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I'm no good at this

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by TomTWI, Jan 8, 2015.

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  1. TomTWI

    TomTWI High-Roller

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    I'm a terrible sports bettor. How do you all have success? Every time I think I know something I'm proved wrong. I'm not losing much because I don't have the confidence to bet much but I would like to bet more and more often.

    I think part of my problem is listening to sports broadcasters to much. The other thing is I'm such a fan for my teams I can't be realistic. I've been wrong all season on the Packers even though I read every thing I can find about them.

    Any suggestions are appreciated.

    TomTWI
     
  2. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    broadcasters don't know anything
    look for solid reasons to bet against the chalk
    bad teams can and do cover
    a well-known radio sports guy around here who loves to bet has said over and over that he can't bet on bad teams
    he loses often and is a nice fade
     
  3. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    Information:
    -From my own experience (YMMV)... most sports bettors pick winners in about 45-55% range. In other words, most sports bettors are probably losers (54.5% is considered the break-even point for picking sides and totals). Very good sports bettors pick winners in about the 60% range. Anything at 65% and beyond (consistently achieved over time) is considered other wordly and would be criticized as unbelievable. Very few can achieve these types of results and anyone touting anything to the contrary you should be very skeptical of.
    -Most sports bettors tout their wins and rarely talk about losses. Just because someone says they're on the Packers this weekend, doesn't mean they didn't bet 5 other teams that lost. Sports bettors tend to need action and will bet things they didn't plan on betting right at the moment of truth because they need additional action and see a "hot" line for something they did little research on and understand very little about. Most sports bettors are in it for the action and not to make money... which is why most sports bettors lose, IMO. They lack money management...

    Money Management
    -I've personally found (and this is my own experience), that the less picks I make on any given day, the better I do. So, I normally stick to one or two bet per day. The pick I feel strongest about. Trying to bet on everything has always lead to disaster for me, i.e., bleeding myself dry in one day. I may still drain account by betting one pick per day, but I do so at a much slower pace. It also allows me to evaluate what went wrong with a certain game and helps me to formulate a bettor position in the future.
    -Stay away from parlays unless you're doing it for fun. I love betting parlays, but rarely do it because I rarely hit them. The juice is high on them.
    -I like teasers a lot, but they're also sucker bets. My bookie has a sweet 4 team 12 point teaser (on football) that I'm addicted to. I win a lot of them, but the juice is high.
    -If you find you like betting teasers and parlays, don't spend a lot on them until you become confident in them.
    -Don't spend a lot of money betting your emotions, i.e., don't show support for your team by betting the farm on them. Just because you want them to blow out the other team, doesn't mean they will.

    Data Gathering
    -Use a sports betting site like covers.com to gather information about matchups. I use this site all the time and almost exclusively.
    -Determine what stats are more important to you. I like to look at injuries above all other information. I tend not to put much weight on weather since forecasts are often bad. Some people like watching the movement of the spread and betting on the opposite side of the public. There's different ways of looking at the same information and deriving your own strategy for picking winners. You just need to figure out what works for you.
    -Filter out what others say. If you feel good about a position in a bet, don't let someone else sway you. And, if they do, make it a no-bet rather than betting the opposite side because someone gave you a "hot tip." Those hot tips rarely lead to anything good, IMO. Better to not bet something and not lose rather than making a snap judgment and lose. You'll kick yourself for those snap judgments.
    -If you notice a trend while betting... create a rule and stick to it. I won't bet an NBA team on the road with no rest. I've been burned many times trying to do just that, so I don't do that any longer.

    These are just my own observations from the last 14 years of sports betting. This is just what I do. Others love parlays and bet them exclusively and probably do well. Or bet many times per day and do better that way. Everyone has their own individual way of betting sports and they're all probably just as good as any other. When things don't work for you, don't do them. And, when things do work, do them more often.

    I think the most important thing to remember is just to have fun, try not to get in over your head, and treat sports betting as recreation.
     
  4. TomTWI

    TomTWI High-Roller

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    Thanks to all that responded. It gives me a place to start.

    TomTWI
     
  5. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    I forgot to add look past the most recent game a team has played.
    Look for misleading final scores
    So much emphasis is put on the last game a team played.
    Sometimes a couple of bad bounces or a kick return sends the game spiraling in a different direction.

    That happens more in college than in the NFL though.
     
  6. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    unda's post is solid! Good stuff.

    IxAcc's point about finding a reason to bet against the chalk (aka the favorite) is good too. When I started out betting sports I was always finding myself on favorites and not very successful. Regardless of the sport I would lean favorites.

    It is hard to look at an NBA game, lets use my Sixers as an example, and see a bad team and lay your money on them. But there are times when a line will scream "bet me". This comes with devouring as much news about the teams as you can. The sports radio people don't know much...but you can get good info from handicappers on Twitter or some of the sports betting forums. I use Sportsbook Review and Covers to help me with some stats and line moves.

    The Sixers may be getting 10-12 points one night and you think no way am I betting on them...but the other team could be coming off a back to back and have a couple players out. Like the other night against Cleveland when LeBron and Kyrie did not play. Not only did the Sixers cover but they won outright.

    In NFL I actually look for teams who get a lot of public bets that may cause the line to creep up higher than it should be. Dallas, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and New Orleans have been teams where the line will be a bit higher than it should be because of all the action those teams are getting.

    Obviously there are "key numbers" to look for in football (3, 7, 10, 14) because many games are decided by those. So if Philadelphia is playing Chicago and the Birds are favored by -7.5 I may take Chicago because of that extra half point even though I am an Eagles fan.

    You'll get your feet under you as you experience different situations and games.

    Good luck!!
     
  7. vegasqc

    vegasqc VIP Whale

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    Leave emotions out of it

    Dont bet on your favorite team or againts a team you cant stand

    Look at the numbers and keep your heart out of it
     
  8. arrgy

    arrgy Tourist

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    I am right there with you...San Diego State (lets NOT score for once) , Western Kentucky (the worst last play of a game ever) , and Kansas losing to Temple in an upset that hasn't happened to Kansas since the 1970's. yeah I had them all this year. Texans not being able to cover against Jacksonville of all teams. All are SOLID picks, SOLID. Meanwhile in the back of mind I know the Eagles will crush the Giants, and I don't bet it. Dallas goes on a hot three game streak, which again in the back of my mind I know I should I bet and tell myself at the window to bet it, and I don't. I'm down 10 large and will try to make it up Super Bowl weekend. Its just all the weirdest things always happen in the games I bet.

    Having said that..take this to the bank because I am not going to bet it (so it SHOULD win). Seattle will crush the Pack, the Packers can not handle quick aggressive defensive lines like Bufffalo has. Luck has been horrible against the Pats, I do remember last year New England covering the 1H and the game and the over in their divisional round very easily.

    Take Seattle -7 and New England -7.

    Then...take Seattle in the Super Bowl if the line is under 7.
     
  9. mjames1229

    mjames1229 VIP Whale

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    I was on the correct side of the Music City Miracle.
    Right about the era (late 90s / early 00s) I had Jax on Monday night against Pittsburgh, and the Jaguars blocked a late 4th quarter FG and returned it for a TD for the cover.

    I also screwed up once, making a bet for a guy I know (I wouldn't call him a friend, but I knew him well enough to take bets and pass them along... he never welched, even when he started chasing). One night on a chase, he wanted the Bulls -12-1/2 (vs the Clippers when they were horrible). I called my bookie's hotline and didn't know it moved to 11-1/2. I didn't check my phone messages until after bowling that night... and found the Bulls won by 12. I collected from the guy and the book.

    Funny thing, though... I never lost a bet in my life.
     
    Super Bowl with my son
    2017 USBC Open Championships
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