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Table Games Increasing your BJ bet/hand?

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by SW, Dec 18, 2012.

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  1. SW

    SW Well-Known Member

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    Being new to playing blackjack, I’m interested in your method for increasing the amount you bet per hand.

    I tend to use a cash management approach. If I start with $100 at a $5 minimum table, I’ll play $5/hand until I build my stack up to $140-$150. Only then will I start betting $10/hand. If I fall back to $100 or less, I’ll start play $5/hand again. I’m aware that I might be missing some “opportunities” based what cards have been played and what cards are left in the shoe. This method, I feel, allows me to play without the risk of losing too quickly. It may also keep me from the big wins.

    Your playing style is personal choice. I would like to hear what works for you.
     
  2. DonnyC

    DonnyC VIP Whale

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    we will use $5 as a base for this analysis (alternately I could say '1 unit' but putting a monetary value on it is helpful).

    STEP 1: Bet $5, win = leave $10 on the table

    STEP 2: Bet $10, win = pocket $5, bet the other $5

    STEP 3: Bet $15, win = pocket $10, bet the other $5

    STEP 4: Bet $20, win = pocket $15, bet the other $5

    STEP 5: Bet $25, win = a) pocket $20, bet other $5 and continue on with the same strategy or b) leave the bet at $25 and continue to pocket the winnings until you lose then revert back to step 1
     
  3. tmaas21

    tmaas21 Low-Roller

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    This will be an interesting thread....

    Here's my style --- and I play 100% by the book strategy, no thinking involved.

    I'm a math teacher, who has a firm understanding of the statistical side of the game....not sure if that's a good thing or not.

    I like to play 1-on-1 with the deal (kills me in the comps department I've found -- I always sit on 3rd, and can see the card as it comes out of the shoe, thus signaling my action before the dealer even knows what he/she has....plus, as they learn I'm 100% by the book, they take the formalities of the games away and we fly through shoes)

    I am a positive progressive player, and I press one unit for every win. Lose, and I'm back to my base bet.

    What I'm looking for are streaks. Unlike the normal player, I don't mind losing 8 hands in a row -- in fact, it excites me. Because for every 8 win streak by the dealer, I should also get on one of these streaks.....the rest (choppy streaks) are basically a wash.

    Here's the thinking.....the dealer and I will both go on streaks throughout the session. By playing 1-on-1, my # of hands go up, thus increasing the number of streaks by both sides. (plus, I hate waiting on other people to make a decision on 15 against a face card)

    On a dealer streak of 8 wins at a base bet of $100.....I lose $800.

    On a player streak of 8 wins at a base bet of $100, pressing a unit each time, I'm up $3600.

    Net gain on a 8 hand streak win = $2800....more than enough to cover the choppy portions of the shoe.

    Now -- this theory runs into trouble in regards to splits/double downs.....but over the years I have accepted the fact that these situations more than likely determine if you're a winner or loser in a certain situation....so I do it by the book every time, regardless of my bet amount. It's what you have to do if you plan to win.

    Many of you might tear this theory apart --- but I'm a believer. If you can stay on the positive side, and not get pissed and increase your bet on the losing side of things (chasing) you will be much better off in the long run.

    The problem with this is comps....because you never get rated correctly playing this way....I am a generous tipper and always nice to the crew, so that helps.

    I think I covered most of the strategy.....this could be applied at any base unit....let me know if you have any questions.

    To the others --- I would like to hear the flaws you see it.
     
  4. AndyAkeko

    AndyAkeko Time magazine's 2006 Person of the Year

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    The flaw I see is that you're losing 82% of the time.

    To simplify the math, let's say it's a 50-50 proposition on winning or losing.

    * When you bet one unit and lose, you're down one unit. This happens 50% of the time.
    * When you bet one unit and win, you're doubling on the next hand. If you lose the two unit bet, you're down your original bet of one unit. This happens 50% of the time. (50% of 50% for 25%).
    * When you win the double, you're up three units. So when you bet three units on the next hand, if you lose, you're back to even. (50% of 25%, or 13% and you're going to lose that next bet 50% of the time, 50% of 13% or 7%).

    So your wins have to be more than four times greater than your losses to finish with a profit. You win two units if you win 1+2+3 and lose 4. You win five units after 5 (1+2+3+4-5) at which point you start overcoming your losses. Winning four straight hands happens 1 in 16 times, or 7% of the time. What you win in that 7% has to overcome the 82% of the time you lose.

    Obviously the plus side is that you're never risking more than one unit at a time, so you should get a lot of play. But you could dip substantially into your bankroll before you start catching your winning streaks.
     
  5. merlin

    merlin VIP Whale

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    I guess the honest answer is do what you want, whether you ratchet up fast or slow, there is no "right" answer. Nothing more boring than flat betting, or watching someone flat bet for that matter, I start at $10 and tend to add $5 for each hand won, quicker if I win a double down or two. If I get my bet to $50(which does happen fairly frequently), I am up several hundred. It's not unusual to play for an hour or more and get nowhere, but then win 4 or $500 on one good shoe. Since you are fairly new to the game, it will be several years before you settle on what's right for you, best of luck.
     
  6. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    This! +1

    I've usually been using a positive progression of 1-3-2-6, always drop back to 1 and start over after a loss or after winning the 6. Its just a progression someone once wrote about that I've come to like. Other times I just play it by ear. I used to mostly flat bet with the occasional pressing of my bet but now I think that is miserable and dull. Mathematically there's no real argument that favors any betting system unless you're counting cards - though I guess one can argue a positive progression makes mathematical sense because if you're on a streak the count is probably in your favor so upping your bets is smart. And also you could argue that since the odds are against you anyway you should be trying to take advantage of the volatility by increasing the game's variance through bet spread. So maybe there is a sound mathematical argument for it....but its hurting my head to think about.

    But in any case I agree flat betting is just boring.
     
  7. lawfive

    lawfive Low-Roller

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    I like betting what I won the hand before.

    Using $10 base:

    If I win, next hand I bet $10.

    If I win via blackjack, next hand I bet $15.

    If I win via a single double down, next hand I bet $20.

    If I win via a split and 1 double down, next hand I bet $30.

    (you get the idea).

    Reset to $10 with a loss of any type (although I usually just divide my bet in half if I surrender, not less than $10)

    It won't help the EV, but its more fun than flat betting. :peace:
     
  8. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    I'm a big believe in the hard press. Can send you away from the table very quickly but can create a big stack in a hurry. But after all when I'm at the tables its a go big or go home mentality, I find no enjoyment out of walking away from the table up just $100. So here goes my basic strategy for betting.

    Bet $25, win --> Add $25 on top
    Bet $50, win --> Pocket $25, Add $25 on top
    Bet $75, win --> Pocket $50, Add $25 on top
    Bet $100, win --> When it gets here I consider my gut feeling and proceed by either... Pocket $50, Add $50 on top or Pocket $100 and Flat Bet $100 for a bit.

    If at any time I lose a hand I revert to the $25 original bet.

    No betting strategy will alter the house edge but flat betting will get you no where other than a slow painful death so press and live a little.
     
  9. blackjacknut

    blackjacknut VIP Whale

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    Bet more when the count is high and less when it is 0 or negative. Spread your units 1-8 on a 6 or 8 deck shoe....1-5 on a pitch game.
     
  10. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    Blackjacknut is correct, if you know how to count and properly do the math with the count relative to the size of the shoe. "The World's Greatest Blackjack Book" is a good tool regarding counting and betting strategies in relation to the count. I enjoy counting but when I get a few too many drinks and I'm just trying to have a good time it dampens my mood lol.
     
  11. MikeOPensacola

    MikeOPensacola VIP Whale

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    +1 BJ nut. I've been doing this for years with good results. Not quite the spread I could get away with 30 years ago, but it is still a profitable way to play, despite what someone said about my play in another thread.
     
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  12. blackjacknut

    blackjacknut VIP Whale

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    No you have to watch your spreads more closely these days....but it is still a fun way to play the game and make some money while your having fun! :thumbsup:
     
  13. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    For What It's Worth...

    I look for a $5 2-deck game...with my base-bet at $10.

    With a count at -1 through +1, I bet the $10.
    Worse count, I go to $5.
    +2 and I go to $15 or $20 (depending on the number of players and my particular seat).

    Count of +3 and I'm at $20 to $30.

    Higher count? I never go higher than $50.

    While I'm keeping a good count, this has proven fairly effective. However, it is "work", and as such, I tend to grow weary using the method after a few drinks and a few hours.

    So, if my count starts getting sloppy, I then just look at the cards that came out on the previous hand... (in a two-deck game, this is almost as effective).

    If it's a lot of small cards, I raise my bet to $20. If it's a lot of larger cards I keep it at $10 or drop to $5 (table-limits permitting). This has proven to be less effective, but I usually still win a little bit...or when I lose, it's usually a very small amount.

    I am planning to go with a 5-10-15-25-40 betting progression on my next trip.
    I will be using this at Golden Gate, probably at the CSM table, where 'surrender' is available and DAS.
    I will surrender every 15 and 16 against any dealer 9, 10 or Ace. After any surrender, I will leave my half-bet out there (or get it back up to $5).
    Any loss takes me back to $5. Any $37.50 or higher win (even when after a double or split or blackjack) takes me back to $5.
    I will split according to basic strategy.
    I will double down according to basic strategy, except when my total amount on the table is already at $25 or higher. Then, I will only double against a dealer 2 thru 7.

    So, for any 5-hand streak I experience, I win $90. For any 5-hand streak the dealer has, I lose $25.

    Of course, for a ton of hands, it'll be win one and lose one... flat-betting would leave me 'even' when that happens...playing this method, I lose $5 when this happens.
    In other words, I have no idea how this will work, but it ought to fun experimenting with it!
    :beer:
     
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  14. mjames1229

    mjames1229 VIP Whale

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    I use this strategy (though I always start at $10) and will increase by $5 until I hit $40. Then I leave the bet at $40 until I lose and go back to $10.

    However, even with how I play and what everyone else says, there is one very important thing to remember.... it is YOUR money, bet and spend as you wish (that includes hitting a 15 against a dealer 5. It isn't the statistically best play, but it is YOUR money to use how you wish.)
     
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  15. Polemarch28

    Polemarch28 Tourist

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    This is a valid point. There's nothing more annoying than people berating other players at a table for their hunches and guesses. Their "bad" plays have no impact on your probabilities, they are as likely to help you as hurt you.

    That being said, I don't think I'd advise people to hit a 15 against a dealer 5. I agree that people should enjoy themselves and not obsess over making correct plays for the sake of other players, but I also assume people want to give themselves a shot at winning. Players who routinely hit 15 against a dealer 5, and similar plays, deserve to be given a few tips, not to berate them, but just because they may not know or understand. I've often seen players standing on 15 against a 10, but hitting 15 against a 6, because they get the strategy backwards and are too afraid or proud to ask anyone.

    Anyone who stubbornly insists on their right to make horrible plays, while technically and defensibly within their rights to do that, does not have my sympathy when they lose their stack quickly, and I probably won't play at their table, because I do find that I enjoy the experience more when playing with more skilled players.
     
  16. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    +1 ^^^ Cannot stand players playing on hunches or feelings but at the same time I do not berate them because it is there money to throw away. I'd just prefer they hand it to me instead of the casino then I color up and find a more experienced table. The games already shifted against you, why make bone headed plays on top of it. The books and strategy were created for a reason so take advantage of them! Sorry I had to rant a bit since I refrain from doing it at the table lol.
     
  17. flamingogo

    flamingogo Tourist

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    Wouldn't 1-8 be a little too small to make any decent profit? I find (and have read elsewhere) that 1-12 is ideal for shoe games (obviously with enough $ and not bringing too much heat). I also try to spread to two hands when the count is at 2 or higher. Besides for spreading out the variance, I find it to be more fun! But I'm definitely no pro.

    Just curious to hear what you think, blackjacknut.
     
  18. Fafa2e

    Fafa2e Low-Roller

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    I usually play $15 or $25 minimum tables, start with the minimum bet, then raise $5 after the first win and $10 after each successive win until I lose a hand and then drop back to the table minimum and start all over (same bet level for pushes). So.........

    $15, $20, $30, $40, $50 ..........
    $25, $30, $40, $50, $60 ..........

    I usually buy-in with 20x the minimum bet ($300 for $15 minimum; $500 for $25 mimimum) and play basic strategy throughout this progression, including splits and double downs.

    This progression, like any positive progression betting pattern depends on hitting a few winning streaks of five or more hands and keeping the losing streaks short. Also you can lose a lot of money on a multiple split / double down situation at the high end of the progression.

    In my non-scientific simulation of this betting pattern with an iPhone app, I've progressed from an initial $1,000 buy-in to $16,345 playing 9,152 hands; however, I have also burned through the $1,000 buy-in over the course of two or three simulated shoes in previous sessions. In the real world, I usually will not buy-in beyond the initial 20x the minimum bet, if I lose that, I'm done, at least for a while.
     
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  19. blackjacknut

    blackjacknut VIP Whale

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    I've found that 1-8 units is ideal for me...keeps the heat off on the regular floor at $50 a hand. If I'm in the HL room I will vary this a little but I'm playing from $100 to $300 a hand to. Oh by the way this is for most strip properties only. Don't go downtown and try a 1-8 spread you will find yourself out on the street quicker than you know it. I did a 1-5 spread at El Co one time and was asked to leave before the first shoe was done (cheap ass place). I won't go to two hands, just brings unwanted attention. I can keep the heat off in the HL room no issue, on the casino floor all depends on the dealer. But my "act" is pretty good so I don't worry too much....LOL
     
  20. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    +1
    Agree on the "berating" part. However, when that player asks what they should do, I will chime in with the correct basic strategy play... same thing if they appear to be confused about what to do... then I might just state "I always stand on that when the dealer has a 5 showing"... or, "I would never split 5s - I would double it".

    The only time another player's bad play actually did hurt me was on a very positive count going into the hand and I was dealt an 11 with my bet pressed up.
    He was just to my right and was dealt two 10s.
    He split them, made another 20 on the first hand & re-split. He ended up making two 19s and another 20.

    I chose not to double down, given that he had radically changed the count by his play.

    Next card was a 6, giving me 17...the dealer drew another small card and made a hand, beating me.

    I left the table immediately after that hand... yes, I was annoyed, as I had increased my bet based on the count... but I never said a word to him & I covered most of the press by NOT doubling when I otherwise would have.

    But, other than a count-based expectation motivating one to raise their bet - and that expectation is unmet specifically due to bad play, I cannot see how another player's decisions can hurt you any more than they help you.
     
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