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Table Games House advantage of Don't Pass vs Pass

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by patroyal2014, Jun 29, 2015.

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  1. patroyal2014

    patroyal2014 Tourist

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    I am looking at the wizard of odds page on house advantage of pass vs don't pass.
    pass: 1.41% HA
    don't pass 1.36% HA

    Why is the Don't pass HA at 1.36%??? Anyone think that's unrealistic? Especially during the come out roll, when 7 / 11 rolls, it's very bad for the don't pass.
     
  2. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    I think that also takes into account the "pushes" on 12 (or Reno, 2).
    Also, once you get passed the come-out roll, you have a HUGE advantage.
     
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  3. rddoria

    rddoria Tourist

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    Wizard of Odds is the authority on this kind of stuff and are rarely wrong. Remember, once you get past the come out roll, 7 is your friend! I still don't play the don't pass because it's generally no fun as you're usually playing opposite of everyone at the table. Most people who play the don'ts, do so for attention :ssst:
     
  4. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Well, the probability of a 12 on the come-out roll is 1/36 = 2.777777778%, and this is the only result that doesn't carry opposite consequences between pass and don't pass.

    The house edge on the pass is 7/495 = 1.4141414%

    The house edge on the don't pass is 3/220 = 1.363636%

    Sum up the two house edges and you get...

    1/36 = 2.777777778%

    This isn't a coincidence.

    As others have said, making a point number isn't easy! Point numbers are only converted 40.6% of the time in the long run, so the don't bettor has a huge edge if a point is established.

    For extra gory detail on how to calculate pass and don't pass house edge, look here.
    http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/
     
  5. Piggylane

    Piggylane Well-Known Member

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    Most of the smart wrong bettors just play quietly and don't draw attention to themselves. I usually play wrong, am on and off a table for just two or three hands and never try to draw attention to myself. It's not me against you anyway. It's me against the casino. It's their money I'm winning, not yours.
     
  6. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    And most people who avoid playing the Don't Pass have been bullied or brainwashed into giving up the best bet on the craps table.
    They would rather accept an inferior bet than risk upsetting the majority.
     
  7. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    This is the correct answer.

    And yet, all of those people that continually berate others for making silly hardways bets because they have a higher HA are the same people that make silly passline bets instead of don't pass bets.

    No one feels silly when they walk away a big winner.
     
  8. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    It's 0.05%...that's not worth upsetting anyone over for the amount I play this game (hardly ever), imo. And at least for me, craps is more fun with the group goal. If everyone bet the don't, I'd bet the don't too. Now if the don't pass would have a 1% edge instead, yeah, I'm betting the don't.
     
  9. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    Actually, if you compare Pass line with full 3-4-5 odds (0.374% HA) to Don't Pass with full 3-4-5 odds (0.273% HA), the absolute difference is 0.1% in favor of Don't Pass, and the relative difference is a whopping 27% in favor of Don't Pass (0.1 divided by 0.374 = 0.27 or 27%).
    So you are giving up a relative 27% better bet by playing Pass with full odds instead of Don't Pass with full odds.
     
  10. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    You're laying more odds though on the don't (up to 6X of the initial don't pass wager) in the 3-4-5 setup, which is the reason the expected loss vs. the total bet (aka house edge) goes down further. Your expected loss per pass/don't pass bet (more important than relative house edge to me) is still only the 0.05% difference. If you bet $10 on the pass, you're expected to lose 14.1414 cents vs. 13.63636 cents for $10 on the don't pass. Placing odds on either bet, you lose zero longterm, it just adds variance. To me (because I'll never bet more than $10 per pass bet), I'm not going to buck the table over a penny per two pass bets.

    Now if you're playing at a property where they include odds bets in your rating (casinos are stupid to do this, imo), then yeah, betting the don't on a 3-4-5 table is a very smart play that I would recommend.
     
  11. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    That's why Packer loves playing at the Wynn, they rate his odds bet for comp purposes.
     
  12. progrocker2112

    progrocker2112 Low-Roller

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    Doesn't your bankroll need to be a lot higher if you're going to lay rather than take full odds though, especially if you play at 5x, 10x, 20x, etc. places?
     
  13. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    I usually have 100 to 200 units as my bankroll. So if I am betting $100 Pass or Don't, I'll have at least $10K on the rails to start.
     
  14. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    In terms of RoR, it's pretty close between the two if you have 100 pass/don't pass bets available for max 5X odds. I think any discrepancy in the numbers can be due to sampling error. The bets are polar opposites of each other and should lead to similar results.

    After 10k simulations of 500 points (or going broke, whichever comes first), this is what your bankroll for odds looks like. Double stake = 100 unit win or more...Triple = 200 or more...Quintuple = 400 win or more.

    Pass:
    Sim. Ruin% 45.530000
    Sim. Win % 42.750000
    Sim. Double Stake % 21.670000
    Sim. Triple Stake % 6.720000
    Sim. Quintuple Stake % 0.170000

    $`Win/Loss Summary`
    Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
    -104.5000 -101.5000 -43.0000 -0.8935 82.0000 537.0000

    $`Summary of number of points played on stake`
    Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
    23.0 213.0 500.0 371.5 500.0 500.0

    ________________________________________________________________

    Don't Pass when laying max 5X odds (i.e. 10X on 4 and 10, 7.5X on 5 and 9, and 6X on 6 and 8)

    Sim. Ruin% 45.690000
    Sim. Win % 42.600000
    Sim. Double Stake % 21.340000
    Sim. Triple Stake % 6.570000
    Sim. Quintuple Stake % 0.110000

    $`Win/Loss Summary`
    Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
    -109.500 -102.000 -41.500 -2.395 82.000 497.000

    $`Summary of number of points played on stake`
    Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
    17.0 214.0 500.0 371.9 500.0 500.0
     
  15. Roccoscollar

    Roccoscollar Low-Roller

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    This! I play the don't pass (as well as the pass) and at some tables it's not worth it for the amount of crap you have to take. And i NEVER antagonize my fellow players.
     
  16. LV_Bound

    LV_Bound VIP Whale

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    Playing the pass line can be like a party atmosphere especially on a very hot table.
    I am not interested in giving that up just for .05 percent advantage.
    For how little I get to Vegas, a .05 difference isn't even a factor.
    Oh, don't feel sorry for those Don't betters as some of them can be just as harsh at a table toward the Pass players.

    Can't we all just get along.
    Its Vegas Lets have some fun!!!!
     
  17. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    Then stop harassing Don't bettors.
     
  18. Packer

    Packer VIP Whale

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    GEEZERS and all cet rate odds and every other bet on the table. Doey/don't too.. Everything. I play doey/don't to get by the first roll then pound the 6x odds on the don't when there is a roll of PSO's.. Wynn also rates my doey/don't Not the odds. The reason I bet 2000/1700 is so I can put up to 12000 in odds from time to time. Yes, they allow me to do that. They would be nutts not to.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2015
  19. LV_Bound

    LV_Bound VIP Whale

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    ???????????
     
  20. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    Sorry, I wasn't as clear as I wanted to be.

    In response to LVBound's question "Can't we all just get along?", I meant to write:
    Then get the Pass line bettors to stop harassing the Don't players.
     
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