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NFL Week Four Discussion

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by ClownHo, Sep 23, 2014.

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  1. ClownHo

    ClownHo High-Roller

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    I finished two for five last week, so I'm aiming to reverse that. I'll worry about looking like a genius come week five.

    I'm working off of these lines: http://www.vegas.com/gaming/sportsline/football/

    I'll take DET -1-1/2
    I know the Vikings can play some defense, but I have to believe ATL -3 is the wise play.

    That's all I like so far... I'll have to reserve judgment for a few days.
     
  2. feeltheheat

    feeltheheat Low-Roller

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    my tendencies for this week:
    ravens -3 vs panthers
    colts -7 vs titans: colts won last 5 vs titans and looked good @ jax (i know it's just jax...but still)... already lost 2 and i guess (DEN&PHI) they are pretty hungry to take the division lead from the texans.
    packers -1.5 @ bears: MNF, bears got 2 huge breaks from refs. the packers winning streak starts here. watch the bears fanboys attack this pick
    falcons -3 @ vikings: you cant settle for FGs when you play NO or ATL.
    saints -3 @ cowboys
    pats -3.5 @ chiefs

    probably go with: packers, falcons, colts, saints
     
  3. Bungadin

    Bungadin Low-Roller

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    I am a casual bettor and can talk myself into some head-slapping losers like these:

    MIA -4 vs OAK in London. Hoping Tannenbaum pulls his head out.

    BAL -3 vs CAR Carolina just lost big at home to PIT and now they go to Baltimore? Eesh.

    Agree with OP the Clown ATL -3. 47 seems high so if I might take the UNDER. I don't know. Check back later.

    IND -7 Whisenhunt's tenure in AZ proved he isn't all that after taking Denny Green's team to the Super Bowl (cough) Kurt Warner (cough). Locker is hurt so no QB for TEN

    PIT -7 because TB is flat out bad (now) so I have to include the OVER at 44.5 as PIT probably scores that much at home

    NO -3 Opening day I took the Cowboys and will not make that mistake again (sorry Ryan). Seriously thinking of the OVER just for spite.

    HOU -3. Rookie phenoms ClowneyHo vs Sammy Watkins. see what I did there?

    Da Bears da Bears da Bears da Bears da Bears da Bears +1.5 at home. And the UNDER 49.5 since Rodgers can't score on the road. No fan boy here. Bears have better skits on youtube.
    [video]<iframe src="http://www.ebaumsworld.com/media/embed/38858" width="567" height="345" frameborder="0"></iframe>[/video]
     
  4. ahalifko

    ahalifko Tourist

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    My leans:

    ATL (-2.5) or (-3) @ MIN - You can get the -2.5 line if you shop around. Laying a FG is still a great bet. What has/can MIN do offensively without AP?
    PHI (+5.5) @ SF - SF looks bad going on worse. Lots of injuries and a horrible offense. I'm riding the Philly train until it stops.

    - - - Updated - - -

    My leans:

    ATL (-2.5) or (-3) @ MIN - You can get the -2.5 line if you shop around. Laying a FG is still a great bet. What has/can MIN do offensively without AP?
    PHI (+5.5) @ SF - SF looks bad going on worse. Lots of injuries and a horrible offense. I'm riding the Philly train until it stops.
     
  5. mike mc

    mike mc High-Roller

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    San Diego -12 vs Jacksonville looks like a trap game, My Pats suck so bad right now the under looks good (TB need to pass to someone besides Edelman), cant see either team scoring
     
    Just Click The Book It Button It's Easy
  6. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    does this seem like a week the books win...hmmm
     
  7. jrinct1

    jrinct1 VIP Whale

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    Thank God I don't bet ( at all ) with my Jints picks so far LOL!!!!.Be more broke than I normally am..LOL! But I LOVE the Jints Thurs night. Think it could be a high scoring affair.
     
  8. Kingbarkus

    Kingbarkus Low-Roller

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    I don't know about that. The road teams playing these Thursday night football games have been garbage. Just not enough recovery and prep time, then travel time. I'm taking the Foreskins Thursday.
     
  9. bubbakitty

    bubbakitty native Texan; born and bred.

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    the lock is orleans vs dallas...-3....i would like to go big....a tie is the worst I could see.....
     
    1st Super Bowl DT...Panthers / Browns no doubt
  10. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    I would go with Miami over Oakland...they should cover very easily.
    I would stay away from the Cowboys/Saints. Yes, really.
    I think the Eagles with points is a better pick.
    Colts should also cover easily.
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  11. Kingbarkus

    Kingbarkus Low-Roller

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    I'm with Topcard on this game. There's something not quite right with the Saints so far. The stats look fine offensively, but they are adjusting to life without Sproles and Lance Moore. I think they will get it clicking later in the year. Defensively, I don't know. Pass rush not what it should be, slow LB's, and secondary has been horrible. This is a huge revenge game for Dallas, humiliated last year in the Dome. I'm not betting this game.
     
  12. scc31

    scc31 Low-Roller

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    hit big last week with a ML parlay of chiefs over the dolphins and sd over the bills (both were underdogs with chiefs having a +195 or something like that)..

    this week i am not that confident on any of the picks out there. tonight I went with the redskins -3.5 but thats kind of shady given how unpredictable eli can be at times. not to mention the skins secondary blows and eli is going to try to light it up. im guessing it's either going to be eli 300+ yards or skins blow out.

    another one im most confident with is falcons -3.... the minn just looks horrid after blowing out a bad rams team in week 1 with a 3rd string QB. they look no where as good as they were then and with cassel out for the seaon (ouch...) and a rookie QB taking the helm in bridgewater WITHOUT an AP easing the load i think it's another good looking week for them falcons..

    if i win both these bets i'll go a little bit on the chiefs ML vs the patriots again on monday.

    games i will recommend staying away from this week: gb/chi (chi injured but gb looking medicore at best this year so far), 49ers/eagles (big trap on a must win game for 49ers - they'll look to shut down eagles and score offensively with the run keeping the tempo in their favor - but eagles can also score like crazy so it can go both ways), saints/cowboys (romo and brees.. yeah totoally unpredictable)

    games i recommend on my own outside of the two i picked above: pitts -7.5 (7 in some books) over buccs (buccs are really bad right now who can't score or play defense), jets/lions (OVER - gino looks wreckless but can move the ball, and well metatron), titans +7.5 vs colts( colts looked solid last week but thats just 1 week... given how titans played like crap two weeks straight i look for them bounce back a little and play their style insteado f the style theyve been playing), and last but not least.... jax +14 if you have that number in a book. any 2 touchdowns spread is a must in most cases and SD likes to keep games close against crap teams. even tho Rivers is at home and will try to light it up, i like jax to possibly keep it close with a running game... jax can't score though but a rookie QB might surprise a couple people!!!

    This is just my analysis from this week's media...

    Good luck to all!
     
  13. jrinct1

    jrinct1 VIP Whale

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    My picks on my Giants hasn't been right YET. Ok throw away the Jint pick and just take OVER!!
     
  14. bubbakitty

    bubbakitty native Texan; born and bred.

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    I hear what you are saying Kingbarkus but the thing that usually screws me on things like this is picking the team that should win by all rights and getting screwed by the team that "needed it more" which in my opinion is the Saints in this match-up. Plus Dallas from Louisiana / NO is not too far for a quick trip to support the visiting team so I don't think the home field thing will be as big an issue as it should be. AND Dallas still has Romo.

    Dallas has to have more tools than evident thus far to have revenge on their minds. But we shall see.
     
    1st Super Bowl DT...Panthers / Browns no doubt
  15. ahalifko

    ahalifko Tourist

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    My prediction: New Orleans gets hot, starting with this week's game vs. Dallas.
     
  16. scc31

    scc31 Low-Roller

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    yikes my pick tonight got smashed... $70 down the drain. why did i ever bet on the garbage skins after 1 good outing against a team w/o any defense. *sigh* hopefully my hawk pick recovers haha
     
  17. Kingbarkus

    Kingbarkus Low-Roller

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    Living in NOLA, I hope you're right. It has all the makings of a shoot-out. Good TV. Good Luck to everyone and let's make some money this weekend...
     
  18. scc31

    scc31 Low-Roller

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    That 54.5 has trap written all over it!
     
  19. Bungadin

    Bungadin Low-Roller

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    Its_a_trap.jpg

    So is it a trap to take the OVER or the UNDER?
     
  20. Its Only Money

    Its Only Money Low-Roller

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    I love the Eagles getting 5 this week, the 49ers could be on an unstoppable downward spiral. Indy at home as a TD+ fave over Tenn is tempting. I like the Steelers give the 7.5 too.
     
    I need one more trip to up my frequent flier level
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