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Hundred Or Nothing

Discussion in 'Non-Vegas Chat' started by Jimbucc, Feb 18, 2015.

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  1. Jimbucc

    Jimbucc VIP Whale

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    My wife and I took a little road trip to the Rising Star Casino in Rising Sun, Indiana last week. We got a free room offer and decided to take the four and a half hour jaunt from Cleveland. It's a river boat casino in the area with Belterra and Hollywood casinos. We like Rising Star because they have nickel video poker and keno machines.

    We also stumbled upon a hundred or nothing slot machine. It's a dollar machine and only plays one credit. You either get 3 red sevens for $100 or nothing. I threw a couple of bucks in and got nothing. My wife was down playing VP so I told her to try this machine. She put $2 in and got nothing on the first try and to our amazement hit for $100 on the second try. 1423669419271.jpg 1423618907358.jpg

    This put her back up for the day. The following day she put in two bucks again before we had to go back home and hit it on the first spin. Next spin nothing. Unbelievable to hit $200 on a mere 4 bucks. Sweet.
     
  2. bardolator

    bardolator Lifelong Low Roller

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    Glad you're not totally snowed in. Interesting get-even machine. I could see me putting a few bucks into a slot like that on a bad gambling day.
     
  3. Jimbucc

    Jimbucc VIP Whale

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    Yeah we got a lucky break in the weather. Left last Tuesday and came home the next day. Then the frozen tundra came in. It was 48 degrees down there and no snow.
     
  4. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    That's a great idea. Put this machine near the exits of casinos, at the Vegas airport, etc. Market it as the "Get Even" machine. Sounds like a great concept. Maybe make it a 100x multiple of whatever denom you play, so you can play $1 to win $100 or $5 to win $500. Seriously, someone should market it like that.
     
  5. cjohnson202

    cjohnson202 VIP Whale

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    This reminds me of the "Green machine" where you can bet $1 - $5 and whatever dollar amounts show up on the screen, that's what you get. It's $1 a line, for a maximum of 5 lines. I won $100 once. I've had friends win $50. It's usually at the entrance of casinos (flamingo, TI and Mirage have them). I'm guilty of putting a $20 in once and awhile on my way out of the building
     
  6. merlin

    merlin VIP Whale

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    I haven't seen one of those machines in a long time, I used to figure you could sit and watch someone play it and if they lost a lot of spins in a row and left, it would be due. Whenever i would walk by no one was playing however.

    I could see how it would be real easy to get in deep at a game like that, since the more you lost the more certain you would think that next few spins would produce a winner.
     
  7. bardolator

    bardolator Lifelong Low Roller

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    Even if someone were to commit the "machine is due" fallacy, they still might lose more slowly than they were losing on a machine that takes more than a buck a spin.

    100-to-1 seems like a terrific return to a player like me who seldom if ever hits the slots. Yet I wonder how many regular slots players would walk past because the top payout is only a hundred bucks.
     
  8. merlin

    merlin VIP Whale

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    Assuming the payout on that machine is in the area of 90% +, that would mean roughly ever 110 spins it would pay off, obviously it would not be that regular but one would think it would pay sooner or later. Unlike a regular machine that has a fair % of the "payout" locked up in a big prize that might come months apart.
     
  9. bardolator

    bardolator Lifelong Low Roller

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    You have just illustrated the "machine is due" fallacy, although your point about big jackpots is well taken. Another concern for regular slots players might be the lack of frequent small wins. Someone with my agenda would find them irrelevant or possibly even annoying. A full-time slots player might miss them.
     
  10. merlin

    merlin VIP Whale

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    It's not really a fallacy with a game like that, with no small or medium payouts it would have to be a 5-10% game for the house, sure it may pay off 2 or 3 times in a couple dozen hands, but it's not like a normal machine where you might sit there all day hoping for a lucky run. With almost all other machines a large % of the payout comes in the form of the rare big win that most players will never see, for example in a 99% video poker game something like 15% of the payout comes in the royal flush that you might not get even once a year. You can tell yourself that you're smart and playing a 99% game, but you better keep playing and losing until you hit that royal.
     
  11. bardolator

    bardolator Lifelong Low Roller

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    It is true that taking out the jackpot in even the best video poker game lowers the expected return to below 100 percent. Yet that point is irrelevant to the fallacy of machines being due.

    A machine is set to pay out a certain percentage. The odds for that happening remain the same for each single spin. If a player spins 300 times and gets nothing, his odds of hitting the hundred dollar payout in the next spin have not improved. Likewise, if a player hits the jackpot in the first spin, his odds of hitting one on the next spin are just the same. The machine does not calculate the memory of the last spin into the next spin. Each spin is a single trial.

    The only way that one may think correctly that the chance of winning has improved is the case of the progressive jackpot. If the jackpot gets high enough, it is actually a correct play because it has boosted the expected value from each spin to over 100%.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2015
  12. wanker751

    wanker751 Dutch Rudder Enthusiast

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    I am not sure if your numbers add up (15%)I do know that royal is a bigger part of the payout. Man that Variance is a bitch on VP!

    I was playing 8/5 BP .25 single line the other day and I lost $100 (well $115 with free play) in like 45 minutes. :thumbsdown::vomit: There have been times I played 2 hours on my original $20
     
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  13. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    The Royal Flush only represents about 1.9% of the payback. In Jacks or Better or 8/5 Bonus Poker its two pair that represents the most, a little over 25% and in both games (JoB or 8/5 BP) the pair, two pair and three of a kind together make up about 70% of the games payback.
     
  14. merlin

    merlin VIP Whale

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    Auggie is correct on the 1.9% figure, I was way off. However i dont agree that the slots in question are governed by RNG's, I believe they are run by chips which will force a certain % outcome over time, a % that can be changed. Hence if the hundred or nothing game is set at 95% it will over time spin approx 105 losers for each winner, and at a 10% house edge 110 for each win. So you cant really say that what's happened in the past has no factor on future spins, it absolutely has an effect, the chip will make sure of it, in the long run.
     
  15. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Good report!

    I'm surprised they still have "hundred or nothing" that's tough to find.

    I haven't seen a "five star poker" game with a denomination as low as nickels before. I'd definitely would like playing that!

    Nice run with the deuces!
     
  16. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    Love the green machine!
     
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