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How Often Do Gamblers Really Win?

Discussion in 'Casino Gaming' started by Huddler, Oct 11, 2013.

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  1. Huddler

    Huddler VIP Whale

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    The casino billboards lining America's roadways tantalize with the lure of riches. "Easy Street. It's Only a Play Away," screams one in Arizona. "$7.1 Million Every Day. We're a Payout Machine," reads another.

    But how often do gamblers really win? What are the chances that a gambler will win on a single day or over a longer period? Don't bother to ask the casinos. Although they gather vast quantities of data about their customers for marketing purposes, including win and loss tallies for many regulars, casinos keep such information a closely-guarded secret.

    Now, thanks to an unprecedented trove of public data detailing the behavior of thousands of Internet gamblers over a two-year period, The Wall Street Journal can provide some answers.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304626104579123383535635644.html?mod=djemTEW_h
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 11, 2013
  2. wigwam_salesman

    wigwam_salesman VIP Whale

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    Bottom line: If we won more often than they lost then there would be no casinos.
     
  3. MikeOPensacola

    MikeOPensacola VIP Whale

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    In the short run, anything can happen. People win all the time, but in the end the casinos win because they are open 24/7/365 and have a built in house edge and a huge bankroll to sustain short term losses.:peace:
     
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  4. LV_Bound

    LV_Bound VIP Whale

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    Winning per session or per trip????

    Lots of winning sessions. Not many winning trips.
     
  5. casinoboy

    casinoboy Low-Roller

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    they say 10% of the gamblers gave the casino 90% of there winnings. that means 90% of the gamblers are useless to the casino. but they still get comps. i dont think that only 10% of gamblers get comps because that means only 10% of rooms are comped. i dont believe that 90% of rooms are paid for like normal.
     
  6. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    Not often enough.
     
  7. wrxrob

    wrxrob High-Roller

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    the casino doesn't beat the big players.. the big players beat themselves.

    I can't count how many times I turned a small profit into a big loss :grrr: , and I'm a comparable low roller

    (i.e. 2 hours in, I'm up $50.... 4 hours in, I'm down $400)

    chasing losses can work sometimes.. chasing wins is worse because it all goes back eventually.
     
  8. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    I think that's a little exaggerated, but not by a lot. This article suggests that ~10% of gamblers drive ~60% of revenue. https://www.citizenlink.com/2010/06/14/frequently-asked-questions-gambling-in-the-united-states/

    Also, most of the comps are also being earned by that 10%. If you look at a random weekday in non-Vegas casinos, a good proportion of the people currently there are part of this 10% faction. On the weekends, not as much...
     
  9. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Good article Huddler, thanks for posting it! Have any stats nerds with SAS or SPSS downloaded the data files from the study to play around with it yet? There are a bunch of things I'd like to check out.

    You're confused, that refers to 10% of distinct gamblers amongst all of the gamblers over that 2 year period, not 10% of gamblers in the casino on any given day. If you went in just once and gambled $20 you are in that group of all gamblers. The 10% that are the biggest contributors may also represent, for example, 50% of total gamblers in the casino on an average day. They're the regulars.

    Everyone on this board probably knows this, but it gets so easily ignored sometimes when talking about worsening odds. Sure the extra 1.5% or whatever may not sound like a lot, and may translate into only a few bucks per hour at low limits, etc. But what if you think about it as losing four or five times as much money over time? Its not so easy to dismiss when you think of the cumulative effect.
     
  10. casinoboy

    casinoboy Low-Roller

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    thanks that makes sense :thumbsup: i thought they meant 10% of the people in the casino. i know what you mean about regulars. i see some of the same people every time i go to tunica. just like im going to do today so im one of those regulars too!:beer:
     
  11. sco5123

    sco5123 VIP Whale

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    Clearly, this is my favorite line.

    "The lightest gamblers—the 10% of customers who placed the fewest wagers over the two years—also had the highest winning percentage."
     
  12. earth-3

    earth-3 High-Roller

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    Yet the casino won 83% of the time even against them. But it does go to show how much Macau is hurting Las Vegas. The overseas "Whales" are not coming over stateside like they have in the past. I guess this is the crux of why marketing feels the gambler is now in second place in their revenue stream.
     
  13. dmr

    dmr Registered Abuser

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    I can definitely believe this! I'm a mega low roller and I sure won today at a local casino. Came out about $5 ahead! I was tickled pink over it! :)
     
  14. Dean Martin

    Dean Martin VIP Whale

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    I'm sure a lot of you saw the Steve Wynn interview a few years back. The interviewer asked something like "how did he feel about someone hitting a big jackpot or table win in his casino's?"

    Steve said he loved it. He went on to say "all that does it get people to gamble more when the see somebody hit big and "all" the games in my casino's have a house advantage so in the long run.....I always win".

    Pretty much sums it up and everybody already knows this but.....we all still want to take that gambling chance and be one of the few that walk away up. If we have the brains to walk when we're up that is....:poke:
     
  15. dewey089

    dewey089 Guru of Value

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    Those commenting on the affect of comps seem to have the "rest of the story." When I count money put at risk over time I am behind. But when I count the full value of a trip to Vegas or any place where I have comps, I come out fine. My bankroll is always the difference between what it would cost me to take a similar vacation and what Vegas costs me. Of course, I go on the dirt cheap. However, even the upgraded high priced rooms in Vegas or the expensive restaurants come out much cheaper than they would in most other vacation places. And entertainment dollars for shows, live music, etc go a long, long way.

    Jean Scott always argued that if we could get the gambling to a near break even place, and add in the freebies, we came out well ahead.

    That being said this article is a good argument for advantaged play and for not playing unless some decent comp can be figured into the mathematics.
     
  16. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    From a math perspective, this will tend to be true with any negative expectation game. The longer you play, the more opportunity the house edge will grind you down.
     
  17. AlwaysVegas

    AlwaysVegas Low-Roller

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    I've had several fellow gamblers tell me over the years, "Oh, I always win at the casinos," so I always ask them, "Then why do you still work?"

    The story always changes then. :thumbsup:
     
  18. Electroguy563

    Electroguy563 Over-Fried Gambler

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    Hit and run, baby, hit and run...except it's easier said than done. I tend to stay longer than I should. I need to leave earlier if I could.

    Wow.. all of that sh*t rhymed...lol! :evillaugh:beer::thumbsup:
     
    Going to Hawaii's 9th Island!!
    Going to Hawaii's 9th island!!
  19. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    I know a guy who swears he's up lifetime at every casino group. not just one, every casino group he's ever been to. he talks all about his 300k hit here and 150k hit here and 600k hit there. however, I've played with him a few times and never seen him win. not once. but even worse than that, my other buddy has played with him dozens of times and also has never seen him win. not once. I mean doesn't even the worst gambler ever have to win occasionally? and who are you fooling trying to convince people that you're up lifetime everywhere?
     
  20. Tree DA

    Tree DA High-Roller

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    Himself?
     
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