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NCAA Football Lock

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by POPO2012, Sep 10, 2012.

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  1. POPO2012

    POPO2012 Low-Roller

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    :beer::beer:Heading into the Bellagio for some NCAA football this Saturday and was looking for some advice on a solid lock on a game from fellow football fans. Now that the odds are posted and everyone has started developing opinions what do you guys think ? Anything looking like a dead lock ?:vomit::vomit:Appreciate any and all input ! Thnx :beer::beer: Triple dog dared my buddy on his all time largest bet for a single game and he has accepted the challenge.:poke::poke:
     
  2. BackInVegas

    BackInVegas VIP Whale

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    I have no mojo this year

    If I pick a team, I guarantee that it won't cover or it will lose.

    Idaho at LSU I would take LSU and give the 42

    James Madison at West Virginia if you can find that bet I would consider betting WVU and giving some points

    Ohio at Marshall if the spread is Ohio -6.5 I would bet it.

    There the kiss of death.

    And I will try one more

    Texas -whatever over Miss State. I hope Texas loses every game. If my picking Texas helps in that endeavor I am all for it. Maybe I should actually bet the game because it would be a win win for me. If they cover I am happy, if they lose I am happy.
     
  3. Kagedawg

    Kagedawg Tourist

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    I second Ohio at -6.5.

    The following are also interesting to me:
    VT -11 over Pitt
    Florida +2.5 over Tennessee
    USC -10 over Stanford

    Of course there is the well-tested theory that one should bet the EXACT OPPOSITE of what I think...haha!
     
  4. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    I went 2 and 2 this weekend so far. If you'd like me to flip that coin for you, I could.
     
  5. POPO2012

    POPO2012 Low-Roller

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    We loved Ohio to beat Penn State outright week one due to all the turmoil and lack of safety in the shower area of the locker room at Penn St. I'm checking that
    West Virginia game spread
     
  6. POPO2012

    POPO2012 Low-Roller

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    Love the Florida game but I just cant trust Virginia Tech, Pitt looked horrible last week.
     
  7. vegas_or_bust

    vegas_or_bust High-Roller

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    I would stay away from the Florida game. Tennessee is much improved this year, and have an NFL QB in Tyler Bray. Playing in Rockytop at night with an inexperienced QB = a recipe for disaster IMHO.
     
  8. POPO2012

    POPO2012 Low-Roller

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    I've seen one website that's actually showing that game as a pick and that alone scares me
     
  9. Kagedawg

    Kagedawg Tourist

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    I understand the unease regarding VT. They are one of my teams to generally never trust (the others being Texas A&M, Clemson, and Ga. Tech). However, Pitt just looks SOOO bad this year.

    It seems like Tennessee is always "much improved this year", talks a big game before Florida, but never delivers. As a Buckeye fan, I want to see Florida go 0-12 every year, but I just do not trust Tennessee against Florida. Of course if I knew these things with certainty, I would quit my day job!:Þ
     
  10. POPO2012

    POPO2012 Low-Roller

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    Kagedawg we are from Ohio and also Buckeye fans as well as beat up Browns fans. Taking a hard look at California because I HAVE to throw money at that game it will be manditory. Hate Florida but love Urban !!!!!
     
  11. Kagedawg

    Kagedawg Tourist

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    Because I am such a Buckeyes fan, I generally stay away from bets on them, especially with large lines like the Cal game. The only time I bet on them is in big games to "hedge my misery". For example, last year during the OSU - Michigan game, I was actually in Vegas. I threw $300 down on the Michigan money line at minus whatever it was (Mich. was favored). While not at all happy when Ohio State lost, at least I cashed in, which tempered the disappointment of actually losing the game.

    Browns were typical this past Sunday; although I did have them at +9.5 which was nice. Looks like another long year with Weeden at QB. At least he was able to find his way out from under the flag pre-game!
     
  12. zamboni

    zamboni VIP Whale

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    Weeden IMO didn't look half as bad as Vick. Dude is supposed to be the new messiah according to some, I STILL don't see it.
     
    Super Bowl 2017!!!!
    Super Bowl 2017!!!
  13. Hugh Jass

    Hugh Jass Tourist

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    Ok, I love stuff like this, so I've GOT to chime in.

    I agree Pitt looks horrible. And while Va Tech hasn't looked great, they do have some talent and a coach who WILL run it up if given the chance. Decreases the chances of the dreaded back-door cover when you're dealing with a big number.

    There are plenty of other teams that look bad this year. How 'bout Middle Tenn St - lost to McNeese st and is now favored on the road. Of course they're playing Memphis who also looks terrible. Then there's some of the bigger schools: Houston, Colorado. Going against these kind of teams can be profitable.

    But, on to my pick for the week. Western Kentucky getting 7 from Kentucky.

    Good luck to all.
    :drunk:
     
  14. POPO2012

    POPO2012 Low-Roller

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    Hey Hugh just to make sure I'm understanding who you like, Western Kentucky is who you are going with correct ???
     
  15. Hugh Jass

    Hugh Jass Tourist

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    Yes, I like Western Kentucky. I'll throw in another directional school for you too: take East Carolina plus 7.5

    And, as always, if these picks don't win - you'll get my picks for the rest of the season FOR FREE!!!!!!!!!!!! :thumbsup:
     
  16. POPO2012

    POPO2012 Low-Roller

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    Copy that Hugh thanks for the input hopefully we wont need the "Free" picks. Watching that Ohio line and it's looking pretty tasty. I think there are some nice parlays in here with some of these game.
     
  17. Someone

    Someone High-Roller

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    LSU is too dangerous to bet at that spread.....you never know when LSU might go into their 3.34 yards per carry and a gaggle of future felons offense.....or worse they might get up a few touchdowns and try and "work on the passing game" which means bounce balls 5 yards in front of the receivers, throw balls over their heads and out of bounds, or just throw to no one....meaning they win by 30 instead of 52 like any other team would

    LSU is a defensive team that has to play offense because that is part of the game you play to get the ball back on defense :poke:

    the Texas Ole Miss beat is probably a winner at that point spread, but the isue with that game is everyone gets excited to play Texas and Mack Brown never runs up the score......but that is not a lot of points and Texas still has a lot of kinks to work out on offense before the regular season starts so they will keep trying to score

    if you want to "gamble" you might put $100 on the money line for UNLV.....leach is a horrible coach and WSU is a horrible team (they should have lost to EWU as well), but it is hard to see what UNLV really is right now, but that game is either going to be a win for UNLV or it is going to be leach running up the score like he loves to do to finally get that "genius of the cult of mike" theme going again.....I have that game down as a loss of WSU, but the real tricky part is who will the WSU quarterback be and how good is Halliday VS Tuel id Halliday plays and will Halliday stay in the pocket and throw the 1-5 yard pass like the mike leach offense demands or will he run if given the option for more yards like the mike leach offense hates...and the game is on the road which means that leach will probably make some of his standard stupid coaching mistakes and special teams will be especially bad for WSU.....if only UNLV had a home crowd :rolleyes2: ....also being a Friday showcase game these are the types of games when leach really likes to take a dump as a sideline coach because he wants to build up the cult of mike following so he breaks out all the stupid tricks like lining up on 4th down after wasting a time out and trying to draw the other team off sides and then taking a 5 yard penalty and punting (has that draw the other team off sides thing ever worked no it has not, but keep going to the well) and usually that is followed by some other stupid penalty of a big special teams play by the other team

    again that game would be a money line bet for UNLV if I was betting it

    TAMU VS SMU another money line pic on SMU......if June Jones and Garret Gilbert can get the offense rolling there is no way that TAMU will cover that spread and JJ makes adjustments at the half KS not so much and TAMU is on about a 100 game streak of choking in the second half so if that game is even close at the half SMU will take it.......bet the goal post being ripped out as well on that parlay....just like WSU/UNLV......if it is a TAMU win it will be something like 3 points especially if you bet the odds for TAMU......which is a loss for the gambler........so go ahead and make the money and bet the money line or lose the $100 like you would have with the odds anyway

    VT Pitt looks like a really good bet on Pitt as the other poster said VT will run the score up for style points and Pitt is terrible....VT has better players and a better coach and no qualms about beating a team by 35 when it could have been by 32 instead.....kicker needs practice too right :evillaugh

    Stanford USC looks like a good bet on USC.....I can't stand USC or their coach, but Stanford is doing like they always do and falling off dramatically after their 2-3 good seasons per decade and a half....OL is gone, their good coach was gone after last year (but OL was still around as a player coach) and now Stanford is in the free fall back to reality....BUT USC has a really bad habit of choking a game a year away at least for the last several years and usually to Stanford or some team that is worse......but I have that choke coming against Utah or UCLA this year....not Stanford....so this game with that low of points looks like a good bet

    ECU VS USM should be a win for USM and covering the points.....Ruffin McNeil is a fine man, but I think he might be in over his head.....this game specifically will probably tell his fortune at ECU if he can get a win maybe this is his year.....if they take a beat down like in years past ECU will probably be changing coaches at the end of this year....USM should be a much better team, but their big loss to a not that great Nowledge team with a horrible coach that then lost to UCLA that sucks makes USM questionable......but if they are going to show they are the class of the CUSA this ECU game will be the game to do it

    BYU Utah should be a lock for BYU and the points.....BYU is the better team, BYU owes them a beat down (several beat downs actually), the point spread being so small means there is little chance it will not be covered with a BYU win and Utah is not that good....but it is one of those dreaded rivalry games.....but this should be the year that BYU makes up for past years in this series

    UNC Louisville I think Louisville is one of the safer bets this week (not a lot of great bests this week overall)....UNC is horrible with so many issues and again with a point spread that small any Louisville win just about means you have the points covered as well....I can't see UNC winning this one at all and if they are not going to win they are not going to keep it within 3

    TCU Kansas should be another pretty safe bet on TCU even with the 21 point...TCU still needs to get things warmed up for the year, they run a high point offense and KU and fat charlie front butt are just flat horrible.....I would see TCU easily putting +21 on Rice (and I always cheer for Rice) and Rice beat KU.....so KU just flat sucks and their coach is a fat idiot that no one will have an issue hanging 50 on especially TCU......should not even be close and TCU should not be letting off the gas because it is only their second game and this is the Big 12 Division 1 football not intermurals

    Toledo Bowling Green.....a game most would probably not look at (to bet or on TV haha) but Toledo has lost many close games against pretty good teams the last few years and they are a bit better than advertised these last few seasons.....BGU did not lay it on Idaho like a really good team would and Toledo kept it close to an AU team that I thought was not that good, but that destroyed OkState....with Toledo only -3.5 again if they win (they should) I don't think it will be by less than 3.5 points......so Toledo should win and it should be by a touchdown or more.....to me that is usually a pretty good bet if I am thinking that

    SJSU CSU.....if that line moves to 7 points or less I would be betting on SJSU all the way CSU is terrible (although they should be decent) and SJSU is just a "learning how to win" away from being pretty good....SJSU should have beaten Stanford and could not close it out....the got their feel good back pounding UC Davis while CSU has the opposite....they pounded a pathetic CU team and then got pounded by D1-AA North Dakota State while their "big win" CU got beaten by Saccy state (how pathetic is that).....so SJSU should be feeling it this week, but I am not sure they are feeling it to the tune of 11 points...being a late game the line could move as the day goes on....if it moves to 7 or less then SJSU is a good bet

    Utah State Wisconsin....this is another game that is the reason they call it gambling.....go with Utah State and the money line on this one...the points are just too far apart to make it a good bet with the odds, but if you are gambling then $100 to win $425 is a decent bet.....this is the season for Wisconsin to be the overrated Big 10 team (or one of them) and Utah State is putting it together this year finally with the win over Utah really meaning something for them as far as a statement for their team (even though Utah is not great it is one of those rivalry monkeys)...UDub has already played terrible at home against northern no one state U. and then losing to a team called the beavers.....pathetic especially 10-7...if you can only put up 21 points against D1-AA at home and then 7 on something called beavers.....there is not a chance in hell you can cover a spread of 13 to 13.5......this is one of those games where you can probably "cover" your bets as well.....bet the money line on State and the bet the odds on State as well......if you lose the money line you will probably still win the odds bet and there is a good chance you might collect both with a State win so break even (less the juice) or up $525.....sweet....just make sure to cover the juice with drink tickets

    Meatchicken State VS the Golden Domers....MSU should thump ND by more than 6 points I think MSU is a good bet here.....this is the time of the year when ND starts "feeling it".....and then losing it.....parlay this bet with ND moving up 3 places in the polls after the loss as well because so many other teams ahead of them "lost so much worse"

    Ball State Indiana.....I think Indiana is way over rated right now....I see little chance the game is won by less than a field goal and it is a "toss up" for who actually wins (I think Ball state will) which makes it a decent money line bet even though it only pays $125 for $100.....but with two teams with a lot of ? about who they are why not go for the extra $25 when the line is so close......you could always try the opposite "cover" on this one and bet the money line on Ball state and the odds on IU then you break even less the juice or you win $25.....but really is is gambling so just go with Ball State on the money line

    Houston UCLA.....this is a very late game (the last of the evening)....UH won last year, but UH has some issues this year.....but I don't think UH is as bad as they look and I surely don't think UCLA is as good as they look (this is their time of the year to start to take a dump like ND)......if you are having a good day and you are up pretty nicely for the day this would be a great game to take some of your winnings and go for the gold with a straight money line bet on UH with $100 paying $750....UH has shown their offense is up and running again against LaTech, now can they have a decent defense and more importantly can UCLA keep up with the UH scoring if UH gets rolling because I don't think the UCLA defense has it in them and I don't think the UCLA offense has it in them if UH scores.....so it is up to the Uh offense are they going to keep rolling or not....I think they will and I think they will roll UCLA and either way I don't think UCLA covers 17 points.....I would wait this game out....see where your bank roll is and see what the teams that these two have played do throughout the day and then if you are up for the day, have some "fun money" and some of the other teams that UH and UCLA have played give you a better feel for this game.....go for the money line and the big score....it is gambling for a reason

    FAU and Georgia.....I would take FAU and the points....Georgia is only averaging 43 points per game over the last two games and Buffalo sucks and Missouri has no concept of defense.....so even though FAU is terrible it will be a huge stretch for UGA to win by 42 to 42.5 because that would mean they would have to basically equal their season average in scoring so far + hold FAU to nothing and UGA just does not roll like that....and a large number of points against MU were in garbage time after MU had tasted the taste of letting defeat creep up on them...FAU will probably take a beating, but UGA just does not roll up the points usually to cover a 42/42.5 point spread they are just not run or coached like that......like LSU and other SEC teams...give work to another running back or some second teamers instead of style pointing it

    Arkansas State VS Nowledge.....this is a bet to really get your day started off right if you really like to gamble......$100 on the money line for stAte to pay $1840 and then if you want you can still "cover" that with $100 on N and the points...stAte played Oregon decent on the road and Oregon is a much better team than Nowledge is anyday of the week....stAte lost to UO by 23 on the road so thinking that big red will beat them by more is pretty much a stretch to me and I think stAte might pull the upset.....big red still has huge team issues as seen by their starting D tackle leaving the team yesterday (the 12th) and a backup receiver (not a great one) was lost to a knee injury in practice......so Bo has a lot of work to do and in your 4th season having a lot of work to do means you are open to losing to teams like stAte at home and there is no way you cover the points when UO did not even cover that point spread against stAte with stAte breaking in a new coach and the first game of the season on the road against #5 UO that is legit VS NU that is not......so stAte with the points and why not gamble and go with stAte on the money line as well and at worst lose the juice or at best pick up $1740

    KSU and north Texas state....I am not a north Texas state fan for personal reasons so I would probably not bet this personally unless I was "rolling" from the rest of the day and wanted to "gamble", but I think that KSU will kill the 28 point spread.....LSU is a better team than KSU IMO and LSU only beat the not so mean green by 27, but that is that LSU 3.34 yards and a crowd of future felons offense and the "air it out" without a completion when up that I mentioned before....and it was the first game of the year and KSU is actually much better coached (although I think sun visor lester miles is a better coach than some give him credit for).....so I look for KSU to cover the 28-28.5 points and keep rolling....north Texas state is still a mentally weak team as well and they struggled against a bad Texas Southern D1-AA team a lot worse than the score from last week looks and TSU made mistakes and north Texas had a lot of garbage time points because they have so many things to still work on (like being decent to good)......while KSU flat put an ass whipping on thug U and I know that thug U sucks and sucks bad and is way over rated, but they just flat got beaten down by 39 so who in their right mind thinks that UM is worse than north Texas or that KSU will let off the gas and not donkey stomp north Texas especially with the regular season about to start next week against OU...go KSU here

    ULM Auburn.....Auburn is bad.....really bad....is ULM that good.....well it was their first game of the season.....Little Rock is an Arkansas home game 100% for sure period so there was no "neutral site" BS it was as bad as losing in Fayetteville period and Arkansas already had a tune up game (that was not that great).....sure Arkansas had major issues with their overall team mentality, but they have superior athletes at every position and when faced with adversity ULM did not fold they stepped up and took the win.....Auburn is just mentally weak, Chizic has shown at two places now he is not a true head coach and AU is falling apart.....I would take the ULM money line here for $100 paying $600/$625 and if I was really worried I would probably take ULM and the points because I don't think that AU covers 16.5 points because I don't think they win this one....ULM has stepped up to Alabama before and I just don't think they are going to let down this game and get blown out and I don't think that AU is the team to blow them out even if they do let down.....I would go money line ULM and leave it at that.....but you have an option to "cover" that bet as well with pretty good odds by going with ULM and the points as well

    those are the games I have an opinion on and like the odds or the money lines the others I would not consider for various reasons and some of them have no odds yet
     
  18. Gator5220

    Gator5220 Low-Roller

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    Don't be a hater. Your home state boy Urban will have the b-eyes back on top in no time.

    Sharing some football love here. Memories for Gators and Buckeyes, warm memories.
     

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  19. Hugh Jass

    Hugh Jass Tourist

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    Okay, Popo, you got 2 7-point dogs that won outright. I hope you loaded up on them.

    When you get back, let us know how you did and what you thought of the Bellagio sports book. :beer:
     
  20. Someone

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    I would have been 7-11 that is pretty bad, but I would have won one of the small money line bets to help a small bit

    the worst part is the games I thought were locks like VT and TCU were some of the worst picks

    week three is a tough week to pick because teams are still letting everyone know who they are
     
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