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Horse Race Freeplay - Looking For Strategies

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by jasonargo, Apr 25, 2013.

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  1. jasonargo

    jasonargo High-Roller

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    Not strictly Vegas, but I was lucky enough to win $500 in betting dollars good only on Kentucky Derby day, and will get to keep the winnings. Lady friend & I will be primarily betting the card at Churchill Downs that day.

    I'm normally a 3 or 4-horse exacta box bettor, trying to get a live long shot in the mix for nice payoffs, but I'm thinking that using free dollars might mean looking at some alternative strategies. I'm not a consistent winner, but I have had my moments of fairly large exacta payoffs ($200-300).

    The Derby itself is usually good for some big exotic payouts, and it might be worth concentrating the play on that one race. There are also usually a half dozen other good stakes races to play that day as well.

    Horseplayers - any thoughts? Thanks for your input.

    -
     
  2. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

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    Alot of times people are just trying to turn their free play into actual cash. If this was the case with you, you would just look for a deserving favorite and bet to show. you wont make anything on the bet but you would win the bet so the free play would be cash.
    It sounds like you plan on playing the free play like real money so my advice there is to play it like it was real money and do what you normally do.
     
  3. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    I agree with may24, just bet like you normally would and you're in a no lose situation. Good luck to you.
     
  4. Rhinestone Cowboy

    Rhinestone Cowboy Low-Roller

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    I've always wanted to do an ALL/ALL exacta box for the derby. Like it has been said, if you are a horse player, just bet the money as normal.
     
  5. kitson

    kitson VIP Whale

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    let us know as you go along what you are considering, this will be fun for us, too! how many times have we all handicapped our asses off, and then watched, for instance, the number 3 horse be in the money all race card long, or watched a random jockey pull a four win day out. yet, when we bet on something like that, does not pan out.

    with "free money" you could hedge your handicapping bets with a random play like above, or exacta boxing the 4/all every race, or almost anything you can come up with. you have a week to experiment with whatever you might come up with, and with the internet could easily track the paper results, though i realize derby day, with larger than usual fields in better quality races, is much different than the run of the mill race card.

    what is your inclination, spread it among 4 or 5 races, or bet it all on the derby?
     
  6. runningonthehub

    runningonthehub Low-Roller

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    How much would a ALL/ALL exacta box bet cost if there are 20 horses in the race.?
     
  7. emmada

    emmada Tourist

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    All costs are based on using a $1.00 minimum wager amount

    Exacta Box
    2 horse box - $2
    3 horse box - $6
    4 horse box - $12
    5 horse box - $20
    6 horse box - $30
    7 horse box - $42
    8 horse box - $56

    20 horse box - 380$
     
  8. Viva Las Vegas

    Viva Las Vegas Ramblin' Gamblin' Man

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    There are too many unpredictable factors in such a large field to have confidence in cashing and profiting from a gimmick (boxing all / many combos),

    If this was my money, I would look up Andrew Beyer's pick, and if you like the horse, bet $150 across and perhaps key it first / second with a few horses for a gimmick bet. He's pretty solid and spends a good deal of time working on the derby.
     
  9. volfaninbama

    volfaninbama High-Roller

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    I think if it was me I would do all derby
    Bests do a 20 horse exacta box. Then use the
    Remainder for Trifectas or superfectas box
    With horses you like. My horses are Orb, Overanylze,
    Itsmyluckyday, Will Take Charge with longer shots
    Black Onyx, Oxnow and Falling Sky.
    Good luck let us know what you end up betting
    And how it turns out.
     
  10. klevegas

    klevegas Low-Roller

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    Hi. If you come up with one or two key horses, I would do an exacta wheel keying on those horses - i.e. orb and will take charge w/all exacta and all w/ orb and will take charge exacta. I think that is only $76 for $1.00 exacta so get a few top picks and play that way. If I find a horse I am that strong on I plan on doing that but probably higher bet.

    Good luck! Was that the contest on twinspires this month?
     
  11. runningonthehub

    runningonthehub Low-Roller

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    Betting $380.00, how likely is it to cover your loses in the Derby? Seems you would need the top 4 or 5 favorites to finish out of the money. Does not seems to be a very good use of the bankroll.
    If the two favorites finish 1-2 and only pay, $18.00, seems like a waste. Am I missing something?
     
  12. Dobber2320

    Dobber2320 Tourist

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    In a 20 horse field like the derby there is no way that the exacta could ever pay $18 - there are too many people and too large of a handle on races like that.

    I would play the $$ before the derby as with 20 horses the best horse does not usually win the race.

    $10 tri boxes and $20 3 horse exacta boxes would be my bet of choice.

    Back in 2008 when Big Brown won and paid $6.80 the $2 exacta still paid $141.60
     
  13. runningonthehub

    runningonthehub Low-Roller

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    The $18 payout was just a number used for example. In 2008, the $1 exacta paid $70.80. Is that a good return for an investment of $380.00? That was my point.
     
  14. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

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    Boxing the 20 horses is probably not a good idea, but the only time that it would gain a bit more reasonableness is if there is lots of rain and derby is run on an off track. more likely to get an upset.
     
  15. Rush

    Rush High-Roller

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    If it doesn't pay better than 400/1, you are in trouble.
     
  16. chitownjohn

    chitownjohn High-Roller

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    I would do something like this;

    6 horse $1 tri box for $120
    10 horse $2 exacta box - $180
    $50 WP on your top 2 - $200
     
  17. Pizzaman

    Pizzaman Low-Roller

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    I would look into playing 50 cent, or $1 Tri box. As history shows, it will pay a ton. Good Luck whatever you do.:wave:
     
  18. h_upmann

    h_upmann Low-Roller

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    I have the utmost respect for Andy Beyer, but his Derby picks have never run too well.
    To quote the man himself the Derby yields some "inscrutable" results. I always like to see him pick my horse, though.
    :cheers:
     
  19. jasonargo

    jasonargo High-Roller

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    Thank you everyone for your thoughts. I haven't made my mind up, but I now have more ideas to consider.

    I thought about the all-on-the-favorite-to-show idea - for about 30 seconds. Not that it's a bad idea, but there have been plenty of cases where the "sure thing" has decided to not show up in a race, so I'm planning at least to spread the bets around over the course of the day.

    Right now I'm leaning towards playing my usual style during the early races, perhaps upping to $4 vs $2 exacta boxes. Unless I get on a bad streak, I shouldn't lose more than a couple hundred bucks. Then I can use the last $300 playing exacta & trifecta combos in the Derby. A decent trifecta should pay at least $1000, wouldn't you think?

    (Last year's exacta was $306.60 & the tri was $1532.80. The year before was $329.80 & $3952.40. Based on $2 bet.)

    I'm going to avoid the superfecta only because it takes way too many combinations. I think the money would be better spent with more tri combos.

    Using a formula I found online, a tri part-wheel with 5 on top of 7 on top of 10 would be $240 for $1 bet.

    A 6-horse exacta box for $2 would be $60.

    $2 to win on 10 horses (8:1 or higher odds) would be $20.

    Of course I coud still lose it all, but hey - it's horse racing, right?

    Not a final decision yet, and depending if I hit something decent during the undercard who knows what weird options might go through my head on race day.

    -
     
  20. Rhinestone Cowboy

    Rhinestone Cowboy Low-Roller

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    The ALL/ALL would have broken even or slightly ahead, but I certainly wasn't advocating that it was a sound bet to make. The reason I shy away from picking 6/7 horse exactas in the derby is the frequency that a long shot (hello Golden Soul!) come up into 2nd/3rd. Thinking more about it for next year I may try to pick a horse or 2 I really like and key him in 1st and 2nd on the $1 exacta for $38 per horse.
     
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