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Kentucky Derby, Preakness & Belmont Picks

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by volfaninbama, May 2, 2012.

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  1. volfaninbama

    volfaninbama High-Roller

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    I like Bodemeister as my top pick to win.
    My trifecta box would be
    Bodemeister
    Hansen
    Union Rags
    Take Charge Indy

    Let's here your picks.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 8, 2012
  2. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    I'm guessing that Bodemeister won't hit the board Saturday. His last race was too close to the Derby. I don't have a pick as of today, but, I'll have one posted by Friday. Good luck to all of us.
     
  3. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

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    Alot of people got off the Union Rags bandwagon after his Florida derby loss, I re watched the race many times, it wasnt that bad. he got attacked by the other horses, boxed in coupled with a bad ride from leparoux and he still closed down the stretch.
    I also like Gemologist. Was just loafing along down the stretch and when a horse got upbeside him he decided he needed to get back to work and started running again and pulled away at will to remain undefeated.
    Don, I am interested to hear your pick in the coming days. If you could give your reasons for the picks as well that would be great.
    This is my 10th derby and still havnt picked a winner.
     
  4. Kc4400

    Kc4400 Tourist

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    Daddy Nose Best

    Maybe Gemologist and Daddy Long Legs in an exotic
     
  5. volfaninbama

    volfaninbama High-Roller

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    I like Bodemiester because of his impressive Arkansas Derby and his blazing fast work since then. I know a lot of people think he ran his Derby in Arkansas but his workouts have been really speedy since then so I think he has another big race. If he does win then I see the Preakness as the race that he may bounce on.
     
  6. vegas_or_bust

    vegas_or_bust High-Roller

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    Super box = Alpha, Union Rags, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another

    I typically don't like the west coast horses that much, but I think it's interesting that Bodemeister fled California to get away from Creative Cause and I'll Have Another.

    I think Bode bounces a little for the reasons stated above. Also, he was all the way cranked up the for Arkansas Derby because he needed the graded stakes earnings to even get into the Derby. Most of the other big contenders were getting cranked up for this Saturday, rather than being forced to give their maximium effort in their final prep race.

    Alpha is a huge overlay. He had to check at the start of the Wood and he still came all the way back and almost beat Gemologist. He is bred to run forever, and I think he is sitting on a huge race.
     
  7. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

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    I haven't looked too closely yet, but if the odds for Alpha, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and El Padrino stay about where they are, I like those values.
     
  8. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

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    Alpha did not almost beat Gemologist....Gemologist started loafing along down the stretch until Alpha got up next to him and Gemologist pulled away again. It was like a superstar wide reciever slowing down near the end zone and showing the defence the ball and then taking it away again.
     
  9. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    Anyone need the form for Saturday, please PM me.
     
  10. jrinct1

    jrinct1 VIP Whale

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    I LOVE the 18.Sabrecat.Just have a feeling on it.. Also like the 5,10, and 15.
    But may just play the 18 across.
     
  11. BackInVegas

    BackInVegas VIP Whale

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    Creative Cause to Show

    That would be my bet.
     
  12. chitownjohn

    chitownjohn High-Roller

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    Here's my tri box.
    Dullahan
    Bodemeister
    Creative Cause
    Alpha

    Out of these, Creative Cause at 12-1 is my straight-up win play.

    Best of luck to everyone. :beer:
     
  13. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    Don't forget that you can bet the Derby Oaks dd to the Derby. The bet will have to be in by 5:45 ET today.
     
  14. Hogman

    Hogman VIP Whale

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    Smarty Jones (winner)and Afleet Alex(3rd) were Arkansas Derby winners who competed well with 3 weeks rest.
    A lot of it depends on how good or bad of a trip they have with a 20 horse field.
     
    First Trip 2017
  15. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

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    Yep. There is nothing out of the ordinary about 3 weeks rest, particularly with a Baffert horse. And the Arkansas Derby has been a better 'feeder' in recent times to the Derby than the Wood or Santa Anita, run a week earlier.
     
  16. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    All very good points. I just feel that he won't be in the money. It won't be the first time that I've been wrong but if he wins I won't cash any of my tickets.
    Best of luck to all.

    Baffert has only won 2 races today. . .
     
  17. Hogman

    Hogman VIP Whale

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    Good luck to everyone. With 20 horses no telling who will win.
     
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  18. vegas_or_bust

    vegas_or_bust High-Roller

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    The same stance I am taking. You have to throw somebody out! Seems like a deep crop of good 3 year olds this year. If Bode wins, god bless him, but I won't be cashing any tickets either!

    On a related note, I saw that Alpha wa 26-1 on the live odds after the first 56k had been bet on the Derby. Juicy overlay IMO.

    Union Rags was 6-1, Bode 7-1
     
  19. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

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    Borel's horse has already been bet down from 15-1 to 8-1.

    Did a DD on the Oaks/Derby: Grace Hall, Believe You Can / Bodemeister, Daddy Nose Best, Creative Cause, Alpha, I'll Have Another
     
  20. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    My DD is 3.6.10 / 3.4.5
     
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