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NBA bet Dec 9, 2014

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by PayTriple, Dec 9, 2014.

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  1. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    Just made this bet, taking OKC at -600 money line for $1,200 to collect $1,400.
    It occurred to me that this is approximately similar odds and payout as covering 30 numbers in roulette with $40 each.
    My question to VMB members:
    Which is the better bet, the basketball bet or the roulette play?
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2014
  2. pphold

    pphold pp Park Place Degenerate

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    that is a HIGH ML. The Thunder is a 10 point favorate so you are laying 6 to get one.
    OKC should win at home and since you took the ML. It looks like a safe bet just if it is wrong you need 6 wins to cover One lost.


    Good luck PT.
     
  3. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    Pphold, so if you had $1,200, which bet would you make?
     
  4. pphold

    pphold pp Park Place Degenerate

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    I like the Spurs to beat the Jazz. but that just me.

    They are only a -9 point fav. but you ML so -500.

    LOL
     
  5. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    But is that better than the "equivalent" roulette bet with the same odds?
     
  6. pphold

    pphold pp Park Place Degenerate

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    sports does not have the same probability as say dice or cards. These are professional people playing a sport so NO. The odds are real odds on the roulette wheel.

    Sports Odds and change is based on a Power index and points from that to see who will win and by how much.

    The truth on sports is it should be 50/50 as any team can win or lose on any given day.


    I will say it is more fun to watch the game for the 2.5 to 3 hours than a quick spin of the roulette wheel. The results of the roulette is quicker.
     
  7. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    My point of this post is that I made the OKC bet, and feel much better about it than the roulette bet. I will be shocked if OKC loses, but I would not be shocked if I lost the roulette bet.

    What should the true odds be? I don't know.
     
  8. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    By the way, you did not answer my original question.
     
  9. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    OKC is 4-5 SU at home and MIL is 5-7 SU on the road. The ATS figures and trends seem to favor the Bucks. If I were thinking about that bet, I'd feel like I was overpaying.

    Because of that, I think I'd take the roulette bet.

    But, I don't dislike the bet. Home court advantage is bigger than most people understand in the NBA.

    My bookie doesn't allow ml parlays... I went out looking for them the other day when I saw your other bet from Sunday. I was pretty depressed about that.

    Good luck tonight! I'll be pulling for OKC now.
     
  10. pphold

    pphold pp Park Place Degenerate

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    Its a bad bet if you lose and good bet if you win.




    Odds wise I like the Roulette odds better. back to my first statement

    Its a good bet if you win and a bad bet if you lose.
     
  11. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    Thanks undathesea!
    The problem with the historical data is it does not take into account the fact that Durant and Westbrook are both finally healthy and playing together only in the last 3 or 4 games. So the trends will underestimate OKC's chances. I am a huge believer in the intangible nature of home court advantage...look at the highlights from the Clippers game last night!
     
  12. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    I'd take the roulette play.

    NBA teams are just so fickle.
     
  13. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    Actually... with Durant back in the lineup... I think I take back everything I wrote. Hadn't realized he was back. I'm focused much more on football right now.

    It's a different team with Durant.
     
  14. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    Yep... I just noticed that. I like it whole lot better once I saw that. Good luck!
     
  15. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    Yeah, I put in the roulette play as an unbiased comparator, since we know exactly the odds.

    If NBA teams are so fickle, then why not have a strategy where you always take the money line on the underdogs to get long odds? Just thinking out loud.
     
  16. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    Let's hope I made a good bet, lol!
     
  17. NCAAHoops

    NCAAHoops Low-Roller

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    I like the big round ball bet vs the little roundball bet. The reason is i will take sports over a table game any day if the week however i will play both and in fact do play both.

    I like your bet. would you change your answer if you were to take roulette and bet 600 on 2 numbers? I would still take the NBA bet maybe a different underdog and not against.OKC Though
     
  18. Bommen

    Bommen High-Roller

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    You will do a lot better long term using this strategy then betting on the favorits when betting the moneyline. Its pretty hard to beat sports betting period but betting favorites makes it impossible.
     
  19. Bommen

    Bommen High-Roller

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    You will do a lot better long term using this strategy then betting on the favorits when betting the moneyline. Its pretty hard to beat sports betting period but betting favorites makes it impossible.
     
  20. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    End of 1st quarter: Bucks 31, Thunder 26.
    Got them right where we want them!
     
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