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Interesting Blog on Theo

Discussion in 'Comps' started by sindustry, Jun 27, 2014.

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  1. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

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    While searching the internet for Theo calculations on various table games, I came across this interesting blog...

    http://moneymakinggirl.wordpress.com/2013/06/06/the-secrets-to-your-theoretical-win-at-the-casinos/

    This happens to be one of several "Comps" related post the blogger has. The link below is about comp levels and was pretty surprising and seems to be lowballing the actual levels...at least it seems so to me.

    Http://moneymakinggirl.wordpress.com/2013/05/29/51/


    Any comments on what this person is sharing?

    I am still interested, and can't seem to find, a reliable theo calculation for UTH and Crazy4.
     
  2. abrown83

    abrown83 Tourist

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    I think she shares a lot of interesting information but a lot of it is parroting stuff she was told from the casinos.

    Her Theo calculations are wrong. Anyone who tracks their play closely knows that the House Edge isn't used as the loss calculation.

    I think loss rates are calculated somewhere between house edge and historical actual losses.

    Example: A Blackjack game has a .7% house advantage. Historically the loss rate in the game is 5%. So maybe the comp level is set at 1.25%.

    This is why UTH players know they are being over comped. House edge is just over 2% but actual loss rates are closer to 40%.

    Also I think it is fairly obvious that players are categorized some level on ability in certain games, but know one clearly understands how that effects Theo.
     
  3. Packer

    Packer VIP Whale

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    I have posted this before... This is from the horses mouth! Or from his email I should say. This is from a major Casino for BJ.

    $750 Ave. X 28 hours X 60 hands X .015 = 18,900 is your theoretical

    From that theoretical we consider 35% as your earned comps. 18,900 X .35 = $6,615
     
  4. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    I think her numbers look pretty good. At least for blackjack her 53% is spot on for the best BJ games at MGM casinos.

    In Packer's $750 avg for 28 hours example your theo would be about $11k on the best shoe or DD games at places like Aria, MGM, Bellagio. Its been kind of confirmed that they do take skill into account so that number may just be for the typical skilled basic strategy player.

    Her numbers for comps, e.g. room, RFL, RFB, etc. seem pretty sensible to me as well.
     
  5. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

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    I need to do a better job of getting my numbers when I finish a UTH session. Am very curious on how it is being rated compared to the other table games.
     
  6. 4Eyes

    4Eyes Low-Roller

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    The blogger's formula (Theo Per Hour = (Average Bet) x (Hour Of Play) x (% Of The Game) has a major flaw: It ignores game speed. The formula implicitly assumes 100 decisions per hour for all games.

    Also, possibly a typo, but since she is multiplying the product of "Average Bet" and "% of the Game" by "Hour(s) of Play," the result should be "Theo", not "Theo per Hour."
     
  7. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    In one of her posts she says she was a casino host. Some of the info looks like it lines up with conventional wisdom, but some of either her writing or her english is broken and there's holes in some of what she writes about ADT vs ATT.
     
  8. sindustry

    sindustry VIP Whale

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    I felt that too...i seemed to follow, but then I would think, "wait, what?"
     
  9. dankyone

    dankyone VIP Whale

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    She is almost certainly Asian, with English as a strong but second language, and an ex or current host at a higher end MGM prop. The info is good, too detailed to be from an outside person. The lingo is MGMish--would love to hear this in CETese.
     
  10. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    Her incentive posts are right out of the casino, so she must be an ex-host at MGM casinos...don't know how many international or domestic high rollers will be reading though...
     
  11. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Yeah I agree, she's clearly posted straight from some documentation. "Broken" english isn't really accurate, her english is actually very good, just an occasional hiccup sometimes in a critical place.

    In one of her replies, she wrote "Time is bad so we don’t get a lot of tips no more.", which also made me think Asian.

    As to which property, she's listed theo of 275 – 399 for a regular room, which I think is maybe a little low for the higher end MGM properties (I'd say it's more like 400 - 600), but her info may be a few years old, like at the trough of the recession.
     
  12. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    It doesn't ignore speed, she just doesn't use house edge. Her "% of the Game" is a % of your average bet, not the house edge. As others said it sounds like she is/was an MGM host because her info is good and very detailed. As far as I know MGM uses a constant speed for each game, so in BJ whether you are playing heads up or with a few people you earn at the same 53% of your average bet per hour. If you wanted to know your actual theo you are right, you would need the speed and the actual house edge. But she's posting the numbers the casino uses.

    I'd like clarification on her craps number though. She uses 76% but do they rate craps the same whether you just play the low edge bets or do they rate you higher if you play prop bets? Its hard to imagine its the same for both but maybe they do.
     
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