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Helping You Understand Bankroll Needs – Volatility

Discussion in 'Casino Gaming' started by westie, Aug 19, 2013.

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  1. westie

    westie VIP Whale

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  2. AlwaysVegas

    AlwaysVegas Low-Roller

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    Thank you for the wonderful link! I've been into the math behind gambling for quite some time, but hadn't explored variance very much.

    I've thrown around the term "volatility" quite a bit and how both slots and video poker have seemingly become increasingly volatile over the years. These charts sure support that....at least with video poker.

    Many people seem to enjoy the big wins on the bonus-bonus-triple-whipple-super-times-pay-deluxe machines, but in the few instances where I played the bonus machines and I don't get a bonus pronto...my bankroll literally makes a sound similar to the Titanic sinking, screams included.

    My play style is much more geared towards a slow decline with some small wins rather than a severe crash and burn before a big jump back up and then a quick descent back to oblivion.
     
  3. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Yeah, additions like Ultimate X and STP will significantly increase volatility. 7/5 Bonus with STP has about the same variance in terms of money wagered as standard 9/5 DDB does. Play DDB with STP, then it has a higher variance than standard loose deuces wild. Ultimate X is even worse.

    Slots also definitely have become more volatile. Partly because it's easier to hide poor paybacks underneath more volatile machines. Low volatility machines with poor paybacks will make it seem like you lose nearly all the time.
     
  4. WrongWayWade

    WrongWayWade VIP Whale

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    Most penny slots are much lower volatility games in that they often have a high hit rate (often well over 50%) but most of those hits are less than the wager. So saying that slots have become more volatile doesn't really sound right to me. I'd say the opposite is true. (My experience playing penny slots IS that you 'lose nearly all the time'. :wink2:)

    It's the old 3-reel machines where you can spin 25 times getting nothing back, and then hit 30 units on the next spin; those are the high volatility machines.
     
  5. Keyser Soze

    Keyser Soze Low-Roller

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    westie- that's a great article.

    Thanks for the link!
     
  6. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    I seem to keep screwing this up with I talk about this, although I didn't mention penny slots particularly in my post. :nono: Penny slots are quite volatile on a "per line" basis. But everyone only bets 1 to 5 cents on each line and you combine results from 29 or so other lines, so in terms of actual money wagered, penny slots are less volatile than a typical single line slot. However, when making comparisons among penny slots, they have become more volatile among themselves over time, I believe. I haven't seen PAR sheets to back that up though.
     
  7. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    Oh yes, they for sure have.

    In the first big era of video slots most of those were cheap to play (only 7-12 lines on most of them, 15 lines was usually the most you saw and that was considered A LOT of lines).

    But the "problem" was that the games were made with such low volatility that your money could seemingly last forever on the things. The casinos didn't like that because most people could stretch $20 in to hours of play and to the players the issue was that once you got a little down in your bankroll there was almost no way, short of hitting the top jackpot, that you could ever come back.

    From there games started becoming a little more volatile, which helped people get through their bankrolls faster, and bigger wins were produced which got more people playing.

    But from there it just kept going and thats about where we are now, where some machines have such a sky high volatility that even at 25 to 50 cents per spin they can suck a $20 down in now time, but at the same time you can hit jackpots in the hundreds of dollars with just a 25 to 50 cents spin.
     
  8. grosx2

    grosx2 VIP Whale

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    I know I've seen you mention several times which game is usually the highest payback bartop game at the CET props on the Strip....Triple something. Is that the Triple Double Bonus mentioned in the article with the highest volatility? :confused2:
     
  9. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    No, the one at the CET bars that I'll play is 7/5 Triple Bonus Plus (97.67% max). It's similar to DDB in terms of quad payouts with the kickers averaged in with a little extra added. Technically Quad 2-4s, and Quad Aces pay triple to what you expect in Bonus. Strategy is also quite similar to 8/5 DDB. The biggest exception I can recall is you'll break 2s-4s full now with this paytable.

    7/5 TB+
    Royal 800
    SF 100
    4 Aces 240
    4 2-4s 120
    4 5-K 50
    FH 7
    Flush 5
    Straight 4
    3K 3
    2P 1
    JoB 1
    Return 97.67%
    Variance 44.26

    8/5 DDB
    (article has full table: adjust FH to 8 and Flush to 5)
    Return 96.79%
    Variance 41.99

    The high variance game of TDB is similiar to the DDB table but makes 4 2-4s w/A-4 now pay 400 and 4 Aces w/2-4 pay 800 at the cost of 3K being 2 for 1 instead of 3 for 1.

    9/5 TDB
    Return 97.02%
    Variance 100.53

    Fwiw, I think CET bars only offer TDB at 8/5 (95.97% max).
     
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