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Kentucky Derby

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by volfaninbama, Apr 6, 2014.

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  1. volfaninbama

    volfaninbama High-Roller

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    I think California Chrome is looking like the best favorite coming into the Derby
    Since Big Brown. I have a futures bet on this horse at 18-1 I just wish I would have bet a lot more. Only problem I can see with this horse could be post position. Anyone. Else have thoughts on the derby a month out.
     
  2. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    California Chrome looked awfully good winning the Santa Anita Derby. He's sure to be the betting favorite to win the Kentucky Derby.
     
  3. CIrvine

    CIrvine Low-Roller

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    Unfortunately there are usually too many horses in the race.
     
  4. ruralhipster

    ruralhipster Low-Roller

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    I like Hoppertunity still, but just because I pick by the name. If I get to Reno by the months end I'm gonna throw some money down on the derby.

    Is there a bet for the first 3 horses in any order? If so whats it called?
     
  5. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    That would be a "trifecta." If you wanted the three horses in any order, it would cost $6 for a $1 bet called a "trifecta box" at most tracks.
     
  6. jackincols

    jackincols Guest

    IMO, a trifecta box is a decent bet on the Derby. You may want to consider throwing a 4th horse into the mix though, considering the usual number of entries. I think a $1 tri box bet in this case would be $12. $2 tri box cost is $24. Just really depends on how much money you want to put out there.

    edited to add: I've been in Vegas when both, the Derby and Breeders Cup have run and both are a blast in the Sportsbooks. I've preferred Mirage's Sportsbook.
     
  7. kitson

    kitson VIP Whale

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    a four horse 1 dollar tri box is 24 bucks. think horse A on tip, and 6 different combos of B C D in second and third. BC BD CB CD DB DC. then switch the top horse and repeat. 24 combinations.

    another way to add some horses is a wheel, of which there are many variations. for instance, if your budget was 18 dollars, you could wheel

    A B C in first

    A B C in second

    A B C D E in third

    i am going to be in las vegas the week before the derby, but have to leave on friday morning. at least the post position draw will be done by then. i saw no horse from the wood memorial that i liked much after the race, including the winner. would love to hear your opinions on other horses worth consideration.
     
  8. Rookies11

    Rookies11 Tourist

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    KD Day and Breeders' Cup Days are the ideal days for Novice and Pro Bettors to bet the Exotics ( Exactors, Tris, Superfectas).

    Why?

    Because the betting pools are enormous and hitting an Exactor with a Favourite and low odds horse can pay up to $200 easily for a $2 wager, which is multiple times its normal value!:beer:
     
  9. slimmy28

    slimmy28 Low-Roller

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    The Derby is going to be interesting this year. California Chrome will be a deserving favorite and looked very, very good on Saturday. Having said that, it seems to me that many of the top horses this year are more speed favoring horses who like to be out front or at least very close. With 20 horses in the field, a hot pace is almost guaranteed. I am thinking depending on the track condition, a closer might be the play this year. Of course, who knows until the final draw of who is in, post positions, weather, track conditions, etc.

    The best part of Oaks Day, Derby Day, Breeders Cup days, etc. is indeed the size of the pools. Lots and lots of betting options.
     
  10. jackincols

    jackincols Guest

    Thanks for the correction, kitson. Don't play the ponies that much to remember what the exotics betting cost is.
     
  11. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    Here's a fun, reasonably good payoff bet. The 10ยข superfecta. Your horses have to finish 1st 2nd 3rd 4th.

    Here's an example of a ticket that would cost $8.40:
    1.2
    1.2.3
    1.2.3.4.5
    1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10

    I've seen the dime superfecta pay in the thousands.
     
  12. slimmy28

    slimmy28 Low-Roller

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    I agree Dime supers are great, but unless it has changed for this year, Churchill hasn't offered the dime supers on Oaks and Derby Days. The only two days you can't play dime supers. The explanation I heard in the past was that it "would tie up already long lines."

    Again, maybe it has changed for this year, so if I'm wrong, I do apologize. I just remember either last year or the year before, a group of friends and I pooled money for group tickets (pick 3, pick 4, pick 6) and were going to throw some 10 cent supers out there too. Of course, when we saw the $1 increment, we passed.
     
  13. slimmy28

    slimmy28 Low-Roller

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    Also, a fun and easy to follow bet to play on a big day like derby day is either a place or show parlay. For newbies, To bet a horse to "place" you are saying the horse is going to finish 1st or 2nd, to bet to show you are saying 1st, 2nd or 3rd. The payoffs are smaller than win bets, but if you string 3, 4 or 5 races together (including the Derby) because of the pool sizes and field size of the derby, it can make the day fun with a potential decent win with low risk.
     
  14. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    You are correct, they're not accepted on the Oaks or the Kentucky Derby.

    NOTE: Trifecta and Superfecta wagering on all races that qualify under Kentucky statutes. Daily Double and Super High-5 wagers are $1 minimum straight bets. The Pick-6 is a $2.00 minimum wager. Trifecta, Pick-3, Pick-4 and Pick-5 wagers are $.50 minimum straight bets. The Exacta is a $2.00 minimum straight bet with $1.00 boxes and wheels.With the exception of Oaks and Derby Days, Superfecta wagers are $.10 minimum straight bets.
    http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-handicapping/post-times-wager-menu
     
  15. PPtraderal

    PPtraderal Low-Roller

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    Derby key horse bet

    I generally use the 1$ trifecta key horse bet. I don't usually bet boxes unless I like each runner equally. On the key ticket let's say you like like the 10 to win. So you call the bet with 1 dollar tri key 10 over 3,6,12. It matters not how the bottom runners finish as long as they make the money. I generally place four tri keys using different horse to win over 4 horses. I spread due to the competitive nature of the race, large field, and most of all the anticipated trip. With a 20 horse field there's bound to some major bumping and horses getting checked. A lot of times the best horse simply does not get the trip needed to win. On the exacta front I always box Calvin Borel, regardless of odds with four horse I like. Borel is the master of reading the Churchill strip. So one bet for sure is California Chrome boxed with Borel a couple times in the exacta. I've been playing horses almost 40 years and can say the Derby is the most difficult race to handicap. I also pay attention to any horse making his third start of the year. I call these pattern horses. I also look at the dosage numbers. My only trepidation with California Chrome is that he might be over raced. Whatever direction you choose, may the horse be with you. It's going to be a very interesting race as always. Best to all. Al C.
     
  16. Johnny Utah

    Johnny Utah Tourist

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    I'm interested to see what Bobby's Kitten does in the Blue Grass Stakes this weekend. Also, I am going to opening day at Emerald Downs this weekend in Seattle. If anybody has the online DRF form for Saturday 4/12 and wants to e-mail it to me that would be great.
     
  17. slimmy28

    slimmy28 Low-Roller

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    Another bet that's not a bad one for the Derby is either the Kentucky Oaks/Derby Double or the Woodford Turf/Derby Double. (The Woodford Turf is the usual race prior to the Derby on race day). Since I haven't been known to be able to pinpoint the Derby winner (except for Barbaro in 2006), either or both of the Double options allow me to play a few combos. If you like a long shot or two in either race and you are right, the bet will likely pay very nice, even if you have the favorite in the other leg of the bet. For example last year's Oaks/Derby Double paid over $600. A long shot in the Oaks with the favorite in the Derby. On the flip side, if it comes in favorite/favorite like it did in the Woodford/Derby Double, you won't get back much as last year's paid $19 with Wise Dan and Orb.

    Bottom line...tons of options to throw money around. I love Oaks/Derby weekend.
     
  18. volfaninbama

    volfaninbama High-Roller

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    My top 4 as of today

    California Chrome I think this is the star horse will factor in all my wagers
    Hoppertunity
    Danza very impreasive Ark Derby
    Wicked Strong Deep closer needs right pace but this style worked a lot lately

    These are my top four

    We Miss Artie longshot pick
     
  19. slimmy28

    slimmy28 Low-Roller

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    I think you are on the right track with Wicked Strong. Also, if Commanding Curve gets in (right now on the outside looking in, needs a few horses to not enter) he will be my longshot play. His running style suits this field in my opinion. He may not win, but I think has a strong shot to hit the board and will be at tremendous odds.

    California Chrome will be the deserving favorite, but I hate that he has trained at Los Alamitos and is flying to Louisville just a few days in advance.
     
  20. volfaninbama

    volfaninbama High-Roller

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    Dance with Fate another horse I have been looking at to add to my exotic bets.
     
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