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NFL Conference Championship Game Thoughts

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by UKFanatic, Jan 13, 2014.

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  1. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Will be in Vegas next Sunday for the two conference championship games. Anybody have any thoughts they want to share regarding wagering on those games? At this point in the season, the lines so good, its hard to find an edge. So any other thoughts are appreciated
     
  2. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Low-Roller

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    Frisco and New England in Super bowl
     
  3. kingslender

    kingslender Low-Roller

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    I'm going to be in Vegas as well - taking SF on the moneyline (currently +160) and the over on the NE/DEN game. I feel like that is going to be a close game at the end, but I don't have enough confidence in either team to pick a winner.

    Betting the line (+3.5) on SF seems stupid, IMO. If you're going to drop $100 on them with the points, might as well let it roll on the moneyline for a 60% bump in return.
     
  4. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    Being that the SF line is over 3 I would, and am, going to play the side. I like that it is over that key number 3.

    I would also sprinkle a little on the ML as well because I believe they will win outright.

    SF's offense has come around since Crabtree came back. He gives Kaepernick that down the field guy on the outside. That has also opened up Vernon Davis (notorious craps player, by the way) to do his work between the numbers.

    Gore is very savvy RB who knows how to dig out the tough yards.

    With that being said you cannot discount the Seahawks D obviously. They have the back end to neutralize Crabtree and Davis. They have a SAM LB (Irvin) who can run with Davis. They have a very strong DL who can apply pressure and plug gaps to hold Gore at bay.

    Plus Kaepernick has not really fared well against the Hawks. ( http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KaepCo00/splits// )

    I do not like what Seattle's offense has been doing lately. Yes Wilson is really good at moving the pocket around. But when he is forced to set up camp in the pocket can he be effective? The Niners have a D who can force that. Their receivers are OK but nothing will scare you about any of their guys.

    Lynch is a beast but the Niners have two of the best LBs in the game with Willis and Bowman.

    SEA D vs SF O = push
    SEA O vs SF D = edge to SF

    I think the Niners score enough to win the ballgame but that it will be close. I love that it is at 3.5.

    As for DEN and NE? I have learned to never count out Brady and Belichick. They will pull whomever they need to off the bench to do whatever it takes to win. Blount was the bell cow yesterday. He may not touch the ball five times next game as Belichick may have Brady throw it 45 times.

    They are the kings at adapting to what they have to work with and neutralizing opponents best threats (see Aqib Talib on Jimmy Graham weeks back when NO went into Foxborough).

    I will be playing the points here too...I like NE to give DEN a real run because of the Broncos lapses in coverage in the secondary (lost a CB to a torn ACL today too).
     
  5. RiddickBull

    RiddickBull VIP Whale

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    I like SF at +3.5. It will be a close physical game.

    I like NE +5. Anytime NE is plus points, I take them. I think it will be a 3 or 4 point game. If you look at their last 3 playoff games against each other (Manning vs Brady), they have been close games.
     
  6. chess

    chess VIP Whale

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    I just don't see SEA losing at home....plus their fans make it damn loud....

    I like DEN in the fav just because of Peyton.....
     
  7. lotso-bear

    lotso-bear VIP Whale

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    'hawks baby!

    Seahawks v Broncos in the SB and 'hawks win!
     
  8. nfcwestbest

    nfcwestbest Tourist

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    Hawks squeak out a close one on Hauschka's 4 field goals. Final Hawks 19 46ers 16

    Superbowl Hawks beat Pats.
     
  9. bubbakitty

    bubbakitty native Texan; born and bred.

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    I would parlay 20 ML on the visitors....Pat's and 49er's......

    Earlier on Pat's and the Over is a solid bet also....should be 2 Great Games......
     
    1st Super Bowl DT...Panthers / Browns no doubt
    Spur of momento trip
  10. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    I think Carolina took a page outta Seattle's playbook last week and it backfired. They started the game pushing, shoving, jawing after every play. Seattle did this against SF in the meeting earlier this year in Seattle. It got in the Niners heads bad... The refs started thrown' some flags and it cost Carolina. It still got into the Niners heads a bit though as they responded in kind. I think you'll see the same crap in Seattle. I worry that refs don't want to be the feature story in any playoff games, and Seattle will test to see how physical they'll be allowed to play... ah hell... so will SF. I predict this'll be a Championship game to remember! The coaches don't care for one another and neither do the players or fans. Speaking of the fans... the 12th man in Seattle matters, it just does!

    Seattle has a fast, physical defense with three-(3) of their DB's on the ProBowl. Niners have all their receivers on the field now, but can they get open for Kap? Niners have three-(3) linebackers on the ProBowl squad and Aldon Smith is completely healthy and wrecking havoc again. Seattle's offense doesn't appear to be as potent as it was earlier in the season, but Marshawn Lynch is still a beast to get on the ground!

    So I'm takin' the Niners... but only cause I'm partial to all things Bay Area and I HATE the Seahawks from the days when they were in the Raiders division of the AFC. I'll put $50 on it so I have some skin in the game, but this game could be all over the place!

    In the AFC, Mr. Brady goes on a business trip to Colorado this weekend and comes home a winner. The Patriots are firing on all cylinders right now and damn if I know how? A running back who was the last guy to make the squad, LeGarrett Blount, is running like a Hall of Famer... fast and powerful and Brady's making his receivers look like All Pros. New England's defense has been hit HARD by injuries, but the back-ups have played admirably to this point. Peyton "Omaha" Manning will be at his best I'm sure and the Denver home crowd can be a loud one too. I'm taking Brady and the points because of better coaching and preparation... John Fox is no Bill Belicheck.
     
  11. chitownjohn

    chitownjohn High-Roller

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    SF/SEA total is 39. Both teams have great D, but they also have a lot of O along with great kickers. Special teams and/or D touchdowns put this game OVER.

    NE/DEN total is 55. This should be a shootout with both teams going up and down the field, I like the OVER here as well.

    I think SEA and DEN win, but you can't go wrong with any of these teams in the SB.
     
  12. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    I'm in 2 streak contests and in both of them I took the Niners.
    One of my streaks is at 10, the other is at 9
    am I "due to lose" :wink2:
     
  13. mike mc

    mike mc High-Roller

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    Cant see SF winning up there, they went to below zero in GB, 2 weeks ago flew back to Calif, then off to Carolina, back home then up to Seattle which they have had zero luck in last few meetings, All the while Seattle has been home the entire playoffs
    As far as the Pats never count them out, Peyton usually pees his pants against Bill and the Boys and Its the First time since I think 7-8 years, My Pats have been underdogs in a playoff game (will be enough motivation) . Pats/ Seattle in New York 2/2/2014
     
    Just Click The Book It Button It's Easy
  14. kingslender

    kingslender Low-Roller

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    San Fran has been playing BEASTLY and I think they are due in Seattle. I'll be in Vegas on Sunday and I'm spreading my bets around as folllows:

    SF Moneyline
    NE Moneyline
    DEN/SE Over 55
     
  15. arrgy

    arrgy Tourist

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    I disagree on the Over...I think the Mad Wizard in New England will do all that he can to keep Manning off the field, which will limit the points.
     
  16. chitownjohn

    chitownjohn High-Roller

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    I like your angle, but it doesn't work if Manning gets the lead and puts points on the board early. There's no lock here, good luck.
     
  17. jasonargo

    jasonargo High-Roller

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    I don't have any confidence in the over/under for either game. The NFC could easily end up 24-21 or 21-17. God only knows what'll happen with Brady & Manning.

    I'm thinking of combining two 2-team parlays using the moneyline on the NFC & the Pats in the AFC. Either M/L or + points with the Pats. As long as the Pats half wins, it would be a guaranteed winner.

    Using sportsplays.com current numbers Pats + points w/ Sea is +165, w/ SF it's +340. Profit either +65 or +240.

    Pats M/L it's +545 w/ SF and +286 w/ Sea. Profit either +186 or +445.

    Thoughts?

    Also, anyone in town is welcome to join some of us at Four Queens at Chicago Brewing for the late game.

    -
     
  18. klevegas

    klevegas Low-Roller

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    Hi

    I'll be in Vegas this weekend also...I say Seattle plus the over on the Denver/New England. Good luck!!!
     
  19. Gdicke13

    Gdicke13 Low-Roller

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    Another one in Vegas for championship weekend! Could be 2 all time games! Great point about sf travels, can't see them winning 3 in a row on the road. Seattle is a brutal place to play. I'm taking Seattle minus the points in a parlay w the pats moneyline. I'm from Boston so nuff said about why I'm picking NE. Don't be surprised if the pats do the opposite of last weekend and throw a ton. Everybody thinks run run w Blount, but w Denver's top cb is and they are vulnarable to the pass Look at the charger game. When sd started picking up the pace and throwing is when they started scoring. I think it goes under 55 to.
     
  20. Tahoejoe2

    Tahoejoe2 High-Roller

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    Seattle has no offense. They are one dimensional with Lynch. Niners ML
     
    Superbowl Baby
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