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Slots HI LIMIT Slot/Jackpot question?

Discussion in 'Slots' started by JaxxLV, Oct 1, 2014.

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  1. JaxxLV

    JaxxLV Tourist

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    If there was a record of how many jackpots were hit on a particular machine or series of machines over a time frame of 3 months and there were other machines that had hit less frequently that were the exact same type, denom, etc.

    Would you play the machines that had not had as many JP won?

    or

    Would you play the machines that had paid out significantly more?

    Why?
     
  2. Piggylane

    Piggylane Well-Known Member

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    No. Law of independent trials tells us that if something happened before, and what causes it it a random event, it's past history is meaningless on predicting future results.

    The random number generator is constantly generating solutions whether there is anyone at the slot or not. The outcome is determined the moment a bet is accepted. The RNG's are supposedly rigorously tested and are regulated.

    That being said luck can be on your side. I doubt there are any readers here who haven't had many days where they couldn't hit the floor if they tripped. Likewise we've all had days where it seems, at least for a short period, we can't lose! I had four royals at the Orleans in about three hours once. $7000 made me happy! Playing quarters and halves. Long drought after that. It's called variance.

    Lots of math discussion on probabilities, statistics but much of it is interjected with opinion and urban legend. Even me, a Physicist falls prey to urges and feelings at the craps table.

    Be there at the right time and you win! Good luck!
     
  3. broncofn

    broncofn VIP Whale

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    In my mind, and i hardly play slots but it wouldnt matter because of the RNG. If you like a specific slot, just play it and hope for the best.
     
  4. VegasChic-

    VegasChic- VIP Whale

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    I'm a slot player, and I almost always lose, lol....

    I tend to go to slot machines that show no wins having just paid, if I walk up to a machine and it just cashed out $600, I tend to walk on to another.

    HOWEVER, on another board there was a slot floor manager of a casino that would offer input. What's interesting is that he said although the slots may be set at a payback of say, 91%, its over the lifetime of the slot. He said that it's very common for slots on the floor to register in a 24 hour/48 hour/72 hour time frame an actual 5% payback, or conversely a 300% payback. Because the lifetime play of a slot is so long, the 1-3 days is so short, many machines aren't anywhere close to the 91% number in that timeframe. Three days is usually the timeframe I go on my trips.

    So, because I always lose, I'm wondering if I should play the ones that seem to be paying currently as maybe there really is more to be paid still in that small timeframe. I'll likely still lose, but would be interesting to see if there's any difference!
     
  5. justo

    justo Tourist

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    Is this true for all modern Vegas casinos? I guess since they all accept a player's card even the older lever operated games from 80s(?) and 90s and have been retrofitted with some sort of internal cpu this is possible, it just sounds counter intuitive that a truly random number generation would need to be continuously working vs laying idle between bets.
     
  6. Piggylane

    Piggylane Well-Known Member

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    No it's true. There is no idle time. The players card system is independent of the system generating the results and has to be by law.

    The goofy kid down the street who went to school with my daughter and got a full boat scholarship from my alma mater, Worcester Polytechnic Intitute, one of the best engineering scools in the USA, in Mathematics now works for one of the big slot manufacturers. I cannot name them. Ran into the kid while picking apples a couple years ago. He can't gamble of course. He confirmed what many have said and as I've stated here: the RNG generates solutions continuously. The clock speed is different based on the age of the machine and processor. The overall payouts are determine by an algorithm, he is one of those who programs them. The variance is determined by luck but is well known. By the manufacturer. Maybe by the casino...

    Over a three day period a 5% payback is certainly believable and expected. Two jackpots in one hour is also expected. Over the life of a machine they would both be noise.

    Look up the 2013 UNLV report on Nevada gaming win. Casinos won about 6 percent from dollar slots and 11 percent from pennies. As expected. On any given day at Bellagio you'll find some luck stiff getting a $10K payout from a dollar machine, or more. Go back several more days and watch that machine eat Benjamin's. Over a year it pays out 94% of what goes in. And it does so no matter how drunk the person is!
     
  7. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    If you were the only one who had the information, I'd go for the machine that paid out more frequently in your sample, on the remote possibility that there was something wrong with it.
     
  8. jackincols

    jackincols Guest

    Interesting discourse on this thread. Piggylane, do you know if the same holds true (continual RNG) for VP machines? On a VP machine when does the RNG "lock in"? When you press draw? Lastly, does the RNG start up again after you've held a pair (or whatever) until you hit the draw button again?
     
  9. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    Lions share hit for $2m in the past month. You think it will hit again soon?

    LOL!

    Statistically, it could.
     
  10. jh46

    jh46 Low-Roller

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    No, since it is now residing in the winner's home, lol
     
  11. Aaron5

    Aaron5 Low-Roller

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    I look for machines that show a payout.

    Most of the time I am playing 2 or 3 coin $5 machines.

    I have hit multiple 5k jackpots on Blazing 7’s and Quick Hits machines just a few spins apart.

    I hit 25k on a Double Red White & Blue machine after a woman played 3 spins and cashed out $400 on mixed sevens. I played it for 30 minutes building the meter up to almost $2000 and boom 25k.

    However I do still think luck has a lot to do with it.
     
  12. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    Based on the OP situation, there actually is one answer that actually would most likely be the "correct" decision. That is to play the machine that has hit more frequently. In this hypothetical situation, the OP stated it's the same game and denom, but not necessarily the same payback % setting. Therefore, the slot which has hit more, is more likely to have a better payback percentage than the other. Of course this could certainly just be a small variance in the two machines and the opposite is actually true, but it's more likely that one has a higher payback than the other.

    Of course if we're assuming it's the same payback % as well, then the correct answer is it doesn't matter (statistically speaking anyways).
     
  13. abrolsma

    abrolsma Low-Roller

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    who's sitting in the chairs next to the two slots? Is one a sloppy drunk falling asleep and the other a cute blond who used to be a cheerleader for the Cowboys? :)

    I'm new here - but I'm also a believer in the "luck" aspect. Though it's true the RNG is running constantly - you have to have luck to push the button at the exact, correct moment to match with a winning combination. Since all that math ruins my buzz - I choose to just believe there are magical gnomes in there providing my winning percentage and chiseling away on the TITO when I decide to cash out. I offer them gifts and talk to them during play. Which makes my gambling experience very lonely.
     
  14. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Good argument. I like it, but I wonder how often the machine would actually be in error.

    On virtually all VP machines in jurisdictions that allow video poker from a random, equally probable deck, the RNG is called when you hit the deal button, and called again when you draw your cards. So hitting a royal draw is a timing exercise/guessing game that I seem to fail miserably at.

    The oldest VP machines (circa 1980) called out 10 cards when you hit the deal button.


    Generally I think this is likely right too due to slot manufacturer laziness, but it doesn't have to be. Slot manufacturers have the ability to increase the variance of the game (which leads to more tax forms) while lowering the payback.

    Here is a simple example:

    Assume this is a 5 dollar machine and only the jackpot yields a W2-G:

    Award (in $5 units)...probability...return:

    Unit A:
    1000...1 in 50,000...0.02
    100...1 in 1000...0.10
    60...1 in 400...0.15
    25...1 in 100...0.25
    10...1 in 50...0.2
    3... 1 in 12...0.25

    Overall: 1 in 8.558 (for any win)...0.97 = 97% return

    Unit B:
    1000...1 in 25,000...0.04
    100...1 in 1000...0.10
    60...1 in 500...0.12
    25...1 in 100...0.25
    10...1 in 50...0.2
    3... 1 in 12...0.25

    Overall: 1 in 8.593 (for any win)...0.96 = 96% return

    Unit B should have twice as many jackpots but pays 1% less longterm.

    Another clear casino example of this is video poker at the $25 per hand level. On a 9/6 Jacks or Better machine, a W2G will be created only on a straight flush or royal flush. While on a 9/6 Double Double Bonus machine a W2G will be created with any 4 of a kind or better. So the DDB game will have tons more W2Gs, but it's max payback is 98.98% while it's 99.54% for JoB.
     
  15. jackincols

    jackincols Guest

    Thanks, tringlomane. That's what I was looking for.
     
  16. Ally Vegas

    Ally Vegas Tourist

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    I can't remember where I heard this, but do believe it to be true.... The RNG is absolutely random and it does matter when you press the button, but it also go goes through periods where is it cycling through more winning or more losing combinations. Thus, a "hot" machine really is hot and a "cold" machine is actually cold. This does not effect the payout over infinity, but supposedly, makes it more engaging to players over the short term.
     
  17. wanker751

    wanker751 Dutch Rudder Enthusiast

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    See I don't know if I buy the hot/cold theory, but I will always play a machine I was winning on before to recapture the magic!
     
    Downtown - Wanker Returns after baby!
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  18. Ally Vegas

    Ally Vegas Tourist

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    Haha! Same here...

    Curious, if others can credit or disprove, this... The example I was given Top Dollar. It's so famous because everyone that plays it, has had a "streak" they remember. The payouts are not that high, but when you keep getting the bonus you can build profit and excitement. You may go back another time and lose every spin until your "pain threshold" on the exact same machine, but will try again. Thoughts?
     
  19. meyers67

    meyers67 High-Roller

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    Agreed. It's like roulette. If a 14 came up 4 times in the past 20 spins, are you going to bet on 14 or on 36?
     
  20. mike841

    mike841 Low-Roller

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    To hell with the machine jackpot stats, I just follow around the unluckiest looking bastard in the high limit room and play all the machines he just left.
     
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