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Video Poker IS it VP FATE?

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by WHIVGOYTUBE, Nov 10, 2013.

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  1. WHIVGOYTUBE

    WHIVGOYTUBE MIA

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    We just came back from Biloxi, and wonder if some people are just VP gifted.

    I ask this because of what I see here on the VMB, trips to Vegas, and Biloxi.

    How about this...

    This last trip to Biloxi, best I could do (and GF), we each got one 4OAK.

    When at the HardRock Biloxi, at the bar, this guy screams, YES!!!! IT is happening again, with his Wife by his side.

    He is playing $1 DDB, and hit AAAA+kicker for $2000.

    PLUS...
    He hit $1 DDB AAAA+kicker "TWICE" yesterday, and screams "It is happening again..... His wife confrims this...

    What he and his wife means is.....

    This trip = 3 times $1 AAAA=Kicker = $6000

    Their trip the year before....

    ROYAL FLUSH $1 times two = $8000

    ------------------------------------------------------

    They play at the crappy pay schedules at the Bar only (like us), averaging about 5 hours of play per day.
    But we only average 200 hands per hour, we play slow,@quarters


    Now lets do the math on this....

    ----------------------------------------------------------------

    400 hands per hour, lets just bump it up to 500 hands per hour.

    Five hours per day = 2500 hands played.

    Their trip is three days = 2500*3 = 7500 hands total per trip.

    Last trip I assume is the same...

    DDB AAAA+kickjer happens about 1 out of 18,000+ hands
    DDB on a Royal happens about 1 out of 46,000+ hands

    So in 15,000 hands...

    2 Royals
    3 AAAA+Kicker

    -----------------------------------------------------------------

    What are the odds on DDB AAAA+kicker? Then do it three times?

    What are the odds on DDB Royals? Twice on the last visit?

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    Yes, I understand swings, but this is on two back to back trips, with 7500 hands played per trip.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------

    So with just one 5c Royal under my belt, and still waiting for my first 25c Royal with a $1000 payoff...

    -------------------------------------------------------------------

    I just think some are gifted and people like me make up the difference.

    I read so much here on this forum where some people hit and hit and hit, while some seem to never hit or hit or hit.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------

    Last trip to Vegas on DDB, not a single Quad. On Duces, not a single Royal Flush with Duce (125 credits).

    You can say variance all you want, but I feel some people are destined to hit, and hit again, while others are not.

    What is your observation? :faint:
     
  2. NandJfrmNJ

    NandJfrmNJ High-Roller

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    I firmly believe in luck. My husband has been very lucky over the years; me, not so much. While it's theoretically true that better pay tables and perfect play make your money last longer at VP, from my experience you have to be lucky to win. Sometimes I watch my husband play VP and he does not always follow the "rules" but he still wins.
     
  3. Tbone3336

    Tbone3336 VIP Whale

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    While I am more a numbers and statistic leaning fellow, it really does amaze me how streaks like this do happen. I have been on an extended quad drought now going on a year, reflected in my dwindling bankroll and my wife who plays slots and only started playing VP this past Summer hit two $1 royals so far since June, and had 8 quads on a cruise in September no less seems to be on a streak with minor proper play knowledge of DDB. So either my timing is bad and I alway play at the wrong time or it is just happenstance, I am waiting for the statistics to start to roll back to even for me.

    So maybe it is more luck and timing than statistics and I am like Whivgoytube and help make up the difference for all the lucky winners by losing more than winning :( , but I am hoping not or I might as well give up playing :)
     
  4. Electroguy563

    Electroguy563 Over-Fried Gambler

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    It never hurts to play correct strategy with VP.

    But I believe in being in the right place at the right time.....:beer::thumbsup:
     
    Going to Hawaii's 9th Island!!
    Going to Hawaii's 9th island!!
  5. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    This is a very interesting subject which had come to my mind of late because of the discrepancy in results between me and my dear friend and fellow gambler Gaggles.

    Before last Tuesday, I hadn't hit a royal or aces-kicker in over 2 years. On our most recent trip Gaggles hit at least one royal and 3 aces-kicker.

    But here is the really interesting twist in this 2 year time frame, I am up over $15,000, while I would guess Gaggles is down close to that same amount.

    I've thought a lot about it and I firmly believe these results are based on 3 things:

    #1 Amount of play.
    #2 Game Selection.
    #3 Accuracy of play.
    #4 Quitting while ahead.

    I know for a fact that Gaggles is playing far more hands per hour for much longer period of time each day than I am. I just happen to have more interest in other games like roulette, etc, while he really feels the love for pressing those hot buttons!

    I really try to make an effort to veer towards single-play bonus deluxe with a decent 8/6 pay table. The thing I like about this game is that it rewards the 4OAK very nicely at 400 credits, but has a lower variance than DDB. I also find the strategy slightly easier as there are no premium quads.

    I know my accuracy level is around 95%. I spent about 2 years solidly learning DDB and Bonus Deluxe strategies. 95% obviously isn't perfect, but the hands I am missing are low cost. I'm not playing this regularly super drunk or super tired. I know I make more mistakes when I am in those conditions.

    I always try to "quit on a quad", and I'll often cut a session short to lock in the win. If I hit something big like a royal or a strong run of $800 quads on $2 Bonus Deluxe, I'll often reign in my play for the rest of the trip to preserve the trip win. I just love booking a trip win even if it means being kind of a lam-o the last day (and my buddies can confirm I often am a lam-o when ahead).

    In summary, while no single factor besides luck & variance can explain these crazy single sessions, I firmly believe that even over a time frame as short as a single 3-night trip, and certainly over the course of a year my choice to play more slowly, in shorter duration sessions, less sessions per day, at lower-variance, higher pay-table single play machines with a reasonably accurate strategy and a willingness to quit early on a nice win has led to better results. :wave:
     
  6. Joe

    Joe VIP Whale

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    RNG be damned, nothing beats being lucky! A couple of times per year I'll fire up Bob Dancer Winpoker just to make sure I haven't picked up any bad habits. I play DDB at about 97-99% accuracy according to his game.

    Since 04 I've had 16 Royals and 8 aces w/kicker. Yet, I'm on a 3 year+ drought on Royals. I'm not playing any different, strategy-wise. I just haven't been lucky lately.

    That will all change in 4 days, right?:wink2: Gotta get a Royal on my birthday trip, right?:poke:

    Edit: I'm already getting a good feeling. I made this post at 11:11 on 11/11. Gotta be a sign! Not that gamblers are superstitious.
     
    Christmas
  7. Kingbarkus

    Kingbarkus Low-Roller

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    Joe, today is a yo-yo day. Craps players know what I mean.

    Vegas in 3 days!
     
  8. jfn111

    jfn111 Low-Roller

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    Some people are luckier then others. I had two friends who always seemed to have a horeshoe up their ass. Every time I have gambled with them I would see them winning these big jackpots. My wife would shake her head and say "maybe your just not lucky at gambling".
    I helped the first friend do his taxes. $360,000 in 1099's with nothing to show for it. AMT at the State level killed him and he lost his bar.
    The second friend has had his two houses foreclosed on and is now living in a rental.
    On second thought maybe I am lucky at gambling. :evillaugh
     
  9. imwired

    imwired Low-Roller

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    I agree with pretty much what everyone is saying. Playing correctly is a start but then it's luck. I went thru a period where I was getting a Royal practically every trip -- one trip I got two of them. Then it slowed down. Lately I've been losing every trip but I did get a Royal a couple of months ago. You just never know.
    My big problem (other than if I don't get anything) is to hold onto my winnings. I always say "I'm here to play.":beer:

    Just came back from a trip. I was at 4Queens and held one deuce and got the other 3 dealt to me. That was exciting but no Royals this time.
     
  10. lvmb

    lvmb Low-Roller

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    I've always wondered if those who get many Royals 'go for the Royal' at the expense of perfect strategy? For instance holding suited Ace Ten, sacrificing JOB to go for 3 to the Royal etc.

    I can't play video poker too long before I get bored so my only Royal came this last trip on a 100 play penny machine for a whopping $40!
     
  11. Joe

    Joe VIP Whale

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    Speaking only for my wife and I, we never throw away a payable pair for 3 to a Royal. We also never hold a ace, ten for a royal.

    When we lived in Vegas and visited our little corner VP bar/restaurant there was a retired firefighter who always went for the Royal, throwing away payable hands, any time there was a Royal chance. He certainly had more Royals then us, but I don't know how much he invested?
     
    Christmas
  12. WHIVGOYTUBE

    WHIVGOYTUBE MIA

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    Before any trip, I always crank up Bob Dancer Win Poker.

    The last Vegas DDB run without a quad left a sour mentailty towards the game. So this last trip to Biloxi, switched back to BP or Duces if the pay schedule is OK.

    The 2 to 1 on two pair do add up, but the game is not too exciting on Quads.

    However, on Duces, I have hit the DUCKS twice and this is what you live for in this game. However, as others have said, getting a natural 4OAK aces in this game and winning 20 credits is painful to see.

    Next, not many people like it, but I also like Joker Poker Kings or Better. The two mid level payouts of 500 and 1000 keep it interesting, but decent pay schedules are hard to find.

    I get tons of quads in this game, and that is what keeps you going, like the 4OAK in Duces. Also hit the SF, but have yet to capture the 500 or 1000 in this game.

    And still waiting for that $1000 Royal..... I keep saying, I overdue, and it will happen on the next trip. But my history makes me feel like that sign in the restaurant that says.....

    Free Beer Tomorrow. :evillaugh
     
  13. imwired

    imwired Low-Roller

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    I agree. I won't throw away a payable pair for 3 of a Royal. What about if you get nothing (bunch of unrelated cards) but one is a 10. Do you keep the 10 since it's part of a Royal? I do and I don't think it's ever gotten me a Royal but I've gotten lots of straights and other smaller wins holding tens.
     
  14. Joe

    Joe VIP Whale

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    I don't keep a 10 and I just checked with the leading Royal expert in the household and she never keeps a 10 on a throw away hand.

    She's killing me 25 to 16 on single line games.:cry:
     
    Christmas
  15. imwired

    imwired Low-Roller

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    I guess I should change my strategy then. I noticed when I was practicing on a free game holding the tens didn't seem to do much good.
    thanks:beer:
     
  16. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Maybe you were their horseshoe? This has mostly been me the last 6 months or so, with a few exceptions, particularly last month in Tunica. I have seen a lot of people around me win pretty big relative to their wager. But your story is an important one. Video poker is not worth losing any property over.

    It's about a 10% error versus throwing everything away at either 9/6 JoB, 9/6 DDB, or full-pay deuces. So that would cost you a little over 4 cents at the quarter level per occurrence. The most common mistake I see is much worse than this though. Probably over half the people that play DDB do NOT keep 2 pair when it contains Kings, Queens, or Jacks and just keep the high pair instead. At 8/5 DDB, not keeping 2 pair costs you about 20 cents per occurrence playing quarters. If the full house pays 9 for 1, then it's 29 cents per occurrence. :eek:
     
  17. Joe

    Joe VIP Whale

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    I don't know where this 50% + number comes from, but NOBODY I know, plays DDB that way. If it is not anecdotal evidence that you just perceive, then please post a source for your numbers.

    There are a lot of dumb VP players, but this one is a little hard to swallow. :nono:
     
    Christmas
  18. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    It's anecdotal evidence (and maybe I am overestimating but it is at least 25% minimum, ime), but I am also more often playing nickels on the floor, and DDB isn't as often paying 9 for 1 on the full house. Once I've also noticed a woman before that did this while playing 9/5 Triple Double Bonus, even a bigger error since trips only pay 2 for 1 (43.4 cents at the quarter level).

    And I am not necessarily talking about people you know well. People that play DDB a lot, or who play in downtown Vegas are more likely to know because they will care more about playing right. But if you're playing a random Strip poker machine next to a stranger, this is what goes through their heads: I have two pair, I get five coins either way, but if I just keep the Kings, I could win 250! They totally ignore that winning 45, 40, or god forbid 35, comes much, much easier. If you have never seen this, then you're doing a good job of MYOB. I, on the other hand, am a nosy asshole, which also let's me play slower. :evillaugh
     
  19. WHIVGOYTUBE

    WHIVGOYTUBE MIA

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    Originally Posted by WHIVGOYTUBE View Post
    Data for 8/5 DDB

    What are the odds on DDB AAAA+kicker? Then do it three times?
    1 in 16,239. 3X or more in 7500 hands: 1 in 85.8

    What are the odds on DDB Royals? Twice on the last visit?
    1 in 40,065. 2X or more in 7500 hands: 1 in 64.6

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    Yes, I understand swings, but this is on two back to back trips, with 7500 hands played per trip.

    Doing both back to back: 1 in 5542.

    I am sorry, and I need help in understading what this means.

    I am confused to the above 1:85.8
    I am confused to the above 1:64.1
     
  20. imwired

    imwired Low-Roller

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    So are you saying that if I have two aces and two jacks, I should hold both? I would hold the aces to try to get four of them. This is dumb?
     
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