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NFL Survivor Picks

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by cjohnson202, Sep 4, 2015.

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  1. cjohnson202

    cjohnson202 VIP Whale

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    Hey!

    I didn't see a topic regarding such a thing so I thought I'd start one.

    Every year I'm in a couple of survivor pools and thought we could talk about them here and bounce ideas and thoughts off each other.

    For those unaware what a survivor pool is, you basically pick a team to win each week, no spread. You can't pick the same team twice. Some people play a strategy of saving the best teams for last but personally i try to just pick the best teams from the start because the teams you save are no good to you if you're already out!

    Usually I try and stay away from road teams and divisional matchups but week one is tough this year.

    Currently I'm leaning towards Carolina over Jacksonville, with the Jets over the Browns and Seahawks over the Rams as other options.

    What are you guys looking at?
     
  2. newmans

    newmans VIP Whale

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    I'm in a Survivor pool as well.
    Like you, I want to pick a home team and stay away from division match ups.

    Week 1 looks tough this year. In other years, I've tried to keep good teams and go with middle of the road teams..........that plan never worked out very well.

    in Week 1, I like Carolina over jax or Seattle over St Louis......neither are home teams.
     
  3. Firedew

    Firedew Low-Roller

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    I'm going with a new strategy this year......worry about this week only. Past 5 years I've been out by week 6. Always trying to look ahead and save teams for later. Not this year!
    Week 1 pick - Patriots
     
  4. I7uout

    I7uout Newbie

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    Week 1 is definitely tough! I'm in a Survivor contest worth about $23k so I take this very seriously! Week 1 I like NYJ over CLEV. Cleveland has no O. NYJ D is excellent up the middle and they have added D. Revis/ Cromartie on the corners. I actually like Fitzpatrick as QB better then Geno "The Jaw" Smith.

    Other teams I'm considering are MIAMI over WASH
     
  5. Firedew

    Firedew Low-Roller

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    Like both teams also. Actually have Miami and Jets as part of a 5 team parlay.
    Good Luck! 23k is a serious Survivor pool!
     
  6. newmans

    newmans VIP Whale

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    The Pats always make me nervous. The last 2 years, when the Pats were upset, 30% of my pool went out.
     
  7. cjohnson202

    cjohnson202 VIP Whale

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    Bears knocked me out last year (Bills last play of the game FG) but it was the Patriots that did me in the year before

    I also really like the Jets, but Josh McCown scares me. Then again, he doesn't really have anyone to throw to
     
  8. newmans

    newmans VIP Whale

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    I went out in week 8 last year when Washington beat Dallas. I did go to the end 3 years ago.
     
  9. Tony Y

    Tony Y Low-Roller

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    Love Miami over the Skins. Cant see Washington scoring more than a touchdown and that might be a defensive one
     
  10. mrem3200

    mrem3200 High-Roller

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    I love the idea for this thread, I hope it stays active. I made it to week 15 or 16 in my pool last year (1st place paid around $8k) and there were only around 6 people left. I was really debating who to take and posted here looking for advice but nobody responded. I lost when the !@#$% Raiders beat the Bills.
     
  11. newmans

    newmans VIP Whale

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    Did you hedge when you got near the end? I was one of 11 the year I went to the end. Around week 13, I started to hedge by betting the money line.
     
  12. mrem3200

    mrem3200 High-Roller

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    I didn't. I am not sure what a good hedging strategy would be since if you loose your cash bet, sure you advance in the pool but there is no upside guaranteed if anyone else also advances. What exactly did you do.
     
  13. newmans

    newmans VIP Whale

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    There is no guaranteed upside. I was protecting my downside. Generally in survivor, you are picking a favourite. So. I'd make my pick in survivor and place a moneyline bet on the opponent. I never made a massive bet. Since you're betting on the underdog, the payout is pretty good. I just wanted to guarantee that I got something out since I was so far along.
     
  14. newmans

    newmans VIP Whale

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    Everyone make it through? Both my teams were safe I ended up taking Green Bay and Cinci.
     
  15. cjohnson202

    cjohnson202 VIP Whale

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    I went with the Jets, so on to week 2 I go. Saints over the Bucs is looking good early on
     
  16. Firedew

    Firedew Low-Roller

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    Yea that looks like the best option available.
     
  17. BoostedRS

    BoostedRS Low-Roller

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    Subscribing! I'm in a pool as well and survived week one. I have made it pretty far in the past as well. I went with Green Bay for Week 1.

    Early Week 2 leans for me are:
    New Orleans (not usable again from my consensus until possible Week 6 against Atlanta but still don't love it).
    Pittsburgh (not usable again until Week 9 IMO against Oakland.)

    Any opinions on the above?
     
  18. Imperial_Palace_King

    Imperial_Palace_King High-Roller

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    I like those two picks. I think Indy will bounce back this week and get a W. I also like the Dolphins.
     
  19. mrem3200

    mrem3200 High-Roller

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    I have 3 entries in my pool I went with the Pats, GB and Dallas. In my pool if you lose in the first 4 weeks you can buy back in (but you can only buy back 1 time). I am not a big fan of that, do you guys have that in your pools? The good thing about it is that the entry fee is only $20 and there are over 600 people in it so pretty much everyone that loses in those first 4 weeks buys back so it pushes the pot up. The bad thing is that the number of people still alive will hover around 600 until at least week 5. If I haven't lost after week 2 I will go with a bit of a flyer in week 3/4 because if I lose I will just buy back in.
     
  20. Imperial_Palace_King

    Imperial_Palace_King High-Roller

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    No re buys in the one I'm in.
     
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