1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

March Madness Strategy

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by travloh, Jan 28, 2016.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. travloh

    travloh Tourist

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2011
    Messages:
    46
    Location:
    Minneapolis
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    4
    My brothers and I are ramping up to our 4th annual March Madness Betting, Eating and Drinking Extravaganza. After Super Bowl we go into full on College basketball mode.

    We watch as many games as possible, watch the conference tournaments, and compile all kinds of data for each team when the field of 64 is announced. We have a spreadsheet with about a dozen categories for each team, and each category is given a certain amount of weight in the final ranking of each team.

    The funny thing is, when we get all the data in and let the computer do its thing, we can almost predict the line of prospective game. My point is, that the brains in Vegas are the best at handicapping, and beating Vegas, over the long haul, is ridiculously tough. Whatever research we may be doing, they are doing more, and have more resources to draw from.

    2 years ago we all scored BIG on Mercer over Duke. Our numbers told us that Mercer had a very decent shot of knocking off Duke, and that's just what happened. We all bet big and scored. Since then we have found ourselves chasing the big money line score. Looking for an underdog to shock the world and and pay a +700.

    As you can imagine, we've not had another big hit. But, we have found ourselves chasing it. Obviously every year there are underdogs who win, but it is getting more obvious to us that trying to sniff out these games may not be the best use of our time and money.

    We've been told to stick to points bets, and use our data to pick the favorites or underdogs who will cover.

    Another thing that is getting obvious is to stay away from games where our prospective team is playing. Betting on the game just cuz you're a fan is stupid. It's tough to place a bet against your team. You want to cheer for them.

    So I guess I'd like to hear some others' strategies. Do you have a plan for the whole weekend that you stick to? Do you bet as many games as you can, or do you go big on just a few games?

    Thanks in advance, and hey, it's less than 50 days until the Madness begins!
     
    Christmas in Vegas
  2. bwatson23

    bwatson23 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2013
    Messages:
    304
    Location:
    Michigan
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    Co-worker and I have something similar to this as well. We run a bracket-ology each week in the regular season and seed teams accordingly. Big time TV games are always going to attract a lot of attention, often times the lesser-known teams and games are profitable options for us.

    It's not about getting all your money into the center of the table, we have a decent volume going for us from time to time, but it's just fine to take a night off as well. Sticking to a system of regulated bets and not dumping a huge portion of the bankroll on a single game is important as well.

    The past couple years we've won the office pool running away because like you, we have a system where teams are weighted and ranked, almost like an RPI that is currently used in college basketball. With there being no ELITE teams in college hoops this year, it's actually made for some profitable weeks.
     
  3. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,081
    Location:
    Houston by way of Philadelphia
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    12
    I haven't yet been there for MM but I will this year and I am mulling over what type of strategy I will go with.

    I will seek out some bigger dogs to take ML shots on. But I usually stick to the sides bets and once the conference championships roll around is when I get serious about watching teams. I rely a lot on the eye test and what I see and feel from a team...so I read as much as I can.

    I won't be downloading a movie to watch on the flight out because I will be devouring as much info as i can.

    Another thing I like to do with other sports is the hail mary parlay's...8-10 teamers hoping for huge hits. I will be doing a couple of those a day too
     
  4. Franken Dean

    Franken Dean Newbie

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2014
    Messages:
    323
    Location:
    Omaha, Ne area
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    14
    I break every 1st round game down, but only bet 6 games max on the first Thurs, and then up to 6 on Friday. I stagger my game plays so that i can press my winnings. For instance if I wager $55 on a early game and then my next play is $105. If I lose, same starting bet of $55. My max loss day one is $330. My goal is to win $750.

    I spend a lot of time on breaking these games down on Monday, and Tuesday before the dance starts, and it has helped me. I throw out out the trends, but will look at the recent conference tourney play.

    The eyeball test is not a good thing to use on the first 2 rounds as these match-ups are typically not similar to their normal league play.

    It's all about the match-up. If the playing style is similar to their league play, then top seeds do well. The tough part is determining what style these smaller league teams plays.

    My key team stats are road shooting % and 3 pt defense. I also like to see a good free throw %. I then look at each teams squad and look for the experience edge, and hope for a good back court. A big bonus is a first round loser the previous year with a few key guys back. These teams usually are a good revenge play in the 1st round.



    When I break down the games, I do not look at the spreads. After I breakdown a game and see a winner, I will then take a look at the spread and bet money line or the spread based on value.

    Many spend too much time looking at spreads and finding a soft line. Trust me Vegas is usually dialed in. Find your match-ups problems. Find a team that gets over 50% of their scoring from their front court players, and bet against them. This tourney is all about the guards and if your big guys do not shoot threes, and the guards are not scorers, you bet the other way. (sorry, Ralph Sampson fans)

    After round 2, I will then look at depth, and again the match-up. Round i 3 is usually when the best teams are comfortable and hard to bet against them on the money line. If you are not getting a nice point spread of 5+, then I lean on the top seed.

    Last year it was tough finding any good dogs to play, the year before it seemed I was betting all dogs. Trust you matchup breakdowns, and if you have no time to then its best to take the team with the better guard play and is also the better seed.

    That's enough my damn 2 typing fingers are tired.


    Peace out.
     
  5. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2012
    Messages:
    705
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    These are just my two cents but I haven't had a losing CBB season in the last three years. If I could only replicate in the NBA, NFL and every other sport :grrr:

    1. Numbers, number, numbers. Jeff Sagarin, Ken Pomeroy, NumberFire, TeamRankings, SportsInsights. FG%, Points For, Points Against, Pace Numbers Both Raw and Adjusted. Ken Pom for example for $19.99 a year you can join and see his FanMatch numbers which give predicted score based on his personal algorithm than he has not posted anywhere online but is a pretty good model and is said to be used by a lot of bookmakers in their research and linemaking. My cousin and I have put a lot of time into developing a solid CBB model over the past three years and the time has paid off with what I believe is a very good model. We have put in a lot of hours basically always tweaking it late night and between work for each of us. We run it in a Google Sheet so we can both adjust and work on and with it at any time. The algorithm incorporates not only Ken Pom's FanMatch model but also adjusts that for tempo, uses full season Sagarin rating, recent sugaring ratings. It's very in depth but has been very successful Against the Spread and has been a modest money maker on the ML with some good dog bets. So find some numbers you trust whether they are someone else or you create your own because while there will always be variance because it is March Madness with a bunch of 17-22 year olds playing basketball the numbers go along way in predictive analysis.


    2. Pick a unit size relative to your bankroll and stick with it. Just arbitrarily betting different amounts on games will never end well. Variance alone is hard enough to over come don't beat yourself further by chasing and using poor money management.

    3. This is more about my betting style. The model we have created triggers or identifies games that are 5 points of the spread and 10 points of the spread. So if Team A is -5 over Team B in the book, one trigger will highlight the game if the model says Team A will win by 10 points or 5 points off the spread and another will highlight it another color if the model says Team A will win by 15 or 10 points off the spread. So I try to find these games and play them as the numbers seem to truly favor a team. On the flip side for dogs that the model likes to cover and give a fair chance to win outright something in the 40% range with good ML odds I will put a certain number of units on the spread and half that number of units on the ML for the dogs. For example, Team B is +7 and the model projects 78-76 for Team A and says Team B has a 41% chance to win outright with ML of +280. I will put 2 units on Team B +7 and 1 unit on Team B ML +280. This way as long as they cover you profit and if they win you hit a decent pay day. Not to mention at 41% chance to win the ML should be closer statistically to +145 so you've "found" value.

    I could go on forever about this type of thing so I'll leave those three things as my basics to the madness of CBB betting.

    Attached is a picture of Iowa @ Maryland in the algorithm. Sorry for the size, I don't know why it is so small.

    Screen Shot 2016-01-28 at 7.45.25 PM.jpg
     
  6. wrobinson32

    wrobinson32 Tourist

    Joined:
    May 9, 2012
    Messages:
    91
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    18
    I just enjoy the feeling of watching game after game roll into more games. Last year I just staggered parlays across the day for constant action, but unfortunately nothing hit early. Bites even when teams like Mercer won but counteracted by Notre Dame not covering.

    My plan now is to do round robin parlays on all the underdogs on ML < +300 and then favorites covering the spread on everything else. Six teams by two/three/four (repeat four times across so I get all the days action covered). Even at $10/unit it's still a couple thousand.

    Then I'll probably place a few hundred on preferred games and just enjoy the day. I know the round-robin parlays (especially on dogs) are a terrible idea, but I find it fun.
     
  7. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2012
    Messages:
    705
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    I won't lecture you because it is your money and you hit the nail on the head FUN! Do what is fun for you whether that be taking the home run to hit on big ML dogs or parlays or whether it is like me who is a numbers guy by nature and likes to break does games statistically and analytically and turn a consistent profit over the long haul albeit not as big as a home run ML or parlay. It's all about having fun. It just happens to be that it is not that much fun me if I lose that's why I gave up big dogs and parlays for the analytics and it's worked and it's been fun.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.