I also like to refer to Jacksonville as America's team, which they are.
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2014
  16. ClownHo

    ClownHo High-Roller

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    Many quarterbacks don't have a long run as a starting QB in this league (Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton come to mind). I have a hunch Kaepernick will be a backup, a la Matt Cassel, in a few years. If so, it's still a better career than Josh Freeman is having.
     
  17. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    One of the radio guys on Sirus, Adam Schein, refers to Jacksonville as "America's Team" too cracks me up.

    I think Kaep will be good because he's had some success and he has the arm strength to make all the throws. I think he projects into a fairly solid starter...but good point on Freeman. His fall from grace was rather swift and unexpected.

    I laughed at home Orton stiffed Dallas this past off-season - forcing his release and not having to repay bonus money - and then signed in Buffalo. Anyone who pulls one over on Jerry is good. I also liked that he handed the Eagles the division last year with his pick to Boykin.
     
  18. ritilinkid

    ritilinkid Low-Roller

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    I am glad I will not be in Vegas until week 6, hopefully the craziness will have sorted itself out. If I'd have been there week 2, I would have lost my ass.

    The Kid
     
  19. Dr Nostron

    Dr Nostron Low-Roller

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    Hawks -4.5 vs Denver

    Super Bowl rematch in Seattle after the broncos got crushed on neutral field - normally I might consider the revenge factor but hawks coming off loss and are just different team at home

    What am I missing?
     
  20. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    Same here...I chose this coming weekend so teams could work out the kinks a bit. Had I been there for the first two weeks I would have been not a happy bettor.
     
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