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Video Poker Is there a VP DDB Strategy for Royal Flush vs. Optimum Strategy?

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by wccan, Dec 27, 2015.

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  1. wccan

    wccan Tourist

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    Hi There,
    I have been wondering if there is a way to understand how much the return will be impacted on DDB by playing aggressively for Royals instead of say pairs or other hands. I think to myself so many times when a hand comes up, I have two choices, a safe choice..and a go for a royal choice. There are very common decisions in Flush scenarios for example where you have 2 or even 3 potential cards that could create a flush, but instead the safer route on the bank roll and optimum strategy is to go for the Flush. I see this in many many cases where there is a pair of say 5's and at the same time, 2 or 3 potential cards for a royal. I wonder if you would dramatically increase your chances at royal and at the same time accelerate your potential for ruin(i.e., BR = Gone). Anyone ever tried this? I know that most optimum strategy plays are often geared to winning JorB or 4oak, Flush, but I have never seen anyone attempt to describe a legitimate strategy to go for royals and what kind of ER that might be without one as we all know they are still far and few between. I just wonder so many times when I see 2-3 cards going by that could be royals and how many one might miss by picking the low pair for example! Musing for the day...
     
  2. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

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    I have not had many hands with low pairs with 3 to a Royal, in my relatively new jump into the VP world. Although, I have played a ton, live and simulation, during this relatively short time period. One scenario that I have run into a lot is 4 to a flush, with 3 royal cards. Every one of these instances, I went for the royal...never once did I make it. I still do not have DDB down pat, and not sure I ever will...lol.

    In your particular example, I don't know what proper strategy is, but I would probably end up going with the pair every time.
     
  3. homanga

    homanga Tourist

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    Win poker is a pretty nifty app that allows simulations and calculates EV based on pay tables which you can customize. I run difficult spots through there when I'm curious.

    I have no affiliation with app fwiw
     
  4. flyguyfl

    flyguyfl Low-Roller

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    If ever in a VP tournament you want to shoot for the Royal all the time. Most tournaments use DDB as their game of choice
     
  5. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    I'm not convinced of this. Depends on the prize breakdown. If the breakdown is very top heavy, then I think a "royal only strategy" is likely better. But if the structure is more flat, then playing straight up with minor adjustments (i.e. 3 to RF > KK-JJ in most tourneys) is likely better.

    I hope to do a little math on OP's question later. But currently don't have the time.
     
  6. vetsen

    vetsen Tourist

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    There are a few things you could do if you have some video poker software.

    #1 you could input a hand like 22AK9 and see how much it costs you to play the AK. (about 1.65 coins, this is a pretty bad play)

    #2 you could see what the royal would have to be worth to make the 2-card royal the correct play. (this one is way up there, probably over 20k)

    #3 you could find a royal amount that changes the strategy to the approximate number of "go for the royal" plays that you'd like, then take the hand frequencies from that strategy and put them into a standard DDB pay table. Then use excel or whatever math to calculate the return of that strategy on the standard paytable to see how much playing that was costs you.

    I used to play a fair amount of DDB progressives. This is from memory so maybe not super accurate but my recollection for closest plays is something like this:
    High pair vs 3-card royal
    4-card inside straight with 2 high vs JT, QT
    AA vs 3 card royal
    A vs AT

    I personally never got a progressive where a 2 card royal beat a pair.
     
  7. JeJas

    JeJas VIP Whale

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    Unless it's progressive and the royal is very high, there is no point to chase the royal in DDB.
    After all, the royal only pays twice as much as 4 Aces w kicker but at much lower probability.
    Any deviation from optimum strategy basically means throwing your money away.

    Fundamentally, VP is not a game for potential big payout, it is for the best EV.
    If you only care about the potential big payout, you should play Megabucks.
     
  8. wccan

    wccan Tourist

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    Thanks all and Happy New Year!
     
  9. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Finally got around to crunching some of the numbers, and making some minor changes won't cost you too much. But obviously the more extreme deviations you make, the more money it will cost you long term. The way this is written, it assumes you make all the changes of the steps before it. Overall steps 1-3 aren't too harsh and can increase your Royal chances by almost 20%. But when playing 9/6, errors are much more extreme than 9/5 because the house edge of 9/6 DDB is 50% less than 9/5!!! Steps 1 through 3 increase the house edge by almost 15%! (1.0211% vs 1.1678%)

    Abbrevations:
    RF = to a Royal flush
    FL = to a flush
    KK, JJ, 55, 22, etc = pair of that rank
    SF = to a straight flush
    high = high cards... ace thru Jack only
    RF any = Royal cards Ace thru Ten
    gutshot = inside straight draws (e.g. AKQT, KQJ9, KQT9, etc)
    gap = missing rank (e.g. 568 suited)
    HA = House Advantage


    Changes to 9/6 DDB Optimal strategy

    Step Description............................................... Return (100% - HA).......Royal Freq. (1 in)....Relative Inc. of HA from opt. Relative Inc. of RF Freq. From opt.
    0........optimal..................................................................98.9789%..........40081.2............................0.00%...........................................0.00%
    1........3RF > 2pair > KK-JJ > 4FL....................................98.9425% .........35147.2............................3.56%..........................................14.04%
    2.......3RF > AA > 2 pair > KK-JJ > 4FL............................98.8660%.........33787.8..........................11.06%..........................................18.63%
    3.......2RF high > 3SF w/0-2 RF high > any gutshot.........98.8322%.........33463.9..........................14.37%..........................................19.77%
    4.......2RF high > 55-TT...................................................98.6436%..........32771.............................32.84%.........................................22.31%
    5.......2RF high > 22-44...................................................98.4649%..........32403.6..........................50.34%..........................................23.69%
    6.......2 RF Any > Pairs or worse.....................................97.5711%...........29390.6........................137.87%..........................................36.37%
    7...... ace > Jack > Queen > King
    ........> 3 card SF 1 gap, all gutshots, KQJ, QJ, KQ, KJ..97.2536%........ 29014.7..........................168.96%..........................................38.14%


    Changes to 9/5 DDB Optimal strategy

    Step Description..............................................Return (100% - HA).......Royal Freq. (1 in)...Relative Inc. of HA from opt. Relative Inc. of RF Freq. From opt.
    0......optimal.................................................................97.8711%.........39891.5................................0.00%.............................................0.00%
    1......3RF > 2pair > KK-JJ > 4FL...................................97.8242%........35430.2................................2.20%............................................12.59%
    2......3RF > AA > 2 pair > KK-JJ > 4FL.........................97.7429%........34049.3.................................6.02%............................................17.16%
    3......2RF high > 3SF w/0-2 RF high > any gutshot......97.7138%........33545.5.................................7.39%............................................18.92%
    4......2RF high > 55-TT................................................97.5163%........32849.2................................16.67%............................................21.44%
    5......2RF high > 22-44................................................97.3328%........32482.8 ................................25.29%............................................22.81%
    6......2 RF Any > Pairs or worse..................................96.3922%.........29384.8................................69.47%............................................35.76%
    7...... ace > Jack > Queen > King
    ......> 3 card SF 1 gap, all gutsshots, KQJ, QJ, KQ, KJ 96.1020%.......29014.7................................83.10%............................................37.49%
     
  10. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Note: Don't look at this table in Tapatalk or on a cellphone. Lol
     
  11. wccan

    wccan Tourist

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    Triglmane
    That's she fancy work my friend, thank you. Seems like it's worth trying a bit to see what happens. I realize that for the increased odds, there is likely BR decay very fast, but would be fun on nickels to give it a try and see what happens. I'll spend some time on this tomorrow at bellagio and see what happens! Thanks again!
     
  12. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Doing the first few change won't alter results too badly. It will eat away at your BR a bit, but you mostly sacrifice that guaranteed push or better for a 1 in 1081 shot at a 800 for 1 Royal Flush. That scenario also only comes up a few times an hour.

    Good luck on your trip!
     
  13. wccan

    wccan Tourist

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    Well. Spent some time working this strategy on quarters to see how it worked. No RF, and a little hard to break the normal habits. But, the BR went faster, but honestly, seemed no faster than when you get on a machine that is just not cooperating. Will spend more on it the next trip to see if I see a trend or not. Thanks again Trig for doing this. Happy New Year!
     
  14. adbynot

    adbynot High-Roller

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    What were you playing, 10 play STP or normal 1 line.
     
  15. wccan

    wccan Tourist

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    Single line standard machines
     
  16. powersof10

    powersof10 Tourist

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    Seems to me, without knowing the math exactly, that you'd be better off chasing royals on a lower variance game like JOB since the royal pays the same as DDB anyways.
     
  17. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Depends on your ultimate goal, I think. If you're looking to increase your amount of royals, you're probably wanting big wins more frequently. So DDB seems like an appropriate game to me.
     
  18. adbynot

    adbynot High-Roller

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    Totally makes sense because you could be holding a bare A for the royal draw and pull AAA+kicker for 2000 coins.
     
  19. Beacon

    Beacon Tourist

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    I like this app a lot for testing strategy. Very basic graphics but gets the job done.
     
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