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NCAA Tournament wagering > 03.22.13 : (First half) James Madison + Any # vs. Indiana

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by JWBlue, Mar 21, 2013.

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  1. JWBlue

    JWBlue VIP Whale

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    2013 NCAA Tournament Record 1-0

    First half wager.

    I am certain the value in this line will be with JMU. I would take whatever # is available.

    The Dukes won their opening game with ease. In the second half when they got back their best player back from suspension they dominated.

    I thought this before I heard him say this.

    I can't imagine ever a 16 seed having this much talent.

    Nation is the 4th best player on this team.

    JMU should keep the score close the first half and have a shot to win the game.
     
  2. bubbamsu

    bubbamsu Low-Roller

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    James Madison has played 1 game against anyone of importance (UCLA) and lost by 30. They rest of their schedule was against no one really.

    RPI:

    Indy- 7
    JMU- 174

    SOS:

    Indy- 10
    JMU- 257

    YEs, this sets up to be a barn burner and should be real close, until the first TV timeout. :licklips:

    Depending on the spread, I can see putting some $$ on it, but this game will be a blow out.
     
  3. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    I don’t know what the first half number is, so I can’t comment on how “good” of a bet that would be. But I do know that Indiana hasn’t had issues with athletic teams this year. The teams that have given them trouble and/or beaten them have been big and physical.

    JMU’s backcourt is big. And that might give the Hoosiers some problems. But I don’t see anyone from JMU being able to slow down Zeller, Watford and Oladipo. It just means that Sheehey will get more minutes than usual and Oladipo will get some more time at the two spot.

    The only common opponent the two have played was North Dakota St. IU won that game by 26…JMU lost by 22.

    Unless the Hoosiers completely overlook this team (and they’ve done it before – Illinois, Minnesota), this one won’t be close.
     
    Number 50!
  4. JWBlue

    JWBlue VIP Whale

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    This is not the same team as from the beginning of the season.

    If someone looked at the scouting report before any matchup in an NCAA Tournament game between a #2 and #15 seed, I am sure it appeared the #15 seed had less a chance of winning than JMU does for this game. Everyone knows a #15 seed has beaten a #2. JMU should not be a #16 seed.

    The talent is there for JMU to win this game.

    JMU opens at +21.5. First half line will likely be +12.5.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2013
  5. bubbamsu

    bubbamsu Low-Roller

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    You can rate JMU at any seed number you want, but they DO NOT have comparable talent to IU and it is not even close. As a Spartan, I have seen, unfortunately, how good/deep IU is and there is a reason why they have been rated top 5 all year.

    If and when a #16 beats #1, it won't be a talent based outcome, it'll be a miracle like situation to make it happen. Think MIracle on Ice or Hoosiers(no pun) situation.

    You say they have talent and are lighting up opponents. I say there is a HUGE difference between the level of competition Big 10 and CAA.

    As a fellow gambler, I say good luck, but I think the casino is saying thanks for the donation.
     
  6. Rush

    Rush High-Roller

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    1st half was +13


    Indy won 43-22
     
  7. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    What? You mean the talent in the CAA isn't a decent analog for the talent on the team that won the best conference in the country? I'm shocked. :poke:

    Sorry JWBlue, I should be a bigger man than that. I'm just tired of the lack of respect my boys - and the B1G in general - have been getting. Oh well, at least after the past few days, I know I won't have to hear about the Big Least being the toughest conference in the land.

    To be fair, JWBlue was absolutely correct about JMU. They were incredibly athletic and there is some real talent there. As good of a 16 seed as there's been in a while.
     
    Number 50!
  8. Marky147

    Marky147 High-Roller

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    How do you guys rate Gonzaga's chances this year?

    I've had the equivalent of about $50 on Gonzaga @ +3300, this was about a month ago when one of the sportsbooks was way out of line and most had them priced between+800 and +1400

    I've been told it's pretty open and any one of several teams have a shot, so I just wondered if they have a realistic chance?
     
    Double digits!
  9. bubbamsu

    bubbamsu Low-Roller

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    For that price, I would take Gonzaga.

    Can they win it-YES they can. I think they have the talent to win it all, but I think there are better teams in the tournament. They will have a hard time with Ohio St, Louisville, MSU, or Duke to reach the championship game. But, that is why they play the games, anyone could win.
     
  10. Iu25

    Iu25 High-Roller

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    Nation is THE best player on that team and hes a frosh. Cant believe the spread was 21.5 and it hit 21 at end of game! Crazy, might have been a diff spread in Vegas, but I saw 21.5 on yahoo!! That said, there is no way in heck I would have put money on JMU, ive watched the Hoosiers all year and it just wasnt going to be a close game at any point!

    Now if you want to think about the next game, Temple at +11.5 isnt a bad bet. I think Hoosiers will will by 10-12 but it could be closer!
     
  11. JWBlue

    JWBlue VIP Whale

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    Typical of my betting career on college basketball. I bet on the first half, lose, and they cover the game.


    With my evaluation I guess I got caught up in JMU's talent compared to the CAA. I thought they could hang. AJ Davis did not show up.
    I probably overrated guard Devon Moore and Goins. Those two are a force in the CAA. I just thought they wouldn't drop off as much as they did against a better conference.

    Even though I said they have a chance of winning, I was really saying they could cover the first half. They did cover the game.

    If Andre Nation improves his outside shot he will be drafted. He had the best game statistically of anyone. Charles Cooke might have an outside shot as well.

    I don't think my analysis of JMU was that off. My knowledge of Indiana might have been. If they play well, they will not be beaten.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2013
  12. Marky147

    Marky147 High-Roller

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    Thanks Bubba, it's been great value for $50 so far anyway and that was kinda how I figured things were.

    Looking forward to watching the game tonight and hopefully they don't get turned over :)
     
    Double digits!
  13. Iu25

    Iu25 High-Roller

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    Funny thing about Nation and Cook....they were both 0* players coming out of high school according to Rivals. Either one of them could play in a big conference like B1G or ACC. Amazes me how teams miss out on players like that!
     
  14. bubbamsu

    bubbamsu Low-Roller

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    Too bad Gonzaga did not show up for the game, but at the price you got them at, it was a good bet in my opinion.
     
  15. Marky147

    Marky147 High-Roller

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    The price was good, but as we say you can't eat value :)


    It was a very strange game, they were down by 13 and then got it back to 5 at the half.

    2nd half they came out strong, turned it around and got themselves a nice cushion.

    At this point they were trading at -1000 so I laid them off on the exchanges for a few hundred to give myself some profit in the unlikely event they lost...

    Was a pretty incredible turnaround and I can't even remember how many 3s on the spin the other side hit!!
     
    Double digits!
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