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Table Games How much/long does one need to play BJ for that 2% to take effect?

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by TwiceTheJava, Apr 3, 2014.

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  1. TwiceTheJava

    TwiceTheJava Low-Roller

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    So as I understand things, playing BJ for an hour with basic strategy and a $300 bankroll means I should expect to lose $6, due to the 2% casino edge. Do I have that right?

    The reality is, I walk up with $100 and five minutes of BJ later the casino has my $100. So how many hands do I need to play to reach that 48% win rate, because for me, if I play any game, sooner or later I've lost all my money and house edge against me is seems like 100%.

    It's more curiosity than anything. I'm not a big BJ player and prefer to donate my money to the casino slowly while playing big six (I know, I know, please don't hate me) at a party pit. :drunk:

    Oh yeah, first post. Hi everybody! :wave: Heading to The Flamingo in May!
     
  2. 2VegasNuts

    2VegasNuts High-Roller

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    Welcome to the board! Not much to add on your post except that each hand is an individual event so my guess on # of hands is 1. At the same time, the answer may well be infinity. You are also going to get lots of opinions on the 2% number, but that is not your question :)
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2014
  3. numeno

    numeno VIP Whale

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    Complete guess here, but I'm thinking $10k on a $5 table would be good. That would be ~2000 hours.



    Most people will never play enough to actually see the law of large numbers work out for them. The closest I think you can come would be Video Poker since playing a million hands per year is actually attainable.
     
  4. TwiceTheJava

    TwiceTheJava Low-Roller

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    Thanks for the replies! I don't think I'm going to go chasing the law of averages; I'll stick to cigars, drinking, and eye candy at the money wheel.
     
  5. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    No, you don't quite have it right.

    House edge is not against your bankroll. It is against the total amount wagered. (average bet times number of bets). So if you sit with a $300 bankroll for an hour playing $10 a hand, and you get 100 hands in, you've wagered $1000, so would be expected to have lost $20 if the house edge is 2%. This also assumes you play perfectly.

    And what you are talking about is variance. Not much to tell you there without diving deeper into math world other than the more hands you play, the more your losses will approach that 2% on the total amount you wagered. Of course since the more hands you play, the more you've bet, that isn't helpful.

    In fact, many casual players would consider variance a good thing. It is what lets you sit for 20 minutes, get on a hot streak, and walk away with a decent win. If you always hit the house edge, you'd always lose and no one would play.

    It sounds like you also have a risk of ruin issue. If you are buying into a $10 table with $100, for example, you can only afford to be down 10 or so bets, so if you lose 10 in a row it doesn't matter that you "would have" won the next 12, you're already busted.

    Risk of ruin does nothing to your long run expectation, but it does skew your session results. If your buy in is very small relative to your bet, your most common outcome by far will be losing it all. The way you get back to your expected value is that those are all small losing sessions, so when you get one big winning sessions it balances things.

    Someone with a BIG bankroll relative to their bet will tend to have more balanced sessions (assuming they don't play for too long at a time). They will walk away a small winner WAY more often than you, and also with small losses that aren't their entire bankroll. And they will win big as or more often then you. But they have the same lifetime expectation because they will also lose that massive bankroll now and then.
     
  6. TwiceTheJava

    TwiceTheJava Low-Roller

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    I don't see an up vote button so I'll just say thanks Nevyn, that makes sense!
     
  7. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Another thing to add is that the 48% win rate refers to each hand, not your sessions or trips or anything else. Your probability of winning overall is a function of how many hands you play and approaches zero over time (i.e. it should converge to your theoretical loss with greater and greater probability).

    If you want an idea of the expected number of hands you can calculate confidence intervals. I think all the stats for BJ are available but I'm not sure about the distribution. Hopefully someone will do it, my head is tired and its finally spring outside.
     
  8. johnvic

    johnvic VIP Whale

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    I think it does need to be said that the house advantage for 6 deck, dealer Hits 17 paying 3:2 on a natural is around .6%, if there is no doubling after splits it's > .7%.

    If they pay 6:5 on a natural then you're close to 2%.
     
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  9. hail2skins

    hail2skins Low-Roller

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    You simply need to learn basic strategy (which you indicated you do), go downtown to play cheap blackjack tables, and have an adequate bankroll.

    Sorry, but the Big Six wheel has a house edge of in excess of 10 percent and up to over 20 percent. You won't stand a chance if you play for any duration.

    Another game to consider learning is craps. The basic bets (pass line) are some of the best in the casino, and a decision on your bet isn't necessarily made on every roll.
     
  10. elrohir44

    elrohir44 Low-Roller

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    If you are playing a BJ game with a minimum edge of 2% you are doing it wrong. This means you are playing on the rip-off 6-5 tables, meaning they short you when you hit a blackjack.

    Avoid these tables at all costs. This rule change will cost you an extra ~$15/hr when betting $10 per hand (you are being shorted $3 on each BJ, and getting 5 bjs/hr on average). Remember that this is ON TOP of what you would be losing playing normal BJ.

    Do every other gambler a favor and please stay away from these tables, and out of casinos that offer it if possible. It is easy to tell when you come across one of these games- just look at the felt or the game display. Casinos are required to warn you about this rule change at the table.
     
  11. TwiceTheJava

    TwiceTheJava Low-Roller

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    I think Big Six might actually be even worse than that, lol. I play it purely for fun and atmosphere with no intention of making money, just lose it slowly. I do plays craps as well. Passline, a few come bets with odds, now you're talking!
     
  12. vsop

    vsop Low-Roller

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    2%

    :nono::nono: Java, you just experienced the nuances of statistics....as mentioned by a few of the posters, it would take more time and $$$ (like infinite quantities) to approached that 2% result....your best bet is to know the game/strategies and manage the amount/size of your bets.
     
  13. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    This is why many people experience a 100% loss.

    Millions of people wish they only had a 2% loss !!!!
     
  14. DonnyC

    DonnyC VIP Whale

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    Then what you are asking the OP is to not play BJ...or to play more per bet...or know where to find $5 and $10 BJ 3:2 tables - could you suggest for the OP where to find those? :peace:
     
  15. MikeOPensacola

    MikeOPensacola VIP Whale

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    Plenty of 3:2 $5 BJ downtown with some pretty good rules. For the low roller downtown is a great place to play BJ, certainly better than CET properties on the strip.

    :peace: :beer:
     
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  16. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    Ha! Join the club brutha!!!! :wave:

    Great 1st post!!! WELCOME!!!
     
  17. DoubleUp

    DoubleUp Low-Roller

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    One way to think of it is that you pay that house edge on every bet you win. Consider a game with a 1% house edge. If you bet $10 and lose, well then you lost. If you bet $10 and win $10, you were underpaid, because if you were paid the true fair odds for a game with a 1% you should have been paid $10.20 ! This is how the house makes money, they take $10, but short you on the payout.

    Hey, they have to keep the lights on somehow!
     
  18. owenstar

    owenstar Tourist

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    Please tell me where I can get five BJ an hour hahahaha. I have gone all night without one.
     
  19. johnvic

    johnvic VIP Whale

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    I think MGM still has 3:2 BJ.

    When I was at the Mirage last year they had a mixture of low limit BJ tables. I definitely played 3:2 for $10.
     
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  20. blissfulignoramus

    blissfulignoramus Low-Roller

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    The Wizard of Vegas Blackjack Survey only lists true 3:2 blackjack games -- as you can see, there are many on the Strip, including in the $10 minimum range. The survey confirms my limited experience over the last couple of years that you can find decent (<0.5% house advantage) at a number of places on the Strip, including MGM Grand, NY NY, TI, Mirage and Bellagio. Not as good as downtown for low-stakes games, but not bad. It also appears that as a rule you can pretty much assume the odds are worse at CET properties.

    Note that when casinos get busy, minimums go up, so expect it to be harder to find a seat at a good low stakes table on the Strip on weekends.
     
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