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NFL Survivor/Pick-em League

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by BeeeJay, Nov 4, 2014.

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  1. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    So I am in a Survivor Pool which started with 453 members and is now down to 29.

    We are allowed to pick the same team more than once so there are no restrictions.

    It's been quite a season, almost got knocked out with San Diego pulling out that win against Oakland. And the past couple weeks have been awesome, boy was I cheering loud for Washington on that Monday night game, and Capernick's fumble Sunday didn't hurt either.

    I would love to get some expert thoughts on the week 10 games. Any opinions on the best few games, and any possible traps to avoid?

    Thanks!!! :beer:
     
  2. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    What are the rules... besides allowing you to pick any team twice? Are you picking multiple games per week or a single game? Is it against the spread?

    If the only rule is "pick any team more than once," this sounds like you've found the honey pot! Good luck... I hope you win it all.

    The cardinal rule of survivor is don't pick divisional rivalries games. You picked a heavy underdog in the Skins at Cowboys and it turned out well... but that's usually how those things go. The heavy underdog can easily win in those games.

    Oh, and always go with your gut no matter what advice you get from others. You made it this far on your own and you're doing well. Don't let some knucklehead (like me) screw it up for you.

    :beer:
     
  3. mike mc

    mike mc High-Roller

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    I first look at Oakland vs Denver, Jets vs Pitt, and Giants vs Seahawks .
     
    Just Click The Book It Button It's Easy
  4. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Pick against Oakland. Awful team on the road against an angry and embarrassed top flight team. Oakland has played the top teams well enough to stay in contention (NE, SD, Sea), but not enough to pull out the victory. At Denver, I anticipate a score like 31 to 16
     
  5. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    you only have to pick one straight up winner each week, so I was only cheering for Washington because 2/3 of the pool had chosen Dallas. I do get the divisional rivalries thing, but man Oakland REALLY sucks this year. Thing is in the NFL truly anything can happen. Home-team, non-divisional game has me looking at Seahawks. Also like Broncos, Ravens, Cardinals, Packers. There are a lot of good games to choose this week. I just have to hope the other 28 guys are split between some that go bad.
     
  6. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    It's at Oakland, otherwise that pick would be a no-brainer.
     
  7. dutchvelvet

    dutchvelvet VIP Whale

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    IMHO the three candidates this week would be Denver over Oakland, Baltimore to beat Tennesse, and Green Bay to beat Chicago (unless you think Rodgers will get hurt again).
    My preference would be (1) Denver, (2) Green Bay, and (3) Baltimore. Denver seems a lock. Green Bay is better than Chicago and will probably win big, but the rivalry aspect sometimes makes games go weird, Baltimore is much more talented and better coached than Tennessee, but have been inconsistent at times.
     
  8. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    the really good thing about this league is I have a partner, and he sends in the picks, so I just give him my top 3 choices and let him choose, then agree with his choice. He was involved in some other partnerships before which took the obvious games and he had put me with some 2nd choices, which is the only reason I'm still around. :evillaugh

    I would almost be willing to do a chop as my 50% interest in the 1/29 shot is currently EV = $1,438. Man if it gets down to 10 people I just wanna cash in and take $4,170 to Vegas.
     
  9. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    I can give you countless examples of when a team has really sucked and beaten a divisional rivalry that was very good at the time.

    Dallas this year may be a good example of that. Picking divisional rivalries is exactly why there's very few left in the pool to begin with.

    I agree that Oakland sucks and I agree that Denver will be looking to bounce back, but those divisional rivalry games are traps.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. bjpcyclone

    bjpcyclone High-Roller

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    I'd take Denver. Oakland with a rookie QB against Denver's defense...look out. Plus, Peyton Manning. And Denver is going to be pissed off after the NE loss.

    Even though Green Bay is much better than Chicago, the Bears are coming off a bye and have played very well on the road (except at NE). Plus its a rivalry game.

    A couple more I'd consider: Arizona (home against STL), Seahawks (home against Giants).

    My top 3 in order: Broncos, Seahawks, Cardinals.
     
  11. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    agree.

    i have denver as my #1, Baltimore as my #2. being from Chicago (and named after Bart Starr).....I can't touch that Bears-Packers game! I kinda like Arizona at home over St. Louis, but geez St. Louis has been playing good teams tough and Arizona is probably due for a let down game, so I have trouble going with that. I'm going to not outthink myself and tell my partner I'm going Denver unless he wants to overrule me. I just think its a different situation than Dallas-Washington. Denver is better and Oakland is worse.

    Still there are no guarantees in the clearly-fixed :evillaugh NFL.
     
  12. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    Last survivor pool I was in it went all the way to the Superbowl if people could last that far.
    You could only use a team once.
    When the playoffs rolled around you had to have a team that you hadn't used yet that was playing that weekend, if you didn't you were eliminated.
    It forced people to save some of the "good" teams because you would need them when the playoffs started.


    I'm betting Seattle this week. Not often I lay over a touchdown in the NFL but in this case I will.
    NYG on a short week have to go to one of the most difficult places to play with an offense that is in shambles.
    Seattle is getting some injued players back this week.
    I think think Seattle is a solid survivor pick.
    But....it is the NFL....so who knows....
     
  13. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    I like Seattle for the same reasons. I also like Baltimore hosting Tennessee.

    Definitely a crapshoot... but that's what makes it exciting!
     
  14. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    Titans shouldn't be able to harass Flacco like the Steelers did so the Ravens should be ok in this spot
     
  15. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    Mettenberger is a crapshoot. If it was Joke Locker starting, this would be an easy pick.

    But, they've had two weeks to get Mettenberger ready for this game. I still like Baltimore to win though.
     
  16. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Yep, my bad. Definitely closer because of the home team. I still think Denver wins, but the final spread will be 7-10 points. Still like that better than the Baltimore. I think Mettenberger is no threat, but the Titans have a solid D and the extra week to prepare. Still like Baltimore, just not as much as I like Denver
     
  17. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    Can't see Miami on the road beating Detroit after the bye week for Detroit even with the upset win vs SD at home.Lions may also have CJ back.
    They beat NO and Brees last home game...That's my 'no trap' game like Pitt or Seattle.
     
  18. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    yep that's my #1 and #2 exactly. Broncos then Ravens.
     
  19. Its Only Money

    Its Only Money Low-Roller

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    This sounds like a pretty nice survivor pool payout. If they are looking for more people for 2015 I would love to make my donation. I'm not in enough NFL pools yet.
     
    I need one more trip to up my frequent flier level
  20. dfalk

    dfalk VIP Whale

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    Ya that one sounds awesome. The survivor board I was on this year had like 15 people.
     
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