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Slots Lion's Share in the Wall Street Journal

Discussion in 'Slots' started by Royal Flusher, Feb 6, 2014.

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  1. Royal Flusher

    Royal Flusher Savvy Gambler

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  2. gambler

    gambler VIP Whale

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    Thanks for posting that Flusher. I laughed at this statement -

    A year and a half ago, Mr. Andrews moved the machine a few hundred feet as part of a renovation; he said the reaction from players was panic.
     
  3. BigRick617

    BigRick617 Tourist

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    hopefully ill get a chance to take a shot at it this weekend
     
  4. donfairplay

    donfairplay Low-Roller

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    I opened up the casino gaming forum to see if this was posted.

    Guess I'm the slow pony today.
     
  5. SH0CK

    SH0CK Stylin' and Profilin' Quasi Tech Admin

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  6. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    Hmm... sometimes it can be pretty hard to get on that machine even if you just want to run a couple of twenties or a hundred or two through it. The more people that know of it the more likely it even be harder to get on.
     
  7. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    I'm annoyed that I am 99.9999% sure the reporter twisted the "Wizard of Odds" word around. Otherwise, it's a decent article.
     
  8. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Haha I'm pretty sure at least one of them is from a board member, based on a story I remember them posting once before. But it's probably not my place to say who.
     
  9. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Yep. I know what part of the article you're talking about.
     
  10. Royal Flusher

    Royal Flusher Savvy Gambler

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    I spent a lot of time talking with him but I ain't in there. I know of one that is.
     
  11. Royal Flusher

    Royal Flusher Savvy Gambler

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    This part didn't make sense to me:

    "Greg Gemignani, an attorney specializing in gaming issues for Lionel Sawyer & Collins in Las Vegas, said the past 15 years have surely lowered the machine's house edge, as gamblers have the same shot of hitting a much higher jackpot than before.

    "For your dollar, the return is going to be much better now than when it started," Mr. Gemignani said. Players don't have to win the jackpot to go home with more than they started."

    I think the point was that as the jackpot goes up, the overall theoretical EV of the machine increases. But that only comes true for the person that wins the jackpot. For everyone else that plays and doesn't win, the EV would be based on all possible outcomes minus the jackpot, and that never changes (assuming they didn't change the chips in the machine).
     
  12. vegasvic

    vegasvic VIP Whale

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    Interesting article. As a non slot player I had never heard of this machine. Now I'll have to take a shot if I can get on. Do people actually line up to play it? It sounds as if players stay on it a LONG time once they get their chance.
     
  13. billduhcat

    billduhcat Low-Roller

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    They did a hedcut picture of the machine, which is also awesome.
     
    Big Game 2017 == Vegas XXVI
  14. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    Yes, this is pretty much the case. I even think this game likely has a positive expectation now with the jackpot being so high... however if it was a 90-something percent payback machine in the past it still is a 90-something percent payback machine, the only person that will actually realize the positive expectation is whoever wins the jackpot.

    That is pretty much the classic thinking from people who have no idea how house edge and expectation works. Mathematically the machine likely has a positive expectation and they think that translates to something they will be able to realize when reality is only one player, the one who wins the jackpot, will.
     
  15. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    Pretty cool article!!!
     
  16. weluvvegas

    weluvvegas Vegas Slot Junkie

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    I'm even slower - just saw the post on Facebook and came here to see if it was posted.

    I've never really had that much of an issue being able to sit at it - it's always open at one point of another during my stay. It is annoying when you find a "lifer" sitting there with a book tho - like I did last time when I went back for my second round at it!
     
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  17. AceTen

    AceTen Low-Roller

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    I shall donate the machine to VMB when I hit the jackpot this weekend :)
     
  18. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Yep, this is correct if they have never changed the virtual reel sets (and the report claims they haven't). For everyone but the winner, the return of the machine they experience will exclude the jackpot, and the return of the non-jackpot prizes is obviously somewhere in the 90s.

    I will find this unit this month for sure so I can play it! :eek:
     
  19. joshrocker

    joshrocker VIP Whale

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    The point is, at some point, the machine will enter into a positive payback area. Without a lot more information, we'll never know what that number is. From the math perspective, all that matters is your bet comes with a positive expectation result even if the variance on that bet is extremely high. On occasion, you'll see the lottery hit positive EV territory when the jackpot gets really high. If you could play the lottery daily when it's in this territory you would except to make more money then you put in if you could continue to play. Winning the actual jackpot is what gives you the expected value, without it, it would be a terrible bet. You'll see poor pay VP machines occasionally hit positive EV territory if they have a jackpot that's "overdue". It's all based off of that one large payoff.

    I've seen a lot of different theories posted about this machine. I've seen theories putting the positive EV jackpot anywhere from "it's already there" up to 10 million dollars.
     
  20. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    By math the machine's payback should be somewhere in the area of 112-116% right now.

    But I'm saying that doesn't mean that for every dollar you put in, in the long run you should be expecting $1.12-1.16 back... its still a negative expectation machine except for the person that eventually hits the jackpot.
     
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