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Hot streaks are real - article

Discussion in 'Casino Gaming' started by bedaniels, May 16, 2014.

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  1. bedaniels

    bedaniels Low-Roller

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    "A fascinating new study on online gambling published in this month's issue of Cognition comes to an unexpected conclusion: winning a bet does, seemingly, make you more likely to win your next one. The researchers looked at 565,915 wagers placed by 776 online gamblers in Europe and the U.S., and found that the gamblers had a 48 percent chance to win on average...."

    http://regressing.deadspin.com/gambling-hot-streaks-are-actually-real-1577514961
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 16, 2014
  2. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    If you read the whole article, the hot streak tends to occur because they make less-riskier bets as the streak increases. So this proves nothing about what most people define as a "hot streak".

    But it's an interesting article of sports bettors' typical betting patterns. Mainly that they are loss chasers by increasing their bet odds on a losing streak and like to lock up wins by lowering bet odds on a winning streak, particularly the non-US group of gamblers.
     
  3. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    "eat like a bird, shit like an elephant"--Steve Cyr
     
  4. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    Classic line in a great book!
    In a LOT of games, gamblers have a 48% chance to win their next bet! lol
     
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  5. MikeOPensacola

    MikeOPensacola VIP Whale

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    I thought it was moose instead of elephant...

    :peace: :beer:
     
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  6. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Exactly. This is a good example of why its important to read the content and not just the headline. Its not a hot streak, its people becoming more and more risk averse and trying to protect their wins.

    Its an interesting finding though in terms of the psychology of gamblers and how you can manifest your own beliefs about running hot or cold. It is similar with investing. But I don't know how much of their findings really apply to most table games players because they are looking as wins/losses as a binary event, not in terms of EV. Some of the bigger table games don't even have bets with different odds.
     
  7. bedaniels

    bedaniels Low-Roller

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    In some respects the data in the article supports my gambling style, press every other win on hot streaks but don't chase and press losses. Seems to work out for me.
     
  8. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    How so? Neither the article nor the data support that at all. It's not even about that. The deadspin title is just misleading.
     
  9. Snidely

    Snidely VIP Whale

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    Flipping a fair coin heads and tails will result in streaks of tails and streaks of heads.

    The data in the article is misinterpreted by deadspin. The article is really about why people have winning and losing streaks that are more "streaky" than would be expected from a simple coin flip streak.

    As Cry states, gamblers tend to bet more when they're in the midst of a losing streak but bet less when they're winning.

    The data doesn't support a styel of gambling. It just observes the data and looks to explain a factor why the casinos take in more than their expected house advantage. People tend to win small or lose big.
     
  10. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    This isn't what the paper is about either. A coin toss is a bad analogy for what they're talking about because it has constant odds, they are talking about specifically about bets where the odds vary. They use a coin-toss to illustrate what the gamblers fallacy means. But the paper finds that gamblers choose safer and safer bets when they are winning (i.e. better odds), therefore have a higher likelihood to win again, and believe they are on a streak. Whereas a losing gambler chooses riskier bets (i.e. worse odds).

    As tringlomane posted earlier, sports betting is a more appropriate analogy and fits with the examples the authors of the paper provided. In their data they found the mean odds chosen went from 7.72, to 6.19 after one win, to 3.60 after two consecutive wins. Whereas losers will do the opposite, wager on riskier bets.

    Nonetheless, this is a binary W/L. At the end they found in terms of EV both those with winning streaks and those without did the same.

    For casino gambling you can look at it on a game like roulette. Where they are saying a guy that wins a number straight up is more likely to place a bet with a higher probability of winning afterwards, e.g. an entire column, then after that win, something even safer, e.g. red or black. It has nothing to do with bet size or EV or why the casinos take in more than their expected house advantage (or if that's even true or not).
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2014
  11. MikeOPensacola

    MikeOPensacola VIP Whale

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    Streaks undeniably happen. It has always amazed me the number of gamers that chase their losses and get too conservative when winning. It seems to be that the better course would be to go for big wins with minimal losses by being conservative while losing and be more aggressive when winning. While not a sure fire lock it seems to be an infinitely better strategy than to throw away good money after bad......

    :peace: :beer:
     
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  12. dewey089

    dewey089 Guru of Value

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    That caught me too. I was thinking that for the most part I avoid making bets where the math indicates I'll win just 48% of my moneyunless the comps overcome the house advantage.

    But perhaps that 48% is not about how much is won but how many of the bets are won, including bets that don't pay even. However, if gamblers make "safer bets" that are more likely to win, perhaps they don't get paid much at all, like betting the favorites at a track to show. You could win a huge percentage of those bets but come out in the end down money. It could be that a "hot streak" leaves the gambler with less money.
     
  13. Terry Benedict

    Terry Benedict VIP Whale

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    I just think it was a poorly written article. If this group is arguing about what the study and the results of the study were, it is a poorly written article.
     
  14. jdvegas

    jdvegas VIP Whale

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    Oh yeah - streaks happen!! This past weekend is my proof!!! :woohoo:

    ...And I can tell you for sure, the more I won, the riskier I got :woot:

    [disclaimer: I did not even look at the article! :wink2:]
     
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