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I'm Just Trying To Get Even Eddie...

Discussion in 'Casino Gaming' started by Ben Jammin, Oct 26, 2012.

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  1. Ben Jammin

    Ben Jammin VIP Whale

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    Well Clark if you're thinking about buying me a new Cadillac, I won't take it.

    Trying to get even is the worst thing you can do. You're on a losing streak, the casino has a good chunk of you're money and you're trying to win it back.

    STOP right there.

    Clark, it's folks like you that come to Vegas and blow the family nest egg that built this town. Maybe you ought to go back to your room and let Ellen lick your wounds.

    Having a win goal and a loss limit is the key to gambling. If you're on a losing streak what makes you think you're luck is going to change? There's a psychological factor that comes into play that distorts you're thinking process.

    However, if you're on a heater nothing succeeds like success, and you get into a groove that cant be killed by conventional weapons.

    You can believe what you want to, but let the Force be with you and you can't lose.

    Have you ever been on a winning streak and everything you touch seems to turn to gold, Or been on a loser and you couldn't throw a drowning man a life preserver if you paid him to take it?

    The math guys will deny it until their dying day, but there's something magical about having a winning streak, and when you're on one you should capitalize on it to the fullest extent. You'll know when things start to cool down, but you'll walk a winner!

    Don't listen to the naysayers, they can only bring you down.

    There is no impending doom. It's all what you make it.

    Can that winning streak happen to you?

    YOU BET!

    But never, never try to "Win It Back".

    Come back later when Lady Luck is in a better mood, and you will win.
     
  2. Joe Strummer

    Joe Strummer VIP Whale

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    Ben,
    I agree.
    I just walk away if I lose.
    "It's not my lucky day today...there's always tomorrow."
    .
    But I had this ( somewhat, the same) discussion
    a few weeks ago, on this board.
    The math guys were all over me.
    "The dice have no memory.....the next toss could start
    a hot roll...etc,"
    They would not allow the fact that "the table is cold."
    Streaks...streaks...streaks......they can be cold /they can be hot.
     
  3. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    the math guys

    I had this argument with both of my sons when I took them each to Vegas for their 21st birthdays.

    They insisted that there was no such thing as a "hot" or "cold" blackjack table. That the mathematical odds of winning or losing were identical from table-to-table, assuming the same number of decks and identical rules.

    When I pointed out that streaks do, in fact, occur - I got shrugs of "so what? any streak can happen at any table at any time"

    I was forced to play my trump card of "well, if I FEEL better playing at one table versus another, and that happens to correspond with my winning more money, then that's what I plan on doing"...
    (neither of them had any comback for that!) :evillaugh
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  4. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    I'm a math guy. I rarely if ever place a bet where I don't know the exact odds. But I also believe in streaks. More importantly, I believe that if you think you're going to lose, then you're going to lose. So if the current run affects you mentally, then you need to get away.

    But if you're positive, then there's no reason to believe the streak applies to you. My brother and I walked up to a craps table at Foxwoods. It was like a morgue, and a guy tells us 'don't play here, it's cold as ice.' We look at each other, then both simultaneously tell the guy we're staying, because we're turning it around. And then we did. We heated it up to the point where they raised the limit and made us leave. Then we went to another 'cold' table and did the same thing. It's not about the table. It's about how you feel.

    I've been down to an empty rack at a craps table with all my remaining chips at risk and come back to win double my original buy in or more.

    Streaks happen. But things also change.
     
  5. WrongWayWade

    WrongWayWade VIP Whale

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    Loss limits and win goals and 'money management' are just voodoo math. As long as you are going to gamble again SOMETIME, it doesn't matter when you leave the table. If you are ahead and NEVER GAMBLE again, the quitting while you're ahead has value, but otherwise, it's meaningless.

    You play a single long gambling session over your lifetime. When you choose to insert gaps in that session has no bearing on your total results.

    Continue to play if it's fun. If you're way behind or ahead for the session, your chances of reversing or continuing that trend are identical to those when you first sat down.
     
  6. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Well, your sons were right. Streaks can only be observed in hindsight.

    But since its a negative expectation game you are presumably playing for fun, it STILL doesn't make sense to play in a table that "feels unlucky" or where you don't like the vibe.
     
  7. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    of course it doesn't change the house advantage to come back later, but it can definitely change your attitude and outlook and that has a big effect on the choices that you make, which has a big effect on the overall outcome. you like to point to statistics and percentages and how they never change and they're important, but they are only part of the equation. if you're on a losing streak and mentally you're feeling down and in a bad place, you're rating to lose no matter what the stats say. coming back fresh doesn't guarantee you'll have better luck, but it does help you make better decisions while you're at the table.
     
  8. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    That's not 100% true.

    Loss limits and win goals do nothing to improve your odds, its true. And if you leave "while you're ahead", and gamble again later, you are still in effect playing a lifetime session.

    But a lot of this is about gambler psychology more than odds.

    A person who keeps buying back in to get back to even, or tries to aggressively press wins or keeps playing longer because he is up will be no more or less lucky than before. But he could well end up playing much longer than he otherwise would have, and/or raising his average bet significantly. Which could increase the house take or even result in him losing more than he can afford to.

    Put in terms of your statistical analogy, loss limits and win goals don't just insert random breaks in your one lifetime session, they also reduce one or two of the variables in the formula (number of iterations for sure, and perhaps average bet as well).

    So while you're correct that you can't just stop at the right time in each monthly session to be a lifetime winner, your losses will likely be lower if you manage your habit better.
     
  9. Joe Strummer

    Joe Strummer VIP Whale

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    "Streaks can only be observed in hindsight."
    .
    ......can't agree with this one.
    .
     
  10. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Do you have any basis for not agreeing other than what "feels" right?

    If you can tell a streak in advance, can you walk up to a Baccarat table and tell me how many dealer/player wins in a row we are about to see?
     
  11. Tuna

    Tuna High-Roller

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    I don't think he meant that he can tell the future, but simply that it can be recognized while it's happening.
     
  12. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Which is still false.

    If you see that someone has won 3 hands in a row, you are using hindsight.

    Whether that streak will extend to 4 on the next hand is no more or less likely than the overall odds of the game.

    So even if you notice it "while its happening", you are still only using hindsight.
     
  13. Tuna

    Tuna High-Roller

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    If you start pressing after the second hand and it continues to 20, what is it called then?
     
  14. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Luck?

    You didn't know it would go to 20 when you started pressing. And winning the next 18 was no more likely because of the previous 2 wins than it was anyway. If you didn't press and it went to 20 it was still the same outcome.

    And the counter question is what happens when you start pressing after the second hand and ...... lose the third hand? Wow, must have miscalled the streak! False alarm, everyone!
     
  15. Tuna

    Tuna High-Roller

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    I'm not arguing one way or the other. I was just clarifying what somebody wrote and asked a question regarding your logic. You had me until the first word of your post. If math is 100% correct all the time, the word luck shouldn't even be in your vocabulary. Luck is the exact definition of a heater or if a table is hot/cold. You either believe in it or you don't.
     
  16. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Not really.

    Luck exists in the exact same context as a streak. It is a CLASSIFICATION for what has already happened. It is hindsight. If something good but unlikely happens to me, that was lucky. But it does not mean I am preternaturally lucky and will experience more good outcomes. Nor that the penny in my pocket was a "lucky penny".

    Get the distinction? You asked what I would call it after the fact, and I would call it luck.

    As a side note, the terminology "math is 100% correct all the time" is a bit problematic, too. Flip a coin 1000 times, and you won't always get 500 heads and 500 tails. The chance of one or the other being 50% means that over time, the overall results will tend toward that number.
     
  17. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    yep, it's a streak as long as it continues. once it doesn't, it's no longer a streak. but when i've won 5 in a row, i can say "i'm on a streak" and as long as i keep winning i'm still "on" that streak. nobody's saying the last 5 wins make the 6th more likely or that anybody knows how long the streak is going to go, but there's nothing wrong with using the present tense until you lose.
     
  18. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    When I hit two points in craps, I press my passline bet. If I hit a third, it's a streak, if I crap out, it's not.
     
  19. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    I always try to remember to just walk away when I'm losing. We all know when you realize you're just chasing. I try to walk before I get there.

    Take today for instance. :evillaugh Apparently I have upset the VP gods because I can't get any cards at all today. I mean yesterday wasn't great, but I stayed even for the day. Today it's pain. I can't get 4 to the royal to even turn into a straight today. I actually clapped at a full house because it's the best I've had all day. PAIN.

    Drink service at TI got bad around 6pm. I decided to move to the Seafood Shack bar for better drinks. Had about 6 Captain & Cokes in an hour while I bounced around on my $100 buy in. Once I was drunk and down $50 I cashed out, tipped the wonderfully attentive bartender an extra few bucks and stumbled up to my room to eat the rest of my Canter's Deli sandwich from lunch.

    I suspect this decision has saved me about $500. :haha:
     
  20. Electroguy563

    Electroguy563 Over-Fried Gambler

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    But never, never try to "Win It Back".

    Come back later when Lady Luck is in a better mood, and you will win.[/QUOTE]


    I confess that I will try to "win it back". But it depends how I feel. If I feel confident then I will try to get even and hopefully ahead. But many times the conditions show it is futile and I will quit.

    I'll save my ammo for later.

    By the way, I think gambling is a fun pastime. I don't try to analyze it to death nor do I care to delve into the minute details of how and why and when. I just play how I feel and that determines if I continue or quit.

    I just make sure I understand how the game is played and the odds of each bet.

    It's gambling and we all know what gambling is. I hope.:poke:
     
    Going to Hawaii's 9th Island!!
    Going to Hawaii's 9th island!!
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