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Hedging the NCAA Championship game

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by VegasLover8, Apr 8, 2013.

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  1. VegasLover8

    VegasLover8 Low-Roller

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    I've got Mich at 22-1 to win the NCAA Championship. We are not talking about large amounts of money here. I only bet $10. To make it more exciting to you large bettors on the board, add a couple zeroes to the numbers I am reporting here.

    Anyway Louisville is about -200 on the moneyline. Should I do a "full" hedge to guarantee about $70 in winnings. I would need to bet $150 on Louisville ML.

    Or just let it ride and "Go Blue"
     
  2. Coolcanuck79

    Coolcanuck79 Low-Roller

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    If it was more than $220 I would hedge so my reco is to let it ride. I am on Michigan tonight as well!
     
  3. saintpauljeff

    saintpauljeff VIP Whale

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    don't hedge, roll with Michigan on that $10 wager
     
  4. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    I would look at it this way: You’re guaranteed $70. So, you are basically faced with the opportunity to make a $70 bet on Michigan at roughly +300. Would you be willing to make that bet? If it were me, I’d take that in an instant. But you obviously have to do what you’re comfortable with.

    Or you could look at it from an emotional/excitement point of view: Are you a fan of Michigan or did you just make an astute and/or lucky pick? If you’re a fan, then the game will be plenty exciting for you whether you have money on it or not. So you might as well book the win. If you just made a good pick and could care less who wins, then maybe having big money (that only cost you $10) on it will help make the game extremely exciting for you when it might not have been otherwise.

    Either way, if it were my money/bet, I’d let it ride and hope I’m singing Hail To The Victors at the top of my lungs tonight!
     
  5. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    the only reason you hedge is because the amount of money on the table makes a big enough difference in your life and it makes more sense to lock in a portion than roll the dice. but for this small amount of money, that isn't really the case. unless the extra $70 guaranteed is going to really make a different in your life in which case i'd say definitely hedge.

    also, regardless of the amount of money at stake, a hedge in this case is just a bad deal. $220 at risk vs $70 guaranteed is terrible odds. if you were on Louisville at 22-1 and could hedge with Michigan at +180, that would make more sense.
     
  6. Pizzaman

    Pizzaman Low-Roller

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    A hedge belongs in your yard. Let it ride!!! Good luck.:beer:
     
  7. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    I'm really glad you asked the question... Carve and Shifter have shared some good insight. Though I'm not lucky enough to be faced with the decision tonight, I'm often faced with similar ones.
     
  8. Matty Ice

    Matty Ice Low-Roller

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    Don't hedge. Go Blue!!! That win will feel so much better.

    :beer:
     
  9. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    There's no wrong answer here. I don't think the size of the wager or the difference it would make in your life is the determining factor (I've seen people hedge small bets like this one and very large ones). Its really a question of how much you want to gamble. Do you want to lock in a guaranteed win, or gamble more and go for the bigger score? Like I said, no wrong answer to that. Just go with your gut
     
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