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Video Poker Mistakes vs Pay Table

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by fenway68, Oct 9, 2016.

  1. fenway68

    fenway68 High-Roller

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    Has this been discussed before...

    Lots of us profess our love for VP, many of us for bartop VP, many of don't like the poor paytables we face playing there, yet many of us, play there anyway.

    Hope the following makes sense:

    1. pretend I play sober at the bar, and get loaded on the casino floor
    2. bartop 7/5 DDB (ugh!)
    3. on the casino floor 8/5 (maybe 9/5)
    4. Assuming I can play perfect sober but make mistakes when I am drinking...

    How many mistakes do I need to make playing 9/5 to match that of the poorer paytables... 8/5, and 8/5 to 7/5 and compare 9/5 all the way to 7/5??? (remember in this experiment I am playing sober with the "bad" tables and drinking on the good ones)

    now of course, I will be likely be playing equally as loaded at the bar or the floor depending on "tickets/lights" or CW service so this point is only theoretical for the math geek inside of me.
     
  2. vetsen

    vetsen Tourist

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    Rather than how many mistakes can you make, the better question is what kind of mistakes can you make.

    If you're so drunk that you hold only one K from KK, you can only do that about once an hour if you play otherwise perfectly.

    If you're just a little buzzed and you forget whether you're supposed to hold JT98 or 88, that's not going to cost you anywhere close to 1%.
     
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  3. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Like vetsen mentioned, it is very dependent on the actual errors made. Small errors aren't a big deal, but complete misholdings can be. And also how often are you actually making these mistakes matter. When I peek over at other "regulars" playing sober in St. Louis, I would say their errors cost them maybe 1% overall, the worse players may cost themselves closer to 2%. But most have a reasonable idea how to play.

    Here are the return penalties if following errors are ALWAYS made:

    Common errors among casual players:

    no 3 to a straight flush: 0.224%
    no 2 pair w/face cards, hold 1 pair only: 0.426%
    All 2 high cards beats 4 to inside straight with 2 or more high cards: 0.0668%
    3 to a Royal beats all high pairs and 2 pair: 0.1282%
    3 to a Royal beats 2 pair and pair of face cards: 0.0469%
    3 to a Royal beats a pair of face cards: 0.0379%

    Possible errors more likely to occur with drunk/distracted play:
    2 high cards beat low pair (since you miss the pair): 3.6732%
    1 or 2 high cards beat low pair (since you miss the pair): 6.933%
    Don't hold anything because you forget you're in the draw phase (including dealt winners): 67.8205%
    Don't hold anything because you forget you're in the draw phase (excluding dealt winners automatically pointed out to you by the machine): 25.9184%

    For errors above that you think will occur "some of the time", multiply by the percentage you think it might happen. For example, forgetting you're on the draw for non-winners once every 100 hands would cost you 25.9184% x 1% = 0.2592%.

    _________________________________________________________________________

    Here are some other careless errors drunk players may do, or players playing on machines with "sticky buttons", failing to hold one card:

    But these are calculated differently because the program I used for above doesn't work for these.

    Return reduction per error within every 400 hands played. So this means the return reduction per hourly occurrence for a 400 hand/hr player, or per 2 hour occurrence for a 200 hand/hr player, or per 4 hour occurrence for a 100 hand/hr player, etc.

    Trips, hold only two of them:
    Aces: 2.885%
    2s-4s: 1.780%
    5s-Ts: 1.239%

    Two pair, hold only 3 of 4 cards:
    Holding a high pair: 0.110%
    Not holding a high pair: 0.288%

    One pair, only holding one card:
    Aces: 0.403%
    Kings-Jacks: 0.281%
    2s-4s: 0.166%
    5s-Ts: 0.129%

    So if you mishold KK twice in "one hour" (of 400 hands of play), or once in one hour at 200 hands/hr, just holding one King instead, that will cost you 2 x 0.281% = 0.562% in return.

    _______________________________________________________________________

    Note in comparison:
    8/5 pays back 1.08% less than 9/5
    7/5 pays back 2.16% less than 9/5

    Also, the number of errors also seem to generally increase when one plays faster as well. But at least when you're drunk, you tend to slow down. I'm a decent drunk player, I assume I cost myself less than one paytable notch overall due to mistakes, probably only a couple of tenths of a percent, but hard to say unless I could actually record my play in the casino. But I do know that I quite rarely make a major mistake and catch it after it's too late. Once a trip at most, more often none.

    If you come up with some other strategy mistakes that you would be curious about their cost, let me know and I can look into them.
     
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  4. fenway68

    fenway68 High-Roller

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    Tring,

    As always, sir, u are the VP guru. These are the numbers I was curious about.

    Sounds like the type of mistakes I make when drinking don't "hurt" me as much as I was worried. I think I do pretty well when drinking and do know when to slow my play (and drinking) down.

    I have to admit, I do hit the draw when I thought I was ready for a deal every once in a while. That's usually my "wake up" to sober up and slow down.
     
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  5. TXactuarial

    TXactuarial Low-Roller

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    I would follow my never-before-seen "House-Edge Adjustment Formula" :

    AdjustedHE = 0.02 + (X^2)/1000

    Where x = number of drinks consumed in the past 2 hours.

    For example, if you are considering going for your 5th drink, consider the benefit of the free beverage in combination with playing for the next 20 minutes with a 0.02 + 25/1000 = 4.5% house edge. 4.5% house edge for 20 minutes will be 200 hands at $1.25/hand = $250 * 0.045 = $11.25

    Unfortunately the formula fails after 31 drinks in 2 hours.
     
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  6. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    My exponent is definitely less than 2 there, but that's probably something I shouldn't brag about. :whistle:

    The formula may fail at 31 drinks in 2 hours, but so will your body. :drunk:
     
  7. TXactuarial

    TXactuarial Low-Roller

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    Hey, that is something worth bragging about! I was thinking of including a Ballmer Peak around 4 drinks, but that formula would have gotten ugly.