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Video Poker How stupid is this VP strategy?

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by Tree DA, Dec 28, 2015.

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  1. Tree DA

    Tree DA High-Roller

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    The way I figure it, the only reason to play VP is to get that elusive royal flush. If I'm going to throw a couple hundred in a machine and grind it out till its gone OR I hit the royal, why not play every hand for the royal. Dealt a bunch of crap plus a 10 card? Hold the 10. Dealt two 2s? Throw them away and keep the random fave or ace. Sure I'll ruin faster BUT will that be offset by having more chances at the royal?
     
  2. mrstealth

    mrstealth High-Roller

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    Well, the odds of hitting a royal flush are 1 in 43,000 or so hands. In order to get max value you need to play 5 coins, so on .25 cents it's 1.25 per hand, $1 it's $5 per hand. So, using the strategy you outlined above, at the quarter level, depending on how fast you play you will be broke in around 1-2 hours, on a $1 machine around 30 minutes.

    Good luck and please report back on your results
     
  3. gambler

    gambler VIP Whale

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    You might want to rethink that.
     
  4. alexanbo

    alexanbo High-Roller

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    If your goal is to hit a royal, you still want to play somewhat optimally because that will give you more money and more chances to hit the royal
     
  5. Corinne

    Corinne Low-Roller

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    I've often wondered about that too. Give it a go multiplay on videopoker.com, or something similar, for free and see what happens. Please let us know. May have a try myself later.
     
  6. Corinne

    Corinne Low-Roller

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    My result on videopoker.com double bonus. Started with 10,000 credits on 25 play. Held one, two or three (4 times) to any RF. Didn't play any dealt 2 pairs or 3oak. Took 12 minutes to lose it all. Might not be so bad if I'd played obvious hands like 4 to a flush etc. may try it again later holding decent first hands. I'm not sure that's the OPs original idea though.
     
  7. NickPapageorgio

    NickPapageorgio OG of the Sal Sagev Hotel

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    I'm a DDB player, that doesn't play perfect strategy. When playing TDB, I won't keep a kicker with 3 dealt Aces, as I would rather have 2 chances at the 4th ace for 800 credits and let the chips fall where they may for the kicker. This method has served me well.

    I'll always hold suited faces over a mid pair (5's - 10's)

    I'll always hold small pairs (2's - 4's) over suited faces.

    I'll always hold a hand that pays over 3 to the royal, however, i'll hold 4 to the royal over a hand that pays.

    I'll break dealt deuces- 4's full houses with the 25-30 credit downside, utilizing the logic of breaking aces full.

    I'll always hold only the ace on suited ace - 10.

    Nick:beer:
     
  8. westie

    westie VIP Whale

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    I found the following on The Wizard of Odds website:

    What would be the probability of hitting a royal flush in video poker if you always played the best strategy to do so, which would consist of always keeping 1 or more to a royal and throwing away all cards that don’t compose a royal flush? What would be the housed advantage in this situation? Just curious. Thanks.


    If your strategy were to maximize the number of royals at all costs then you would hit a royal once every 23081 hands. I assumed that given two plays of equal royal probability the player will choose the play which maximizes the return on the other hands. The house edge of this strategy on a 9/6 jacks or better game is 51.98%.
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2015
  9. dmr

    dmr Registered Abuser

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    I'm sure not an expert, but I can see immediately that will be a money pit!

    The royals are the big payday, but the smaller pays keep you going until you hit a royal.
     
  10. Grasp

    Grasp Low-Roller

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  11. grosx2

    grosx2 VIP Whale

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    This pretty much says it all. As far as the answer to the original question "how stupid is this vp strategy," pick any superlative adverb you like, toss it in front of "stupid," and there's your answer.
     
  12. JeJas

    JeJas VIP Whale

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    If that's true, then VP is not the game you want to play, any slot machine would be better than VP.
     
  13. FuzzyDiceCraps

    FuzzyDiceCraps High-Roller

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    "Least" is a superlative adverb FYI. :)

    In all seriousness though, (and I'm fairly new to VP), I see VP as a game of grinding until you hit the big wins, not a game designed exclusively for big wins. If you want big wins, there are plenty of machines in the casino that give you that opportunity - and while still at bad odds, probably better odds than playing for royals at VP.

    My sample size is small, but the only time I've gotten royals is when I wasn't playing for them....they just filled around my held card. But I've been able to play all day with minimal buy in playing conservative.
     
  14. bjpcyclone

    bjpcyclone High-Roller

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    With a HA of 51%, scratch tickets would be a better play.

    Basically if you want to maximize your play, playing optimal strategy is the only way to go.
     
  15. bardolator

    bardolator Lifelong Low Roller

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    There might be a way to increase one's chances to hit a royal while at the same time not throw out the baby. Here are two scenarios: One is playing 9/6 Jacks and gets a dealt flush including AKQ and two low cards. The projected win for holding AKQ is 6.71 coins, while keeping the flush guarantees a 30-coin return for a 5-coin wager. In that case, it would be foolish to play for the royal. Scenario 2, same hand but replace one of the rags with an offsuit queen, making a winning pair but no flush. Here, keeping the pair yields 7.68 coins, So the player is sacrificing much less to go for the royal.

    I'd hold the flush in scenario 1 and the pair in scenario 2, but I am one of the ranking RF virgins on the board.
     
  16. flyguyfl

    flyguyfl Low-Roller

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    Concur.
     
  17. merlin

    merlin VIP Whale

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    There, you have your answer, it's madness.
     
  18. Snidely

    Snidely VIP Whale

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    JOB or Dueces Wild is a grinder game but DDB or TDB have higher variance and more ways to win bigger. I usually play DDB now. My wife and I both hit 4 aces on DDB on Saturday. And about $700 total on quarter denomination on 3 hours play. So, it was a good night.

    I will switch to a more Royal focused strategy when the progressive gets up an extra 30% or more.
     
  19. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    As westie and others have pointed out, going for the Royal at the expense of EVERYTHING is a bad, bad, bad idea. However you can make moderate changes to DDB strategy without a huge penalty and moderately increase your Royal Flush chances. Details are here.

    http://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/showthread.php?127212-Is-there-a-VP-DDB-Strategy-for-Royal-Flush-vs-Optimum-Strategy&p=1253772#post1253772

    Also if someone is looking for the big win, I would suggest things like Triple Double Bonus (Aces with kicker = Royal), Super Double Double Bonus (Face cards can also be kickers), or Super Aces Bonus (All Aces = Half a Royal).
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2015
  20. adbynot

    adbynot High-Roller

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    Very, unless you are illergic to money or are bankrolled for a ROYAL or nothing adventure.
    Having played many hrs of real VP and never hitting one, even when holding the A10 combo I don't like the strategy, if you could call it that.
     
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