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NFL Super Bowl > 02.02.14 : Denver +1.5

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by JWBlue, Jan 19, 2014.

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  1. JWBlue

    JWBlue VIP Whale

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    Part of me is surprised at this line and part of me is not.

    Seattle is clearly the better team so I thought this line would open at Seattle -2.

    At the same time, bettors will want to put money on Peyton Manning, so the line opening at pk is probably a good line.

    However, the NFL these days is all about quarterback play and Petyon Manning > Russell Wilson. That is really all the analysis that is needed in terms of which side to take.

    I would play this all the way to +1 for big money. For the sake of just having money on the game I would play Denver up to -2.5.

    Denver +1.5 (-110) Las Vegas Hotel
     
  2. lotso-bear

    lotso-bear VIP Whale

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    Interesting to see the odds this way...
     
  3. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    It will flip quick...Denver money is already pouring in.

    I will get to Vegas Friday night the 31st and my initial reaction was to take Denver but obviously I need to see where the dust settles on the lines.

    I'm thinking I will take DEN up to -5.5 but not sure yet
     
  4. captainron62

    captainron62 VIP Whale

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    My initial thought was Seattle -1.5, but then I though the Manning factor would come into play and wasnt sure how much that would sway things.
     
  5. MikeOPensacola

    MikeOPensacola VIP Whale

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    I think Seattle's defense will give them a very good shot. Their D is heads and shoulders better than Denver's D. :peace: :beer:
     
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  6. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    Since I won't be in Vegas for the SB, I'm just salivating over the match-up...irresistible force vs. the immovable object. Does it get any better than this? :beer:
     
  7. JWBlue

    JWBlue VIP Whale

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    Denver -1 through -2.5 everywhere now.

    If this hits 3, I would play Seattle.
     
  8. TFK

    TFK High-Roller

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    Seattle's D is ridiculously good. If anyone can stop Manning, it's them.

    That being said, Seattle loses a lot of their magic when they leave home. They won't have the '12th man' in NJ.

    TFK
     
  9. numeno

    numeno VIP Whale

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    It will be interesting to see the weather forecast as well over the next few weeks.

    I really liked Seattle. I was kindof surprised how badly they just dealt with snaps in the 4th quarter today though.
     
  10. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    Agreed totally on SEA away from home. Just as big of a factor the Seahawks home crowd plays in their success them being on the road is equally a detriment.

    Russell Wilson...will the pressure/stage be too much for a young player?

    Can the Seahawks offense play better than they have shown? Denver's defense isn't exactly good and they're dealing with injury related depth issues.

    Can Seattle's defense neutralize the plethora of Bronco weapons?
     
  11. JWBlue

    JWBlue VIP Whale

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    Completely forgot about the weather. I am not used to needing to factor in weather for a SB. No doubt it will be cold. Not sure that will effect Manning. It will be more about wind having an effect on PM.
     
  12. craiger122003

    craiger122003 Low-Roller

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    If I recall correctly Manning played extra time against Seattle in preseason to take in the noise and defense. I am a Broncos fan and their D has been horrible until playing the Patriots. I will take the 15 year QB experience over the 2 year QB experience. I predict a safety as I always do every year.
     
  13. Joe

    Joe VIP Whale

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    My off-shore site Monday morning is Den -2.5. O/U 48, -110.
    Seattle +110, Denver -130.
     
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  14. saintpauljeff

    saintpauljeff VIP Whale

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    Looks like Vegas has a nice variety so far this morning

    LVH Denver -1.5
    MGM Denver -1
    Wynn Denver -2
    Station Denver -2.5
     
  15. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    I just hope nobody on Denver talks bad about Richard Sherman... else he's gonna be awfully mad!
     
  16. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    :evillaugh
     
  17. Readingfanman

    Readingfanman Low-Roller

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    Think I'll be taking DNV at -2.5, I'd probably play that down to -5.5 in smaller stakes. I'm surprised people are rating Seattle as highly as they are, despite their superb season, I think if they go down 7+ to the Broncos, I can't see how they fight their way back into it, their WR corp isn't strong enough.
     
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  18. MoonShotNation

    MoonShotNation Newbie

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    This line has moved from DEN +1.5 to DEN -2.5 in a hurry. It's going to take a ton of money to cross 3, but at this rate, books will have to pray for some Seattle support getting a FG. If it were to cross to +3.5 SEA, I'd immediately throw them into a 7-point teaser up to +10.5 with the under and eat the vig. I think if the Seahawks cover, they do so in a low-scoring game. If Denver covers, it will be on the back of a high-scoring breakthrough of the Seattle D. Since we never tease through 0, Denver -3 or less straight, and SEA +3.5 or higher teased with the under.

    Seahawks D is a force, and the Broncos D has been fantastic in the last 4 games, giving up 13,14,17,16 points in each game. Combined with the potential elements, I like the under as well.

    Will be in Vegas this weekend, definitely line shopping this one. Potential for the best SB in years!
     
  19. JWBlue

    JWBlue VIP Whale

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    A key to this game is going to be Denver's ability to stop the run which they were pretty good at during the regular season.

    Another reason I like Denver.
     
  20. joshrocker

    joshrocker VIP Whale

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    I was shocked at the initial line. Denver is the clear favorite in my opinion and apparently most everyone else's by how fast the line moved. I wish I was in town to take advantage of that early line. I was a fool and thought it would open around Denver -3.
     
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