1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

NFL/NCAA Underdogs of the Week

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by Squib, Oct 23, 2013.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Squib

    Squib Tourist

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2013
    Messages:
    35
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    0
    I may take a little flack for the these picks but here goes...

    STL +11

    I realize Bradford is out but its more about Sea being in a bad spot. STL is 6-0-1ATS at home vs teams with winning records. Sea is playing back to back road games so I look for them to be a little flat. I believe Kellen Clemons is starting for the Rams and is nothing to brag about but I feel the Rams do enough to keep it within 10.

    NCAA

    TEMPLE +14

    I think the line is inflated for whatever reason but TEMPLE covered vs Cin on the road 2 weeks ago and beat ARMY at home last week. Cin is better than SMU so I think TEMPLE can keep it close. SMU has not beat any opponent at home by more than 1. Unless I am missing a major injury for TEMPLE I'm a little puzzled on the large line. After looking more into this game I believe the large line is due to SMU air attack and Temple's suspect secondary. SMU gives up a lot of points per game so if it becomes a shoot out I think Temple can still cover two touchdowns.

    I will also sprinkle a little on a 2 team parlay for 100.

    Appreciate any feedback
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2013
  2. USCHawks

    USCHawks High-Roller

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2013
    Messages:
    896
    Location:
    Kennewick, WA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    How far are you going back on the St. Louis stat of being 6-0-1 against the spread at home versus teams with winning records? They've only played 3 games at home this year.
     
  3. Squib

    Squib Tourist

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2013
    Messages:
    35
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    0
    I pulled the stat off covers so I didn't back test it. I would assume it dates back to last season and the stat should read 6-0-1 ATS at home vs teams with winnng road records. These stats are not the reason I like this play but they sweeten my pick.

    Wilson also had a horrible game last year in St.Louis throwing 3 INT's...I know it's past tense but it sweetens my pick. I just think the line is a bit high even with the injuries.

    Do you like Sea?
     
  4. jingber05

    jingber05 Tourist

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    95
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    7
    go for stl +10.5 if you love giving money away lol


     
  5. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2010
    Messages:
    1,005
    Location:
    Chicago
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    85
    I'm not saying bet or don't bet STL but if you're basing your wager upon some stat, SF went into StL and blew them out and SF had a winning record at the tme.

    edit- SF did not have a winning record at the time they were 1-2
     
  6. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2010
    Messages:
    1,005
    Location:
    Chicago
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    85
    Good luck with the Temple bet. I like digging into the under the radar games too.
     
  7. Squib

    Squib Tourist

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2013
    Messages:
    35
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    0
    My play isn't based on this stat. It only supports my pick. I look for teams in bad spots vs teams in good spots. Last week was the colts and Hou in college that were in good spots. This week is STL and TEMP.

    Wish me luck as I will probably need it with these two plays.
     
  8. USCHawks

    USCHawks High-Roller

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2013
    Messages:
    896
    Location:
    Kennewick, WA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    Seattle also lost to the Cardinals last year against John Skelton and Kevin Kolb in Week 1 so if you're taking last year into account Seattle probably shouldn't have covered last week when they were down in Arizona.

    In all seriousness though, Seattle will most likely win this game, it's just a matter of if they'll cover. Okung and Giacomini still being out worries me as Russell has been under a lot of pressure this season already. I doubt Percy will be back for the game even though he did start practicing yesterday. I have a feeling that we're going to be running the ball a lot against a Rams defense that is 30th in rushing yards allowed. On the offensive side, the Rams are 29th in rushing yards going against a Seattle defense that is very, very stingy against the run. Combine that with an opportunistic secondary that is second in the league in interceptions going against a backup QB in Kellen Clemens and I just don't see the Rams being able to keep it close.

    If I had to bet the game I would probably go with Seattle, final score of 27-13.

    Also, for the Rams fans out there...what the hell is going on with Tavon Austin? I figured I'd hear more from him this year.
     
  9. Barney

    Barney Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2004
    Messages:
    268
    Location:
    SW PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    20
    I think part of the problem was solved last week when Bradford went down. St Louis needs someone in there that can get the ball to Tavon.

    But what do I know, I'm just a WVU homer.
     
  10. les303

    les303 Tourist

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2012
    Messages:
    9
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    20
    Tavon Austin had an 75 yard TD catch from Bradford called back last week because of a tripping call on LT Jake Long.. I agree they need to get him the ball... but he has also had some drops this year as well.
     
  11. Barney

    Barney Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2004
    Messages:
    268
    Location:
    SW PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    20
    Yeah, I seen that. Didn't he also have a KO or punt return for a TD called back earlier this year? Fun player to watch.

    I've thought a little about the Seattle/St Louis game and I think I would have to side with Seattle minus the points. They are in a dog fight right now for home field advantage so I don't see them letting up if they get on top.

    FYI, my NFL picks have sucked this year.
     
  12. USCHawks

    USCHawks High-Roller

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2013
    Messages:
    896
    Location:
    Kennewick, WA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    They did win...barely. Obviously they were nowhere near covering.

    I must be a soothsayer because our line was AWFUL tonight. Our O-Line got used and Russell got abused because of it.

    Wrong and wrong. Seattle couldn't run the ball and STL pounded the ball against the Seahawks.

    This was the only thing that I was really right about as Irvin and Sherman both had interceptions.

    I hope nobody listened to me!
     
  13. Squib

    Squib Tourist

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2013
    Messages:
    35
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    0
    A couple of winners including a parlay. Sea looked flatter than a pancake as I predicted. 1 yard gained in the 1st quarter! Wow! If Clemons didn't throw the 2 INT's and the missed FG, STL had a shot at the upset.

    Sea is still an awesome team that will go deep in the playoffs but they were just in a bad spot this week. B2B road games and 4th road game in 5.

    Will be back next week with a couple of smelly plays.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.