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NASCAR Betting: Who Ya Got?

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by thecarve, Mar 3, 2014.

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  1. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    It seems we have a fair number of folks on the board who will be getting their good ol' boy on next weekend. So...where are ya'll putting your money? (Yes, the "ya'll" was for effect, I've never used that word in my life...sorry:eek:)

    The Hendrick drivers have been damn strong. And Harvick (driving Hendrick equipment, if not officially a Hendrick team member) was absolutely dominant in Phoenix.

    Of course, neither Daytona nor Phoenix have much to do with a fast, high-banked 1.5 mile track. So who? Edwards? Kenseth? The Busch brothers?

    I think it's safe to say that Earnhardt will be overpriced. Even when he wasn't terribly competitive, he was always priced pretty high due to his popularity. Now that he seems to be an early front runner, I'm sure it will be pretty ridiculous (even if it is somewhat warranted now). Johnson, while perhaps more deserving of his premium, will probably be priced to a point where all the fun - if not value - will be taken out of betting on him. Where's the fun in 9/5 odds in a field of 43, after all? I'm guessing the "momentum" bet will probably price Harvick out of my wheelhouse as well.

    I'm thinking Kahne or Gordon might be decent values. Neither have made much noise, but both have been good so far (Kahne had some ridiculously bad luck at Daytona with that penalty) and they both have the equipment to win. I'm also hoping Hamlin might have some very long odds. He wasn't impressive in Phoenix, and Vegas isn't exactly his best track. But his Daytona performance showed his back must be getting healthy. And that guy can pull some big time performances out of his ass on occasion. The Penske guys might not be a terrible bet either, if the odds are long enough.

    Obviously, it's too early to commit. Not a single practice lap has been turned. And, I haven't even seen any odds yet. But I was just hoping to get a conversation started. So whaddaya think?
     
  2. Viva Las Vegas

    Viva Las Vegas Ramblin' Gamblin' Man

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    To me, the best betting opportunity in NASCAR is to bet on a two driver proposition, betting that one driver will finish ahead of another driver. It's much easier to cash a ticket betting that one driver will beat another vs. betting that one driver will beat 42 others, and you pay less vig in the process.

    I did make $500 on Junior several years ago at the Stardust sportsbook betting on him to beat, IIRC Jeff Gordon. Junior was behind with a few laps remaining, before giving him a love tap which sent Gordon into the wall and me to the betting window to collect a half hour later.

    Would love to see the prop bets and will give my selections at that time (hope someone can link or post).
     
  3. suthrnoutlw

    suthrnoutlw Tourist

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    Kyle Busch

    Hometrack
     
  4. Shades

    Shades Tourist

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    I've never bet Nascar but since I'm going to be at the race this weekend maybe I will.

    I'm a Tony "Smoke" Stewart fan but when it comes to betting I bet with my head over my heart. I could see Kyle Busch winning this one since it's his home track.

    :cool:
     
  5. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    Vegas Insider has some odds up. I have no idea where they get their NASCAR odds, though, so it might be irrelevant. (Of course all odds are irrelevant for me until I arrive Saturday and can make my bets.)

    http://www.vegasinsider.com/auto-racing/odds/futures/

    If I can get Gordon anywhere near that 15-1, I’m all over that. And Jr. at 10-1 doesn’t look too bad. Though I’m still not 100% convinced of his ability to win non-restrictor plate races, so I’d like to get +1200 or +1500 for him. I was wrong about Kahne, though. I don’t think 8-1 represents a great value. I’d like to see at least 12-1 for him.

    Johnson looks like the deal of the century at 5-1. Those are the longest odds I’ve seen for him in years. Usually he goes off at 5-2 or 3-1. I’ve even seen him at 1-1 before.
     
  6. Dobber2320

    Dobber2320 Tourist

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    Matt Kenseth is going to have a great run this weekend - he kills mile and a half tracks - no way in hell that you get 5/1 on Jimmie.

    Jimmie is not even a great bet here as this is one of the tracks that he has never won on.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2014
  7. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    Jimmie has won four times at LVMS. Several years ago he was a sure thing there - I won two or three years in a row betting on him. I think he has only won once since they reconfigured the track, though. In 2010, he passed Gordon late in the race to win (costing me money).

    I agree that Kenseth should be a tough in Vegas.

    Jamie McMurray might be worth a few bucks if he stays at 75-1. Stranger things have happened.
     
  8. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    Ditto!!!!! BUT... minus the home-track "thing", I say that EVERY race!!!! :wave:
     
  9. LuckyDog77

    LuckyDog77 Tourist

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    I'd take small positions on Stenhouse Jr and Paul Menard at 100/1. I'd put my real money on Johnson.
     
  10. hillwood24

    hillwood24 High-Roller

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    I'd put my money on Kyle Busch. You can never count him out. I'd also take a minority stake in Jeff Gordon with those odds. He's doing well this year by starting out the season with 2 top-5's.
     
  11. acehigh

    acehigh Tourist

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    Nascar

    I like Matt Kenseth this week. Of course the Busch Brothers are something to raise an eyebrow at, with home field advantage, but it's Matt's Birthday Monday so after the race he can go celebrate the win and his BD.
     
  12. dfalk

    dfalk VIP Whale

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    Rusty Wallace 4 Lif3
     
  13. Camp Rusty

    Camp Rusty Low-Roller

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    Boogity Boogity

    Keselowski
    Newman
    Edwards

    I made a killing the first year on the over/under on yellow flags. I don't think the odssmakers realized that the cars didn't race in the rain. I think the O/U on yellows was 4 1/2 and I saw the radar had a string of showers headed for the track. I think there were three or four for wrecks and three or four for rain.

    Prop bets are easier to figure out for me.

    Too bad they don' pay like horse races instead of just for first.
     
  14. Camp Rusty

    Camp Rusty Low-Roller

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    Damn.....No Way To Bet

    :cry:

    There I was with my #2 as a winning pick and no one I knew was going to Vegas this weekend. I always bet three drivers at $100/each.....net on this one would have been $800.00 !

    D'OH !
     
  15. craiger122003

    craiger122003 Low-Roller

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    I have layed Logano all year if only I could bet the winner of the first 50 laps :vomit:
     
  16. Camp Rusty

    Camp Rusty Low-Roller

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    Joey Is Always A Good Bet

    I like Joey......seems to always be in the mix.

    The surprise to me this year is Junior, first and two seconds, they are clickin' in the pits and in the garage, as well as on the track. The odds will suck on him but it might start to be a good bet. Team consistency is huge. I usually don't look at anything under 8:1, no bang for the buck, for me anyway.

    Looking forward to Bristol, actually went a couple years ago, amazing venue. During the race it's so loud your brain feels like it's being hit repeatedly with a baseball bat. I like the 18 for Bristol this week, also 99, and I would do Junior as my third. I think the odds will be low on all three though.

    Good luck !
     
  17. craiger122003

    craiger122003 Low-Roller

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    I will roll with Logano again for 10. Might do a couple longshots again.
     
  18. craiger122003

    craiger122003 Low-Roller

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    Well I will hit Logano again and a little on Keselowski.
     
  19. Camp Rusty

    Camp Rusty Low-Roller

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    Sooooooo Busy This Week......

    Stoopid good weather in Seattle, haven't seen a thing about qualifying in Fontana. Been working in the garden since Thursday.

    Would have lost my rear end at Bristol.

    History and hunches to me say 24 and 48........and 14 this weekend.
     
  20. craiger122003

    craiger122003 Low-Roller

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    Burned me again all my picks wrecked or lost laps from tires. Bullshit
    I like to get an easy win at some point to pay for the rest of my bullahit bets. ugghhhh
     
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